It is the most wonderful time of the year again, and no I am not talking about Christmas. Tonight, we are looking for quarterback busts. It does not mean these players will be awful, but they may not meet their draft value.

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I myself have already taken part in two slow drafts the likes of Scott Fish Bowl and the BellyUp Bowl. In both of these drafts I have found myself, like most drafters, looking for the gems and avoiding the busts. So, I am here so you can navigate as much as of this as possible.

Let’s first define our parameters for a bust candidate. A player is a bust when he drops below a positional tier than his ADP. According to Fantasy Pros ADP Consensus, Patrick Mahomes is being drafted as the second ranked quarterback. If he were to finish outside of a QB1 than he would have busted for me.

There are backend QB1s who could very easily drift to the QB2 range and not be considered a bust. Let’s keep this nice and simple then. The bust threshold for quarterbacks will be a drop of 10 ranking spots.

The below Quarterbacks are those I believe have the best chance at finishing at least 7-10 ranks lower than their current ADP. Let’s get in to it.

Quarterbacks Who Don’t Earn A Quarter Back

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – ADP34(QB2)

I know I may piss some people off with this one. I believe the situation in Kansas City could be a little more volatile than it is stable. He is also ranked so high and has so many talented quarterbacks with high-power weapons behind him.

What I saw last year was a player who struggled at times with having to scramble and make creative plays. He could pull it off most times with his right hand speedster Tyreek Hill, but he is gone. I am worried that when Mahomes has to get creative, it won’t work out the same.

Coming in with a mess of a backfield, I believe Mahomes will have to put the team on his back. The question becomes, is that going to pay off in fantasy points more than some other guys ranked lower? That is why the price for Mahomes given the potential risk of meeting that price makes me hesitant to pay compared to some other players around him.

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – ADP66(QB7)

The same reason why I have stayed away from the likes of Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard is a reason why I think Prescott could miss on hitting his current value. The Cowboys for a long time now have had a league leading offensive line that have helped produce some amazing seasons out of Zeke and Dak. That offensive line is going to look aged and different this year. They lost a few key spots and have had to look to the draft to prepare for the future.

On top of having some potentially questionable protection, Prescott also lost Amari Cooper to the Browns and will now be relying on CeeDee Lamb as a number one receiver and Michael Gallup as his number two. This could work out, but there is the possibility that Lamb is most successful as a slot receiver and that Gallup will not be able to fill the down the field role they need him to be. Cedric Wilson is someone that could have had success in the slot for them, but they lost him to the Dolphins. The key here could be the development of Jalen Tolbert.

Given the offensive line downgrade, the loss of receivers, and the addition of less than spectacular options the likes of James Washington, I think there is reason for concern in Dallas and for Prescott owners.

Justin Fields – Chicago Bears – ADP120(QB18)

I think Fields has upside and maybe even a future in the NFL. This is not going to be the year we see that though. I have been very wary of his number one option in Darnell Mooney, who I believe is getting way to much hype. His draft value has been solely tied to the fact that he is technically the team’s first option at the position. I don’t see him as that kind of player.

Behind Mooney you have a collection of guys looking for a second chance or rookies. That is not to say one of them cannot develop in to something, but I am not taking that chance as my QB2 if I am in a SF league.

Cole Kmet is probably going to be the most reliable option for Fields, so I expect Kmet to do fairly well this season just based on volume, but Field lacks a top end weapon and I do not believe he is ready to carry the load of the team.

Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – ADP94(QB10)

I will say, this one is not going to be as big a drop as 10 rankings like I said earlier. Currently as the QB10, I would not be shocked if Rodgers ended the season around the QB15 area. What makes Rodgers a bust for me though, is that when it comes to the positional tier of quarterbacks he is currently right in the range of Wilson and Stafford before there is a significant drop in draft value to some more riskier picks. There is a chance someone takes Rodgers in the draft in fear of being stuck with a riskier option and having it not turn out.

Outside of the ADP reasoning, let’s look at the team. No more Davante Adams and no more MVS. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was not flashy, but was the teams second option. Instead Rodgers has to work with Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins. Cobb is aging and Lazard and Watkins are very inconsistent. The bright spot could be the development of Christian Watson.

It is possible the team leans heavily on the run game and their defense, which could slow down the pace for the offense. This could reduce the potential ceiling that Rodgers and the offense has a whole. Either way, it may not be a big drop, but I could see Rodgers underperforming his price given what you could miss out on at other positions to draft him.

Can We Avoid The Quarterback Busts?

If we can identify players at a position we believe are busts at quarterback, then we can reshape the landscape of our draft board. It opens up possibilities for different draft strategies when we buy in to our own research to not reach for a player just based on their name or past performance. Trust your research and draft accordingly. That is all we can do, and then we can pivot in-season.

Be on the look out for my busts at the RB, WR, and TE positions coming out in the coming days. Draft safe, draft fun, and draft with purpose.

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