Monday Night

Welcome back everybody to another edition of Monday Night Madness. This is my personal guide to all of the highest value prop bets for Monday Night Football. And what a matchup we have this week. The king of the retirement home, Tom Brady, facing off against his long-lost grandson Sean McVay for the first time since the worst Super Bowl in the modern era. Can you spell E-L-E-C-T-R-I-C-I-T-Y? You don’t have to, I just did for you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This matchup will look a little different than the 2019 Super Bowl slugfest. First off, Tom Brady is no longer playing for the risk-adverse, human cutoff hoodie, Bill Belichick. Instead, he is now playing for known risk-taker, Bruce Arians, who has proven he is not above throwing the GOAT under the bus anytime they lose. However, being under fire from his own head coach has not seemed to bother Brady. Probably because Brady finally has some semblance of offensive weaponry in Tampa, that Belichick just would not provide him in Foxborough. I mean seriously, the difference in offensive personnel looks like the MonStars from Space Jam before and after they stole all that athletic ability. It’s not even close.

Los Angeles Rams

Now the Los Angeles Rams don’t look too much different than they did during their Super Bowl run two seasons ago. One major difference, however, is that they are no longer taking a second mortgage out on SoFi Stadium just to pay for Todd Gurley‘s arthritic knees. They are now joining the group of NFL teams who fantasy football managers despise because of their “running back by committee” approach. The three-headed monster of Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers has been more than effective this year. That is bad news for all the young running backs coming into the league, as it continues to prove that paying a running back the big bucks is not a cost effective decision.

That money could be better spent paying other positions, such as they QB’s primary pass protector, the left tackle. Fortunately for the Rams, they have one of the best LT’s in the league with Andrew Whitworth. Unfortunately for the Rams, Whitworth will miss this Monday night game with a knee injury. That is bad news for the Rams, as Tampa boasts a top 5 defense in the NFL with a solid pass rush. Jared Goff, who is known for struggling under pressure, will likely be under heat all night long.

Betting Time

Week 11 has been one of the best weeks of the NFL season so far in 2020 starting the week with Seahawks vs. Cardinals, and ending on Buccaneers vs. Rams. This week has had many good matchups, with some of the best coming in the primetime slots. That is good for football fans, and great for betting fans. Betting on the primetime games always adds extra excitement. That excitement multiplies exponentially when you get to watch actual playoff teams face-off instead of a live-action remake of Little Giants. This Monday Night Football matchup offers a lot of value on the betting slate. Personally, I like the Buccaneers -4.5 in this game. Missing Andrew Whitworth is massive for the Rams in this one. Also, I think Tampa will look to redeem themselves after looking weak in their past couple primetime games.

However, this article is a guide to the best prop bets for Monday Night Football. A place where you can find extra dollars in the margins of the game, to keep your account full, and the bets rolling. So, let’s take a look at the best prop bets for Week 11’s Monday Night Madness.

Prop Bets: Bucs Running Backs

So the Buccaneers backfield may be one of the most confusing backfields in the NFL. For example, in Week 9, Jones fumbled on the opening possession and was basically benched thereafter. But then, in Week 10 he fumbled on the opening drive again, and went on to get 198 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Albeit the touchdown accounted for 98 yards on one play, but still. Jones and Fournette have both been heavily involved in this offense. The trick is guessing who will get hot each week. It’s like a bet within the bet.

My only insight into this situation is that Fournette seems to be much more involved in the passing game. That has led to him being more of a feature back in close games, while Jones tends to go off in big wins. In a matchup with a phenomenal Rams defense, I expect Fournette to get the majority of snaps in this game. Also, with a scary pass rush headlined by Aaron Donald, I expect Brady will often look to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Therefore, I have two good prop bets for the Bucs backfield in this game. First, Ronald Jones under 12.5 receiving yards has value at -112 on Draftkings Sportsbook. Also, Fournette over 21.5 receiving yards shows value for the same reason. I expect Tampa to throw to the Fournette, and not Jones, quite a bit in this one.

Prop Bets: Jared Goff

Jared Goff has been no better than a middle of the pack QB in 2020. He’s shown some bright spots, but has only managed to throw 3 TD’s once this year. Additionally, he has thrown 6 interceptions through 9 games. Now, he enters a game against one of the league’s best defenses without his blind side pass protector. That is a recipe for a long night for Goff, as he is one of the worst QB’s in the league under pressure. He plays great within McVay’s scheme, but when plays break down, so does Goff.

In this matchup, I think Goff will be put in situations where he has to improvise quite often. For that reason, I am putting money on Jared Goff over 0.5 an interception. This line for Goff to throw a pick is currently -150 on Draftkings Sportsbook.

Prop Bets: Mike Evans

Mike Evans has proven for years that he is an elite receiver in this league. In many weeks his play can prove him to be a top five receiver. However, opposing coaches know this as well. And Sean McVay is an excellent coach with one of the best coverage corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey. Jalen Ramsey is likely to cover Evans for a majority of this game as they both tend to lineup on the outside. This will likely limit the number of times Evans is able to get open for Brady. This is among the many reasons I believe Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions shows value at -129 on Draftkings Sportsbook.

In addition, Evans is only one member of a star-studded Tampa receiving core. In an offense that boasts pass catchers like Gronkowski, Godwin, Brown, and Fournette, the ball gets spread around quite a bit. Additionally, Evans is a prototypical, deep-ball, possession receiver. This is typically a great fit for a Bruce Arians offense. However, the matchup with the Rams may limit his number of targets. Not only is lockdown corner Jalen Ramsey on the field, but so is Aaron Donald. The pressure that Donald and the Rams’ D-line can create is game changing. I don’t anticipate Brady will have much time for deep routes to develop tonight. Therefore, I think more balls will find their way to backs and slot receivers tonight compared to Mike Evans. This further enforces my prediction that Evans gets under 4.5 receptions on Monday Night Football.

Winning Time

So we have made it to another Monday Night Football game, and it’s looking like a great matchup. If you want to win some money tonight, I recommend putting money on some of the prop bets I listed above. Expect the Rams passing offense to struggle, and the Tampa passing offense to thrive in the short passing game. I expect the game itself to be a defensive battle throughout, with Tampa prevailing because they have the QB who is better under pressure at finding open receivers close to the line. The best prop bets in this one will be the ones that follow those trends.

That being said, let’s all win some money tonight and enjoy another fantastic Monday Night Football matchup. As always, please bet responsibly and good luck!

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