We’re back! My second rendition of MLB Best Bets is finally here following a debut in which we went .500. I’ve got two more picks for Friday night’s 15-game slate. We’ll start with a matchup between two American League pennant hopefuls and conclude with the second meeting of many between a pair of teams looking to take home the NL East crown.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Two of the favorites in the NL East are set to meet for games four, five, and six of the season this weekend at Citi Field. The Phillies enter the series red-hot, having just completed a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies, and will be looking to make a dent in the Mets’ four-game lead in the division.

Aaron Nola and Tylor Megill, the probable pitchers in this one, have fared well. Megill, in particular, has shone to start the season. The 26-year-old possesses a stellar 2.35 ERA supported by a 0.91 WHIP. However, his profile suggests that regression could soon come for the right-hander.

Megill ranks in the 23rd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 49th percentile in xSLG, not awful numbers by any means, but not what you’d expect from a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. Megill fared well against Bryce Harper and co. on April 12, throwing 5.1 shutout innings en route to his second victory of the year, but I don’t anticipate he’ll have the same success tonight.

Expect Runs in the Early Innings

The Phillies bats have bet stellar as of late, scoring seven runs or more in each of their last four games. Additionally, this season, Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 in AVG, OPS, and SLG against right-handers. Given their recent form and familiarity with Megill, I suspect more success for the Phillies lineup this time around.

The Mets have been Major League Baseball’s best team thus far, as their 14-6 record is the best in the sport. New York’s bats have been great thus far, ranking sixth in runs per game at 4.70. They’ve thrived against right-handed pitchers early on as they lead baseball with a 132 wRC+ and .345 wOBA against righties.

New York will face Aaron Nola, a right-hander, on Friday evening. Nola’s pitched quite well this season but struggled against the Mets on April 13, allowing 3 ER in just 3.1 IP. While I don’t anticipate he’ll fail to make it out of the fourth inning tonight, I do expect the Mets to have some success yet again.

Nola’s been allowing a lot of hard contact in 2022. His Barrel% ranks in the 17th percentile, while his 30th percentile Avg Exit Velocity is poor. As was the case with Megill, the Mets’ familiarity with Nola and their overall success at the plate this season leads me to believe he could struggle on Friday night.

These two teams combine to average 9.5 runs per contest this season. Let’s hope for more of the same tonight.

The Pick: Over 3.5 F5 (+105 at Fanduel)

Houston Astros @ Toronto Bluejays

The reigning American League champion Houston Astros are set to visit this year’s betting favorites in the AL as part of a three-game set this weekend. The series gets underway tonight at 7:07 EST and will see right-hander José Urquidy don the mound for the ‘Stros while southpaw Yusei Kikuchi does so for Toronto.

Both starters have struggled mightily through three starts this season. Urquidy’s 5.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP showcase that the Mexican has not had his best stuff in the early going. Furthermore, Urquidy’s punching out a measly 4.30 batters per nine innings, ranking in the sixth percentile amongst pitchers.

Back the Over in This One

Like Urquidy, Kikuchi has also failed to impress despite coming in a small sample. The former Seattle Mariner is sporting a horrendous 6.23 FIP and even more disgusting 1.75 WHIP through 12 innings. Kikuchi’s failed to find his command early on, as he’s walked 10 batters throughout his three appearances.

With both starters struggling thus far, I expect runs early in this one. Although both lineups have struggled by their mighty standards in the opening month, I see tonight’s contest as a get-right spot. Houston led all of baseball with a 117 wRC+ against left-handers last season and have fared well against Kikuchi in the past. The latest proof of this came on April 24 when they tagged him for four runs in just 3.2 IP.

The Blue Jays also have the luxury of facing Urquidy for the second time in a week. Despite compiling seven baserunners in the 5.2 IP he was on the mound Saturday, Toronto only mustered two runs. I don’t expect Urquidy to be so fortunate this time around. Only the Astros did better than Toronto’s 111 wRC+ against RHPs in 2021. Although that number is down to 107 this season, familiarity with Urquidy’s arsenal should allow them to thrive.

Although these two teams went over the total just once in their series last weekend, I think we’ll see some runs inside the Rogers Centre on Friday.

The Pick: Over 8.5 (-102 at Fanduel)

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