It’s that time, once again. Time to gather with loved ones, reflect on what we’re thankful for, and gorge ourselves on a veritable smorgasbord. I’m talking about the NFL’s first annual “John Madden Thanksgiving Celebration.” Week 12 kicks off with a three-course meal of football action, as the NFL serves up a trio of games guaranteed to make you salivate with the thought of the fantasy points to be scored. The Thanksgiving early game on CBS features the Buffalo Bills coming back “home” to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. It’s Buffalo’s second game in Detroit in a five-day span. They’ll be aiming for another victory, while fantasy managers will be hoping for plentiful points. Two high-powered offenses should get the fantasy feast started right and whet our appetites for more. Dig in.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Thanksgiving Early Game Preview: Bills’ Offense

Ho-hum. Same ol’ same ol’ for the Bills in Week 11. 30+ points in the box score. Position players dotting the fantasy leaderboards at every position. A home win in front of rabid Bills Mafia members.

Except it was anything but same ol’ same ol’, thanks to Mother Nature.

Highmark Stadium quite literally was the high-mark of snowfall last week, as an historic storm dumped almost seven feet of the white stuff on Orchard Park, where the Bills’ stadium is located. After a herculean effort both in Buffalo and at Ford Field, Buffalo hosted Cleveland in Detroit. Once the weirdness of the travel plans wore off, it was back to business as usual for Josh Allen and crew.

A rare pedestrian performance from Allen didn’t prevent several other Bills from serving up some useable- if not quite usual- fantasy totals. Devin Singletary was RB9 on the week. Stefon Diggs found the endzone. Both he and Gabriel Davis put up double-digit scores. Dawson Knox had perhaps his best game of the season and was TE5. And Tyler Bass found himself as K2, behind only a fairly legendary performance from the Cowboys’ Brett Maher.

Bills’ Offense Big Question

By now, you know. If you have Bills on your fantasy roster, you’re starting them. While that’s true most weeks, it’s especially true this week. The truest. The most truthfulness-filled. Facing Detroit is a fantasy supercharger for their opponents. In terms of fantasy points surrendered to opponents, here’s where the Lions rank at each position: QB-first; RB-tenth; WR-fifth; TE-fourth. That’s some action you’re going to want a piece of. Allen is my overall QB1 this week. Singletary is an RB2. Diggs is the overall WR1 on the season; you’d be starting him even if I didn’t have him ranked as WR1 for the week. Davis is a good WR2 and DFS play this week. Even Knox is a decent bet for a score. The Lions aren’t a great kicking matchup, but in a game where the Bills figure to score early and often, he should get his by default.

The biggest question, then, is one I addressed on The Captain Lou Extravaganza this week. Does Buffalo put up enough points early on that they essentially take themselves out of the game fantasy-wise? Allen is capable of giant numbers in a matchup such as this, but with his elbow issues and the short week, it wouldn’t make sense to leave him in any longer than necessary. The Bills are not a team that goes into clock-killing mode by hammering on the rush. Singletary has been much more fantasy-effective in games that were still reasonably competitive late. And if they’re not pressured to score in the second half, do we see more of Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, James Cook or *gasp*- Nyheim Hines? The fact that it’s a question makes those just-mentioned names intriguing in DFS or prop betting.

Thanksgiving Early Game Preview: Lions’ Offense

While the Lions have been (for the most part) a high-scoring offense with plenty to offer in fantasy, they don’t have quite the enticing matchup as do their opponents in the Thanksgiving early game. Where the Lions tend to surrender top-12 points to opponents at each position, the Bills give up bottom-12 points almost across the board. The Lions have scored over 30 points in six of ten games this season, including three of the last four. Conversely, against teams with good defenses, they put up six points total in two games sandwiched around their bye week. The Bills are a team with a good defense. Halloween’s over, but cue the ominous music…

After a hot start to the season, Jared Goff has come back down to earth. While he threw 11 touchdowns in the season’s first four weeks, he has just four in his past six games. He’s also failed to clear 200 passing yards in two of the past three games. He doesn’t run often or effectively. D’Andre Swift was drafted as RB9 overall. Jamaal Williams went 40 backs later. Williams enters the Thanksgiving early game as RB13 and leads the league in touchdowns. Swift has missed three games entirely, parts of others, and is RB33 overall. Outside of Weeks 1-2, he’s barely been fantasy viable. Amon-Ra St. Brown and the receiving corps have been decimated by injury. And we haven’t even talked about the T.J. Hockenson trade.

Lions’ Offense Big Question

Where, then, are we going to find fantasy value here? Well, it probably won’t be from Goff, at least not o the tune of being fantasy start-worthy. He’s fine as a QB2 in Superflex or two quarterback leagues, as I have him at QB24 this week. The Lions look to be utilizing Williams as their early down back (he’s seen just 12 passing targets on the year), so if they find themselves in favorable script or goal line situations, he’s got a shot. Temper expectations. I have him at RB21, but multiple touchdown upside is always there. Swift may benefit if the Lions have to throw, but I still have him at just RB26 because of the usage pattern. Brock Wright and James Mitchell are best left on the wire. There’s simply not enough volume given to either of them.

The one area where the Bills do give up points is at wide receiver. It’s almost counter-intuitive when you look at the whole picture. Buffalo’s defense ranks first in the league in interceptions and second in passes defended. They give up the tenth-fewest yards in the league. But they allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. That makes for an interesting matchup for St. Brown. He’s proving every week that last season’s breakout was legitimate. I have him inside the top-10 at WR9 this week. Unfortunately, the rest of the Lions’ wideouts are about as banged-up as they come. D.J. Chark is one week removed from a return from IR, but saw just one target last week and is still limited in practice. Josh Reynolds is no lock to play. Quintez Cephus is still on IR, and Jameson Williams isn’t ready yet.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Bills (-12)

Over/Under: 51

Notable Props: First Field Goal: Bills (52%); First Sack: Detroit (72%); Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards (80.4); Stefon Diggs receiving yards (99.1); Von Miller total tackles (2.8)

Challenge Chase!

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