The San Francisco 49ers are set to face off against the New York Giants in tonight’s TNF matchup. The 49ers enter as 10.5-point favorites with an over/under at 45.5.

With the absence of star running back Saquon Barkley for the Giants, it may be difficult for them to put up points. On the other hand, the 49ers are expected to dominate offensively. The over/under line does not present much value here.

However, despite the large spread, the 49ers are 12-6-1 ATS since last year. Double digit spreads have not been a problem for them to cover either. It’s their first home game of the year which likely will warrant some extra juice in front of the home crowds. I am taking the 49ers to cover in this one.

Let’s look closely at some key players and prop bets for this game.

Quarterbacks: Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones

1. Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy, ranked 13th in my rankings, is expected to perform well against the Giants’ defense. Last week, he narrowly missed throwing for two touchdowns and should have a strong showing this week. It was the first time since Purdy has taken over as the starter that he has not thrown for at least 2 passing touchdowns in the regular season. Tonight he has a prop of 1.5. Smash the over.

2. Daniel Jones

Conversely, Daniel Jones, ranked as my QB18, faces a tough task without Saquon Barkley against an elite defense. It would be advisable to bench Jones in fantasy leagues. Additionally, when Jones struggles it usually means he wasn’t able to utilize his rushing ability. Consider betting under 40.5 rushing yards for Jones.

Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey and Matt Breida

1. Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey, ranked 1st in my rankings, is a must-start and should easily exceed the 79.5 rushing yards prop.

2. Matt Breida 

Matt Breida, the likely replacement for Barkley, may face a tough challenge. Despite Kyren Williams‘s success scoring last week, he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Breida could find himself in a bit of a committee to boot with Gary Brightwell, and perhaps rookie Eric Gray. Breida should only be considered as a needy spot start or low-end flex play.

Wide Receivers: Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk

1. Deebo Samuel 

Deebo Samuel, ranked as my WR14, has been performing well, surpassing the receiving yards mark in the last two games. Take the over 54.5 receiving yards prop ahead of tonight.

2. Brandon Aiyuk

If Brandon Aiyuk is inactive, Samuel becomes an even stronger option for hitting the over. Aiyuk, ranked as my WR17, is nursing a shoulder injury but is expected to be a game-time decision in a favorable matchup. Keep an eye on his injury status.

Giants WRs are irrelevant to fantasy and betting.

Tight Ends: Darren Waller and George Kittle

1. Darren Waller

Darren Waller, ranked as my TE4, faces a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that was in the top 6 against tight ends last season. However, he is the only playmaker the Giants have for Jones to go to tonight. Temper expectations but obviously he is in your lineup.

2. George Kittle

On the other hand, George Kittle, ranked as my TE8, still possesses tremendous talent and is a top 10 TE starter as a result. However, if you have a player with a better floor, it may be worth considering starting them over Kittle. Whose stat line through two weeks is a mere 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 49 receiving yards. Kittle has been asked to essentially be an extra offensive lineman in the absence of the Mike McGlinchy departure last season. Keep an eye on Aiyuk’s status, as it could impact Kittle’s receiving yards prop bet.

For more content from Dan Mader, host of the MD’s Fantasy Football Show, visit the youtube channel, or get the edge by viewing his industry-accurate rankings here.