Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football

NFC Wild Card Saturday Preview

The NFL Playoffs are here! Many of us in the fantasy football community are licking our wounds and looking to next year, while a select few are still toasting their successes from this past season. But there are those of us who aren’t quite ready to leave the thrill of the chase behind (no pun intended.) There are still daily contests to be played, as well as playoff fantasy leagues. I’ve released my playoff league rankings and will be updating my weekly rankings throughout the playoffs. Think of the weekly rundown as my DFS rankings for the week. We’ll also be previewing each individual game’s fantasy prospects. We start with the NFC Wild Card Saturday game between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers. The game airs on FOX at 4:30 pm EST this Saturday, January 14.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Classic ranks. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

NFC Wild Card Saturday Preview: Seahawks’ Offense

The Seahawks have a big task in front of them in the form of San Francisco’s top-ranked defense.

As divisional foes, Seattle has already faced the 49ers twice. Neither of those games came out in the Seahawks’ favor. Now the ‘Hawks have the unenviable task of going on the road in the playoffs to take on the league’s hottest team. Oh, yeah, that hot team also boasts the top defense in the NFL. Geno Smith (QB5 end-of-season) and the boys in blue (and white, and “action green”) have won their last two, though, after a stretch where Seattle lost five of six. Those two wins came against the Jets and the Rams, however. And the majority of their scoring came overwhelmingly off the right leg of Jason Myers (K3). Here’s a game that could get real ugly, real quick.

But there have been some very surprising positives to the Seahawks’ offense this season. Smith set the franchise record for passing yardage. Kenneth Walker led all rookies in rushing with 1,050 yards in just 15 games, and got healthy just when opening day starter Rashaad Penny was lost for the season. Tyler Lockett (WR13) and D.K. Metcalf (WR16) were their usual dynamic duo selves. Noah Fant (TE17) and the rest of the Seattle tight ends all showed good chemistry with Smith, combining for 10 touchdowns, tied for fifth-best in the league. This is a team that can score some points on the field and in fantasy boxscores.

Fantasy Playoff League Outlook

Unfortunately, the Seahawks don’t look to hang around long enough in playoff leagues to make them worth a high pick at any position. Smith checks in as a back-end quarterback as a likely one-and-done. Walker ranks as a high-to-mid-tier RB2, thanks to his potential for a double-digit output. Lockett and Metcalf are so explosive, but the likelihood of you reaping any benefits after this weekend are mighty slim. They’re just in the WR3 conversation for playoff leagues. And while Smith and the Seahawks suddenly love their tight ends, they spread it around too much to trust any of them as your tight end for just one game.

DFS Outlook

The Seahawks warrant much more consideration in DFS as an opportunity to pick up high-end scoring potential. The best bets are Lockett ($6,000 on DraftKings) and Metcalf ($6,200). San Francisco gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts; it’s literally their one area of relative weakness. Based on the afore-mentioned tight end usage, it’s a good bet Smith will be looking for them should the Seahawks find themselves in the redzone. Of that stable, Fant is the best bet to pop for a single game. I have him ranked ninth this week. At $3,100 he’s the cheapest of Saturday’s four starting tight ends, and offers touchdown opportunity while freeing up cash elsewhere. Walker is affordable at $5,900, but the 49ers surrendered the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. If you use him, you’re betting on a short touchdown and praying for five or more receptions.

NFC Wild Card Saturday Preview: 49ers’ Offense

National Tight End Day was a few months ago, but this could still be a fun weekend for the big boys.

As mentioned, San Francisco has won 10 straight games. In fact, their last loss was to the AFC’s top overall seed, the Kansas City Chiefs. And that loss was two-and-a-half months and two quarterbacks ago. The ‘Niners have rolled offensively and defensively over that stretch. After losing Jimmy Garoppolo (after losing Trey Lance), “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy found himself all kinds of relevant. The rookie has responded better than anyone could have guessed, or even hoped for. Purdy had thrown two touchdowns in every game as the primary or starting quarterback until messing that streak up in Week 18 by throwing for a third score late in the third quarter against the Cardinals’ hapless pass defense.

Now, the 49ers have added running back Elijah Mitchell to the backfield just in time for the dance. Mitchell came off the injured list in Week 18 and promptly scored two rushing touchdowns. Mitchell’s return means that Kyle Shanahan can get even more creative with Christian McCaffrey (RB2) and Deebo Samuel (WR36). It’s almost unfair that we haven’t even mentioned Brandon Aiyuk (WR15) or George Kittle (TE3) yet. And San Francisco comes into the game as the DST3, off a game where they harassed the Cardinals’ quarterbacks for three sacks and four total turnovers. Sheesh.

Fantasy Playoff League Outlook

The 49ers are the NFC’s number two seed, but they are far and away the hottest team in either conference. Coupled with the Philadelphia Eagles’ shaky play over the last month or so, San Francisco looks like a good bet to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If that happens, you’ll get four full games out of the 49ers on your playoff roster. Top-scoring options at their positions + more opportunities = a fantasy goldrush.

Purdy’s efficiency means he’ll score moderate points each game (he was a top-20 fantasy quarterback in Points Per Game). But getting more games out of him than anyone else means he’ll wind up a top scoring option at the position when all’s said and done. McCaffrey and Mitchell are both top-flight options at running back. Both have the ability to rank high in final scoring even if the 49ers don’t make it all the way to February. Kittle outdoes his season ranking, as he’s ranked as my TE2 in playoff drafts. Aiyuk and Samuel both warrant WR1 status. Kicker Robbie Gould and the San Francisco DST both rank as the top options at their positions by virtue of the four game assumption, although the DST could end up the top option even in the event of a loss in the Divisional or Conference Championship rounds.

DFS Outlook

You’ll have to decide how you want to construct your lineup, but if there were ever a time to splurge at tight end, this might be it. Kittle has seven touchdowns in his last four games, and the Seahawks gave up the most points to opposing fantasy tight ends this season. He’s going to cost more than you probably wanted to spend at tight end ($5,900), but could pay off big if his recent run of success continues. He’s my top-ranked tight end, and it’s not close.

McCaffrey ($8,500) is expensive as always, but could put up monster numbers in a great matchup. Seattle gave up the fourth-most points to running backs this year. That said, Mitchell may represent an opportunity for greater value at $4,700. We just saw him have a multi-score game. Freeing up almost four grand for elsewhere on the roster is awful tempting. In head-to-head matchups, I might actually prefer Mitchell’s cost savings. But in a GPP format, spending on McCaffrey could be a better play than you’d think at first, as the big name may scare some away.

Purdy is the cheapest of Saturday’s starting QB’s at $5,500. You could pair him with Kittle for nice return, and add Aiyuk ($5,800) or Samuel ($5,700) for a very affordable- but potentially lucrative- stack. Use the money you save to play the ‘Niners’ DST. They’re by far the best of Saturday’s four options. And, they’ll only cost you $500 more than the Chargers, who gave up 38 points to Jacksonville earlier this season.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: 49ers (-7)

Over/Under: 45

Notable Props: Christian McCaffrey receptions (4.1); Brock Purdy passing touchdowns (1.8); Geno Smith passing yards (219.7)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.