Happy Friday! Today we will be looking at all things NBA, and I will break down the betting guide with extreme precision so you know what to fade and what to nuke. It is the start of the weekend, and we have great playoff basketball– all is right in the world.

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis and the Bucks came into TD Garden, stole Game 5, and are looking to close the series tonight. This season Milwaukee is 15-27 ATS as an at-home favorite and 25-32 ATS after a win, so all early indicators point toward Boston, and these numbers are too hard to ignore. Milwaukee has opened up at -1.5, and we are going the other way: Boston +1.5. Some of you may be asking why I would bet against Giannis, one of the most dominant forces in the league, in a close-out game. The ATS record, as mentioned earlier, combined with Boston being 20-13 this season ATS after a loss and being 15-8-2 as an away underdog, is too hard to pass up. Yes, I know that Milwaukee has Giannis, but the Celtics have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Moving on. The O/U is set at 211.0, and we are smashing the Under. Boston is hitting the under this season at 51.1%, while Milwaukee is hitting it at 50.5%. Even with the last two games going over the 211 mark, we stay true to the numbers and take the under.

Prop plays of the day:

• Giannis o0.5 3PM- This is a prop that has hit 3 out of the last five games. Per 100 possessions, Antetokounmpo takes 5.3 threes and hits at a 29.3% clip. I see tonight’s game hitting around 106 possessions and feel confident in the two-time MVP connecting from deep at least once in this game.
• Al Horford o25.5 PRA- Al Horford has played extremely well throughout the playoff–especially in this series– and will continue this trend tonight. On the season, he is averaging 10/7/3, but per 100 possessions, he is hitting 17/13/5. I expect him to put in somewhere around 16 points, eight rebounds, and three assists tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Memphis obliterated the Warriors last game without their best player, Ja Morant, who is likely out for the remainder of the playoffs due to injury. To say that was a surprise would be a gross injustice to how bad it was. Nonetheless, this is the playoffs, and crazy things happen. Golden State opened at -8 tonight, and even without Ja Morant, that number is way too high. Memphis is the best team in the NBA when it comes to covering the spread. They are 7-4 in the playoffs, 12-9-1 as an away underdog, and 59-33-1 on the season. I do think that GSW closes the series tonight, but I am taking Memphis +8 while I can still get it at that.

Prop plays of the day:

• Steph Curry o3.5 3PM- This should speak for itself when talking about the greatest shooter ever to play. Curry averages 4.5 made threes on the season.
• Andrew Wiggins o15.5 points- Wiggins is averaging 17.2 points on the year and has went over this mark every game this series except the blowout game 5.

“I can stop gambling, I have a competition problem, a competitive problem.”

Junebug

Remember, please bet responsibly. If you have a problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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