Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football

NFC Wild Card Sunday Late Game Preview

The NFL Playoffs are here, and the Wild Card round is half-done. If you’re not quite ready to leave the thrill of the fantasy chase behind (no pun intended), there are still daily contests to be played, as well as playoff fantasy leagues. I’ve released my playoff league rankings and will be updating my weekly rankings throughout the playoffs. We’ll also be previewing each individual game’s fantasy prospects. Up next, the NFC Wild Card Sunday late game between the Minnesota Vikings and the New York Giants. The game airs on FOX at 4:30 pm EST this Sunday, January 15.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Classic ranks. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

NFC Wild Card Sunday Late Game Preview: Giants’ Offense

Sa-Quad could offer nice returns for fantasy managers if the game remains close.

There were a lot of questions surrounding the Giants’ offense coming into the season. Daniel Jones‘s future looked uncertain at quarterback. The wide receiver room was incredibly “wide” on quantity, but thin on quality. Saquon Barkley‘s health is a seemingly never-ending concern. On top of that, the team needed to find a new starting tight end. And an offensive line that had ranked as one of the league’s worst in 2021 didn’t look to be much better.

As the postseason dawns, we actually have some answers. The offensive line is still a work in progress, but rookie Daniel Bellinger (TE34) looks to be at least a capable starter at tight end, if not a potential star. Barkley (RB5) played in every game but Week 18’s meaningless capper and returned to the star form of his first two NFL campaigns. The wide receiver room weathered losses due to injury and the trade of a presumed building block. While they’re still not the most talented position group in the league, the Giants’ wideouts are a surprisingly deep, workman-like group. Although, Kenny Golladay remains a mystery. Daniel Jones (QB10) still has an uncertain future in New York, but he finally proved he’s a starting quarterback in this league.

(Seriously. How the heck did Golladay average a score every six catches in 2019? And why did New York pay him like that was repeatable?)

Fantasy Playoff League Outlook

This game is a tough one to call. Minnesota squeaked out a win over the Giants with a 61-yard field goal as time expired in Week 16. The Vikings have a potent offense and a fairly impotent defense. Minnesota is less than a field goal favorite at home, making this game essentially a pick-em. Even if New York can grind out a victory in this round, they’ll face a steep test in the form of the top-seeded Eagles next week. I don’t see the Giants on your roster with much opportunity to score outside of this weekend. They’re ranked accordingly. Jones’s rushing ability gives him a high floor and makes him a mid-tier starter, even if he’s one-and-done. Same goes for Barkley, who’s a high-end RB2 for me thanks to his “go-off” potential in this one.

Besides that, there’s not much to get excited about. Bellinger is a good player, but an inconsistent fantasy option at best just yet. And neither heaven, nor Daniel Jones, nor your friendly basement bartender/fantasy expert knows which of Big Blue’s wide receivers will bring the fantasy love from week-to-week. They’re not reliable enough options to warrant anything more than a late desperation WR2 dart-throw. Leave Graham Gano (K7) and the Giants’ DST (DST18) for someone else’s headache.

DFS Outlook

If the Giants, as I suspect, are headed to the offseason after this one, it probably won’t be for lack of scoring. The Vikings have been a “get-right” defense both on the field and in fantasy matchups all season. They ended the year as a top-12 scoring matchup at every fantasy position except tight end, where they ranked 16th. Minnesota surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I love, love, LOVE me some Daniel Jones at $5,600 to throw at least a couple scores and maybe scamper for one. While he seemingly makes for a difficult stack, he’s so affordable in context given the matchup and your other options. He might set you apart simply because he has such a lack of stack options at first glance.

Barkley ($7,900) hasn’t been used in the pass game as much as fantasy managers would like. But under the radar, he was fifth in target share this season among running backs and sixth in total targets. He’s expensive, but could go off. He saw 10 targets against the Vikings in that Week 16 matchup. A repeat of that would actually make him very affordable as part of a Jones stack. Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100) and Richie James ($3,900) saw 12 and 11 targets, respectively, against Minnesota. Plug one of them in as a cheap WR3. There’s your stack. Now use the money you saved to rake in the stars elsewhere.

NFC Wild Card Sunday Late Game Preview: Vikings’ Offense

First downs are great, but Viking fans would rather see the Griddy.

A look at the Vikings’ record tells you they took control of the NFC North this season. A look at the fantasy rankings tells you they were a potent offense with stars or clear-cut fantasy starters at every position group. And a look at the pregame ceremonies at US Bank Stadium tells you that opponents are in for a rough day on the job.

But a look at the Vikings’ point differential tells you this team can be had. Despite a record of nine games over .500, the Vikings had a negative point differential. They were out-scored on the season. All but two of their wins were by a single score or less, the only exceptions a pair of 16-point victories against the receiver-less Packers in Week 1 and the quarterback-less Bears in Week 18. It took a franchise-record field goal to put the Giants away just a few weeks ago. This has all the signs of a team that could be vulnerable in the playoffs. And if they win, a trip to San Francisco is the prize.

Fantasy Playoff League Outlook

I think the Vikings do win this one, but the buck stops at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara against the 49ers. Even so, two games out of this offense should be enough for those players to put you in good position in playoff fantasy leagues. Justin Jefferson (WR1) and T.J. Hockenson (TE2) both retain high-end starter status in my rankings. Kirk Cousins (QB8) and Dalvin Cook (RB11) are both mid-tier starting options. Adam Thielen (WR29) and K.J. Osborn (WR43) are a toss-up as lower WR2 options. I wouldn’t lose sleep over Greg Joseph (K13) whether he’s on your roster or not. But you DO NOT want the Minnesota DST (DST26). I repeat. This is not a drill. You DO NOT want the Minnesota DST.

DFS Outlook

The Vikings make for some tasty DFS plays in this one. A Cousins/Jefferson/Hockenson stack would cost you $19,600, leaving you over $5,300 per position to fill the rest of your roster, even if you spend the maximum on DST. That allows for some nice options at running back or for another couple high-powered wideouts from other games. Otherwise, Dalvin Cook ($7,100) is a little high-priced at running back for a guy with fewer than 20 total fantasy points in the last three weeks. He’s got a decent matchup, but look elsewhere for value. Thielen ($4,500) and Osborn ($4,600) are a little risky, but affordable either as lineup fillers with upside or as additions to an all-in Vikings stack. And again, I say this to you: You DO NOT want the Minnesota DST. For any money.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Vikings (-0.5)

Over/Under: 51

Notable Props: Kirk Cousins passing yards (316); Dalvin Cook receptions (1.8); Graham Gano field goals made (1.2); Saquon Barkley rushing yards (73.9)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.