Welcome back to another rendition of MLB Best Bets here on Belly Up Sports. We struggled last time out, as we faded a no-hitter and came nowhere close on an F5 under. I’ve got a couple of picks I like tonight and am confident we can get back into the win column.

With that being said, here are my two favorite plays on Monday’s Major League Baseball slate.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Two of the more disappointing teams are set to face off in Atlanta Monday evening, as the hometown Braves welcome the Phillies to town for a four-game set. Both teams enter play with a lackluster 19-22 record and eight games back of the Mets in the NL East.

Zack Wheeler and Tucker Davidson are set to oppose each other in game one. Wheeler, last 2021’s NL Cy Young runner-up, has been excellent as of late. The right-hander has allowed just three earned runs in 20 innings in May. As for Davidson, he’s thrown just 7.2 innings this season and 29.1 for the entirety of his Major League career.

Although Wheeler enters Monday with a 3.49 ERA, that number is heavily inflated by back-to-back rough outings in April. He was tagged for 11 ER in just 8 IP in consecutive starts. Since those appearances, Wheeler’s been back to his dominant self, allowing just three earned runs in 26 innings, including three separate starts in which he didn’t allow a run.

A major component of Wheeler’s recent success has been his ability to generate swings at pitches out of the strike zone. His 90th percentile Chase Rate has made it difficult for hitters to generate hard contact against him. Wheeler’s Barrel Rate ranks in the 80th percentile, inching closer towards 2021s, which was better than 91 percent of pitchers. As you’d expect, swings at pitches outside the strike zone have also led to a fair number of strikeouts. Wheeler’s striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings across his last four starts.

Question Marks Surrounding Davidson

Davidson has made just two appearances in 2022. In his first outing — a relief appearance against the Washington Nationals — he surrendered five runs in just 2.2 IP. However, he went five scoreless in his second appearance — a start against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Davidson was demoted to AAA following his first outing of the season, where he pitched to a 4.44 ERA in five starts. Far from elite. Although the sample size is small, I think it’s fair to assume Davidson is most likely a below-average Major League pitcher for 2022. He is not a Top 100 prospect and owns a career ERA of 4.60 at the big league level. Therefore, I expect the likes of Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto to give Wheeler the run support he needs Monday night.

The pick: Phillies ML (-125 at WynnBet)

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

On Monday, two of the NL’s best will meet at Petco Park for the first of three games. Manny Machado and the 27-14 San Diego Padres will host the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers at 9:40 p.m. EST. The Padres enter the series having won six of their past seven games, while Milwaukee has won three of their last four.

Both teams will send a back-end starter to the hill to get this series underway. For San Diego, it’ll be Nick Martinez, who Adrian Houser will oppose. Neither of these pitchers is a world-beater, but they’re quality Major League pitchers — at least one is.

Martinez is pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2017 this season. The former Texas Ranger spent the past four seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Martinez owns a career ERA of 4.70 in 450 career MLB innings. This season, his ERA is a respectable 3.89, but his 4.66 xERA is much more in line with his career numbers.

The Splits Favor Milwaukee

Opposing hitters tend to make a lot of hard contact against Martinez. His Barrel% ranks in the ninth percentile so far this season. In 2017, Martinez’s Barrel% finished in the 11th percentile in his most recent MLB season. This could be a recipe for disaster against a Brewers team that ranks fourth in HardHit% against right-handed pitchers this season.

Milwaukee has been excellent against right-handers in 2022, ranking third in OPS and fourth in SLG. The Padres, on the other hand, have struggled when facing righties this season. Their 90 wRC+ is 22nd in baseball, and their .647 OPS is 24th. San Diego’s struggles should allow Houser to navigate the Padres’ lineup without allowing much damage.

Adrian Houser is arguably the best fifth starter in Major League Baseball. As he’s part of a rotation that includes Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta, you don’t often hear about the 29-year-old right-hander, but he quietly gives the Brewers quality often than not. This season, in 36.1 IP, Houser possesses a 3.22 ERA and 3.15 FIP, top 20 marks amongst NL pitchers.

Houser doesn’t rely on strikeouts to get outs but a rather weak contact. His Barrel% has ranked in the 89th percentile in both 2021 and 2022. Additionally, his Average Exit Velocity and HardHit% are better than the average pitcher. Once Houser exits, manager Craig Counsell will have the ability to hand the ball to Devin Williams and Josh Hader. Both of which are fully rested after combining to pitch just 0.1 IP the past two games.

The pick: Brewers ML (+100 at DraftKings)

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