Saturday, October 05, 2024

Gambling

Best Bets to Place on the NCAA Tournament

Can we actually believe that the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is upon us? Yes we can! After the tourney was cancelled in 2020 due to the coronavirus, this year it is full speed ahead! The excitement of last second victories and shocking upsets begin this weekend. With a full slate of games, it may be difficult to nail down which of them are the best to make a bet on. No need to fear! Belly Up Sports is here to help, as always! Here are the NCAA tournament best bets, one from each region. Let’s dive right in, shall we?

East Region: #12 Georgetown vs. #5 Colorado

2021 Big East Tournament game preview: Georgetown Hoyas - VU Hoops

It wouldn’t be an NCAA tournament unless there was a twelve seed upsetting a five seed, now would it? Of course it wouldn’t. Twelve seeds have made the upset a routine part of tourney lore through the years. Over the part 40 seasons, a twelve has beaten a five seed 50 times! In fact, during that period, there have been only five tournaments where such an upset didn’t happen- 1988, 2000. 2007, 2015 and 2018. With all of that in mind, it must be decided which of this year’s match ups is the best pick? The answer to that question is Georgetown against Colorado.

Georgetown Hoyas

Aside from Gonzaga, which has yet to lose this season, few teams come into this tournament hotter than the Hoyas. Of course, they had to be hot or they wouldn’t have even made the field. Regardless, they are here after winning their last four to secure the Big East tournament championship. Along the way, Georgetown beat number one seeded Villanova and crushed the number two seed Creighton, 73-48. The Hoyas have also won six of their last seven.

It is known that outstanding guard play is a must to succeed in the NCAA tournament. Georgetown has that in senior Jahvon Blair. He leads the team in both scoring (15.8) and assists (3.7) per game. In addition, the Hoyas have four players on the roster averaging double figures in points. Colorado will have a hard time guarding all of their scorers.

Colorado Buffaloes

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes come in with an impressive looking 22-8 record, qualifying them for third in the Pacific Twelve Conference. The record looks great until it is considered that Colorado only beat four ranked teams the entire season. None of those teams were even in the top 20. Further, it must be conceded that the Pac-12 is not the toughest of the power five conferences. Colorado isn’t nearly as battle tested as Georgetown, which faced two top 20 teams in their last three games.

The Buffaloes are led by an impressive senior guard of their own in McKinley Wright. He averages 15.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists. However, Wight is the only guard on the team that averages in double figures in scoring. Colorado also has issues rebounding the basketball as the leading rebounder averages only 5.8 per game.

The Line: Colorado minus five

The pick: Not only do I think that Georgetown will win the game outright, but the five point spread is too difficult to ignore. Take the Hoyas plus the points.

West Region: #8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Missouri

Brady Manek - 2020-21 - Men's Basketball - University of Oklahoma

It is certainly true that the eight versus nine seed games are the hardest to predict going into any tournament. Even so, that is the next selection on this NCAA tournament best bet edition.

Missouri Tigers

Missouri comes into the this West region matchup with a 16-9 overall record and 8-8 in the Southeast Conference. The Oklahoma Sooners have a 15-10 record and were 9-8 in the Big 12. It would seem that Missouri has the better chance to win, right? Not so fast, my friends!

Looking into the Tigers’ record, it is revealed that they are sliding as they enter the dance. Missouri has won just three of their last nine games. Only one of those games was against a ranked team, Arkansas. Their last win was by only three points over a tenth seeded Georgia team. The SEC is not the power in basketball that it is in football. The Tigers only finished .500 in the league, which is not impressive in the least.

Missouri has a couple of experienced guards leading the team in senior Dru Smith (14.1/3.5/3.9) and junior Xavier Pinson (14.1/2.8/2.8). However, there is only one other player on the roster that averages in double digits.

Oklahoma Sooners

Meanwhile, the Sooners will have the best guard on the floor in senior Austin Reaves, who leads the team in scoring (17.7), rebounding (5.7) and assists (4.7). In addition, Oklahoma has another outstanding guard in sophomore De’Vion Harmon (12.9/3.4/2.1). Harmon also shoots 47.4 percent from the field. Advantage Oklahoma.

Oklahoma comes into the tournament about as battle tested as any team. Nine of the Sooners’ last 13 opponents were ranked. There is no question that the Big 12 is a much tougher conference than the SEC. Even so, Oklahoma finished with a winning conference record.

The Line: Oklahoma minus two

The pick: All signs point to Oklahoma as the better team. Take the Sooners minus the points to win the game.

Midwest Region: #10 Rutgers vs. #7 Clemson

Rutgers men's basketball is going dancing this year

It happens every tournament. The selection show announces a team’s seeding and immediately the entire nation is mystified. This year is no exception and that team in the Clemson Tigers. As a big Clemson fan, it pains me to type that statement. However, the Tigers finished the season in a terrible funk. An ugly loss to Miami in the first round of the Atlantic Coast Conference will do that.

Clemson Tigers

In fact, Clemson lost two of their last three games. When I saw the score of the Miami game, it was assumed that the Tigers would be on the bubble and it wouldn’t be a shock if they missed the tournament entirely. Imagine the surprise when it was announced Clemson was somehow the number seven seed in the MidWest Region. That makes no sense considering Georgia Tech, which won the ACC tournament title, was seeded ninth in the same region. Anyone out there that can explain that, please do so.

At any rate, the Tigers final record looks impressive enough- 16-7 overall, 10-6 in the ACC. However, Clemson was only 2-5 away from home. Of course, that is a huge problem. They do have an impressive front court player in senior forward Aamir Simms, who leads the team in scoring, rebounding and assists.

However, there isn’t another player that averages in double figures on the team. As noted earlier, solid guard play is a fundamental piece for a team’s tournament success. The Tigers simply don’t have that. Truth be told, it doesn’t look good for Clemson. As a fan, that is truly a terrible sentence to have to write.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

At the same time, everything sets up well for Rutgers, even if their record isn’t nearly as impressive as Clemson’s. The Scarlet Knights come into the tournament with a 15-11 record, with a 10-10 finish in the Big Ten. The ACC wasn’t nearly the basketball hotbed that it normally is this season, but the Big Ten had no such problems. The conference qualified nine teams in the dance, including two number one seeds and two number two seeds.

The fact that Rutgers was able to finish with a .500 conference record having to play all of those outstanding teams is a feat in and of itself. The Knights won three of four before losing to Illinois in the conference tournament. There certainly is no shame in that. Unlike Clemson, Rutgers has a guard centered team that is long on experience. The leader is junior Ron Harper, who averages 15.4 PPG. The Scarlet Knights also have seniors Jacob Young and Geo Baker in the back court. No question that is a big advantage for the Knights. Rutgers is the surest bet to be found on this NCAA tournament

The Line: Rutgers minus one

The Pick: It would be interesting to see how many lower seeded teams have been the underdogs in tournament history. That is the case here and the establishment knows what it is talking about. Rutgers is the better team. Take the Scarlet Knights minus the point.

South Region: #12 Winthrop vs. #5 Villanova

Men's Basketball - Winthrop University Athletics

This is another twelve versus five upset that is just screaming for attention. The biggest reason for this is some unfortunate injuries suffered by Villanova. Since we are searching for the best of bets, that information certainly helps in selecting this game.

Winthrop Eagles

Talk about hot. Winthrop comes roaring into tourney play with the fewest losses next to Gonzaga in the nation- one. However, it isn’t just the fact that the Eagles have won, but how they’ve won. Winthrop won all three games in the Big South tournament by an average of 26 points. No question the Big South is no one’s idea of a power basketball conference. Even so, that is impressive.

Of course, to be taken seriously in the tournament, strong guard play is necessary. The Eagles have that in spades in senior Chandler Vaudrin, who leads the team in scoring (12.2), rebounding (7.2) and assists (6.9). Winthrop, much like Rutgers, has a guard centered team. They spread the ball as four players average in double figures. The Eagles have the look of a mid-major team to be reckoned with.

Villanova Wildcats

Unlike Winthrop, Villanova cannot be mistaken for a mid-major program. After all, the Wildcats won two national championships in a three year span (2016 and 2018). Unfortunately, Villanova brings none of that magic into this tournament. Star point guard Collin Gillespie was lost for the season earlier in the month with a torn MCL. 14 points and 14.6 assists per game were his averages. That is a huge loss.

Unfortunately, the injury news doesn’t stop there. Fellow guard Justin Moore severely sprained an ankle earlier this month. He returned to come off the bench against Georgetown and scored 10 points. If he is not 100 percent, the Wildcats are really hurting in their back court. That is not a formula for success in March.

With all of that negativity going on, it is not surprising that Villanova lost three of their last four games. Two of the loses were by a combined three points, but they were loses nonetheless. The team is no doubt confident they can overcome any obstacle. The rest of us, however, shouldn’t be feeling the same way.

The Line: Villanova minus 6.5

The Pick: There is far too much momentum going for Winthrop and not nearly enough for Villanova. The Wildcats can certainly win this game, but that 6.5 point spread is far too generous. Take Winthrop plus the points to at least cover, if not win the game outright.

Thanks all for joining me for this NCAA tournament best bets! As always, I welcome input and reactions from all of my readers. Let me know if you agree or disagree with my selections. Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea, and be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Picks for all the latest college basketball tournament and sports news!