Welcome to MACtion

So the football weekend is over and you’re already looking ahead at the spreads for Thursday Night Football. While Arizona +3.5 is looking enticing already, I never recommend placing bets on a game this far in advance. Especially in 2020, you never know what earth-shaking changes may occur to screw you over before kickoff. But, if you’re already getting twitchy at the idea of not watching football for two more days, I’ve got one word for you: MACtion. Oh boy, if you’re a football fan and you don’t know about mid-week MACtion, clear your schedules. Not only does the MAC give us football fans games each Tuesday and Wednesday, but these games are ELECTRIC. Don’t believe me? Just go ahead and watch how the Western Michigan vs. Toledo game ended last week. I’ll wait.

The best highlight video of the final 3:30 of Western Michigan-Toledo (via @OldTakesExposed) pic.twitter.com/Us5JKkciI4

— Hustle Belt (@HustleBelt) November 12, 2020

Must-Watch TV

There was a missed extra point, a successful onside kick, and a fake spike touchdown to win the game. You’re probably thinking “surely this is one of the greatest games of all time.” Well first, this is standard issue, backyard rules, electric factory, MACtion football. And second, stop calling me Shirley. (Shoutout to Airplane!) So, I’m sure by now you’re sold on the entertainment value of these MAC football games. Not that you needed more motivation to watch football all seven days of the week.

Now you just need something to root for. I mean what could make the ending of that Western Michigan vs. Toledo better than watching it while holding the WMU moneyline. Putting stake into these games will turn weekday college football into must-watch tv. It’s nerve-racking to put your hard earned dollars on games where you barely know the team names, let alone the players. Well if that’s your worry, then you’re in the right place. Here, I’ll provide you with the best bet for each of the five MAC games this week. That way you can enjoy mid-week MACtion, and make some money doing it.

MACtion Bets: Bowling Green vs. Buffalo

The first game to kickoff for this week’s MACtion also boasts the largest spread of the five games. Buffalo is currently listed as a 30.5-point favorite over Bowling Green. Even though Buffalo has shown they may be the best team in the MAC, that’s a lot of points to lay, even against a bad Bowling Green squad. However, the talent of these teams isn’t the main factor I’m considering for my bet on this game. I’m looking at the weather.

This game will be held at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio. And if there’s one thing we know about Ohio in November, it’s that the weather is nothing to vacation in. Tuesday night’s forecast for this game is projecting 12 mph winds and sub-30 degree temperatures. These cold and windy weather conditions lead me to betting the under in this game. It makes sense. The colder and windier it is, the less likely that those big plays downfield can occur. Games in these conditions typically turn into run-heavy, defensive battles in the trenches, where game clocks rarely stop. Don’t believe me? Even Draftkings Sportsbook has dropped the over/under line from 61 to 58 over the past couple days.

As the temperature drops and wind speed increases, the point total sinks. And for that reason my favorite bet on this game is Under 58, which DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists at -112.

MACtion Bets: Kent State vs. Akron

Tonight must be the night of projected blowouts in MAC football. Kent State enters this home match-up with the Akron Zips as 27-point favorites. I wonder if Akron got their mascot name based on how many wins they get, zip. In 2019 they reached a perfect 0-12 in the L column. However, that’s not the worst part. The Zips managed to go an abysmal 1-11-0 ATS last season. That’s even worse considering how big of an underdog they were in many of those match-ups. And if you thought they were going to have a miraculous turnaround in 2020, cut that idea out now. They are off to an 0-2 start and haven’t shown much to be excited about.

Contrarily, Kent State has given fans a lot to be excited about in 2020. In their 2-0 start this season, they have proven to dominate the run game. In their first two games, they are averaging 253.5 rushing yards per game. However, Kent State is not a programs that is entirely dependent on the run game. Their senior QB Dustin Crum is averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt and only has one interception. That is pure efficiency. Look for one of Crum’s best weapons in Isaiah McKoy to have a big game yet again in this one. The 2019 MAC TD reception leader is already on pace to break his 2019 total of 8, as he has found the endzone three times in two games.

Bottom line, Akron just doesn’t have the level of players that Kent State has. One of the worst defenses in all of college football, matching up with one of the most dominant offenses in the MAC is a recipe for a blowout. I am taking Kent State -27 in this game which Draftkings Sportsbook has listed at -110.

MACtion Bets: Ball State vs. Northern Illinois

There is a lot to uncover in this match-up to find the best value bet. Ball State is off to a 1-1 start while NIU is currently 0-2. These teams seem evenly matched on paper, and their 2019 game strengthens that narrative as Ball State won 27-20. That is typical for Ball State as they seem to love close games. In fact, only one of their last six games has been decided by more than seven. This trend has led to them going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records. Lastly, Ball State’s defense has been awful so far in 2020. Through two games they have allowed 450 yards and 34.5 PPG.

Backing an 0-2 NIU can be scary, but comfort can be found in the fact that they are 10-1 against Ball State in their last eleven games. And while they are 0-2, those losses came against two of the best MAC teams in Buffalo and Central Michigan. Also, NIU is currently averaging an astonishing four fumbles per game this year. With a stat like, someone should investigate if there’s a New England Patriot handling those footballs pre-game. However, I don’t think those turnover troubles are sustainable, and extra possessions can be game changers.

Ball State’s tendency to stay within one score and their inability to cover spreads scares me off of betting them. I think NIU is going to be able to clean up their mistakes in this match-up, and will be able to expose a weak Ball State defense. I’m taking the points and going with Northern Illinois in this one. The spread is currently NIU +13.5, but I recommend buying another half point to make it an even +14. The line for NIU +14 on Draftkings Sportsbook is currently -120.

MACtion Bets: Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan

Ah the Battle for the Victory Cannon. One of the greatest rivalries you’ve never heard of. These two teams are perennial MAC powerhouses, and the winner could likely end up winning the MAC West. Both teams are 2-0 so far in 2020, but CMU enters as 2.5-point favorites. But in even matchups like this, I tend to look at the over/under line rather than the spread.

Western Michigan’s offense has been solid so far. QB Kaleb Eleby has been the picture of efficiency as he is completing 70 percent of his passes for 546 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. On the ground they have also been effective, as the WMU offense averages 5.5 yards per carry. And WMU is capable of scoring late in shootouts as well (See the ending of the Toledo game above). Now, CMU is the best defense WMU has played this year, but I still expect that offense to be humming as CMU’s defensive weakness is in the passing game.

Central Michigan has boasted one of the best running games in the FBS. CMU is rushing for over 200 yards per game so far this season. This game matches up well for CMU as WMU’s defense has proven to be vulnerable. Just last week against Toledo they allowed Toledo to hang over 500 yards of offense on them, and I expect CMU to be just as effective.

Through the first two weeks of the 2020 MAC season, these two teams have averaged 84.5 PPG in their four combined games. The over/under line currently sits at 59.5. With two offenses that are capable of scoring at a high clip, I expect the total points in this game to clear that total easily. I’m betting over 59.5 here, which Draftkings Sportsbook currently lists at -112 odds.

MACtion Bets: Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo

Toledo suffered a heartbreaker to WMU last week, but their performance showed a lot to be excited about offensively. They are currently the eleventh ranked offense in all of FBS as they are averaging 512.5 yards per game. QB Eli Peters has especially been impressive as he has thrown for 553 yards and 5 TDs, with only 1 interception.

However, while Toledo’s offense may be the best unit in this game, I am focusing more on what EMU has been doing. They are 0-2, but they have been much closer in these games than the oddsmakers give them credit for. EMU covered the spread in both of their losses and lost by less than five both times. Also, these losses came on back-to-back road games to good teams in Kent State and Ball State. EMU also has a game changer in dual-threat QB Preston Hutchinson. Hutchinson is currently the leading rusher for EMU, and in bad Michigan weather, a running QB is very valuable because it allows for the runner to get 10 blockers.

While there is a lot I like about Toledo’s offense, I just can’t go against EMU’s tendency to cover spreads. They have covered the spread in five of their last six games, and I think they make it six of seven in their first home match of 2020. In addition, Toledo has only covered the spread in one of their last six games. Also, they are a shocking 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games. While I think Toledo may win this game, I am all in on EMU to cover the spread. The spread is currently +6.5 so I again recommend buying a half point to make it an even +7. The current Draftkings Sportsbook line for EMU +7 is -122.

Winning Time

Nothing enhances a Tuesday and Wednesday night like some good old fashioned MAC football. Hopefully through the analysis above, you were able to walk away with some picks that you would like to follow to get in on the MACtion. For a chance at a higher profit, I also recommend combining some of the picks into a parlay. If you take the parlay route, I recommend selling a few more points on each leg of the parlay to increase your chances that every leg hits, and pay day comes your way. However, whether its a parlay or some single-bets, getting some stake in the mid-week MACtion is always a great way to end a busy day of grinding. As always please bet responsibly, and good luck!

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