Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Players to Sell High at Every Position: Dynasty

There is no offseason in Dynasty and now is the time to decide whether you’re a contender or a pretender. And if the survey says pretender, it’s time to begin work on a rebuild. While you’re staring at that less than ideal roster, check and see if any of these names happen to be on it. If they are it might be the perfect time to sell these players high and send them off to new happier homes, nabbing yourself some nice draft capital at the same time. 

QBs to Sell

BellyUp Jalen Hurts 2022 Fantasy graphic

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 PPR points per game: 20.8, Positional Rank: 9th

Even with the addition of AJ Brown to the Eagles, I still don’t trust Hurts to replicate what he did last year. Hurts has never been truly productive as a passer and has averaged just 140 yards passing per game. That’s a mark that places him below Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields. Passing stats aren’t the end all be all of a QB in fantasy, however when teams know you can’t throw they stop being afraid of it. Hurts’ limitations as a passer handicap the Eagles from being a much scarier team and could lead to him being replaced shortly. Hurts is a perfect player to sell high this offseason, don’t fall into the trap of an improved WR core here. 

Expected Return: At least 1 first-round pick, be greedy here as many managers are big-time Hurts believers and will overpay for him. 

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 2021 PPR points per game: 20.8, Positional Rank: 6th

Call this one obvious if you want but championship fever is a thing. Many fantasy managers will overvalue Stafford’s year 1 production in Sean McVay’s system and pay a lot for him. On paper, he’s a great fit for a team in win-now mode and looks like an easy QB1. The reality with Stafford is a bit more complex, he struggled mightily at times in 2021 and found his rhythm just in time for the playoffs. Stafford threw eight picks in the last four regular-season games of 2021 alone. Call it a slump if you want but a 34-year-old quarterback with that kind of variance has no place in your rebuild. If you’re not ready to compete now then Stafford is an easy sell. 

Expected Return: Target 2-3 second-round picks here. Your ideal trade partner is a team one QB away from being champs. Sell them on the potential short-term gain. 

RBs to Sell

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: 2021 PPR points per game: 18.1, Positional Ranking: 6th

This has a lot less to do with his off-the-field legal issues than you’d think, they aren’t helping though. Kamara struggled to stay on the field last year and was significantly less productive than we were used to seeing. He dropped from over 50 yards receiving per game in 2020 to just 33.7 in 2021. His average yards per carry took a steep drop as well from 5.0 in 2020 to a career-low 3.7 in 2021. Kamara was hampered by the retirement of Drew Brees, something the Saints failed to address again, and Terron Armstead’s departure will hurt as well. Banking on Kamara generating a high level of production is riskier this year, making him a sell. 

Expected Return: First-round pick at the very least. Kamara is a multi-time pro bowler and you shouldn’t move him for peanuts.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers: 2021 PPR points per game: 18.2, Positional Ranking: 5th

Another back who has routinely struggled to stay on the field. Much like Kamara, McCaffrey has dealt with poor QB play lately. If CMC could be counted on to stay healthy he would be a great hold but he simply cannot. There’s too much overall risk around him for anyone interested in a rebuild to not cash in on his current value. It’s the highest it will ever be, especially if we see another injury. 

Expected Return: Two first-round picks. Like Stafford and Kamara we’re targeting a team in win-now mode and taking advantage of them. 

WRs to Sell

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: 2021 PPR points per game: 10.5, Positional Ranking: 11th

Lockett has been a quiet but very effective fantasy receiver for his entire career. However, he enters uncharted territory in turning 30 this season and playing without Russell Wilson. Seattle is stocked full of young receivers like Dee Eskridge, Freddie Swain, and Bo Melton that will all be looking for opportunities as well. Now is the perfect time to dump Lockett for some picks for younger players to help your rebuild. 

Expected Return: 1st round pick or younger WR in a slightly lower tier like Amon-Ra St Brown or Christian Kirk

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans: 2021 PPR points per game: 8.9, Positional Ranking: T-20th

Cooks was effective last year for the Texans but he doesn’t fit into their long-term plans. The Texans have a plethora of young players at receiver, John Metchie III, Nico Collins, and Brevin Jordan will see a large number of targets. Cooks seems like the most likely guy to end up as the odd man out here. The risk of his production being hurt by a Year 2 backslide from Davis Mills exists as well, making Cooks better off with someone closer to winning now. 

Expected Return: 1-2 2nd round picks

TEs to Sell

CJ Uzomah, New York Jets: 2021 PPR points per game: 5, Positional Ranking: 20th

Uzomah’s value will never be higher than it is right now. Coming off a very nice season with Joe Burrow and being a key part of the Bengals’ Super Bowl appearance. He signed a nice contract with the Jets and his supporters point to a potential jump in volume this season. I say that potential jump isn’t worth trusting, Uzomah has always been a below-average tight end. He will likely regress to his regular production or even worse due to the downgrade in quarterback play. Move off Uzomah now while the market for him is hot. 

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 PPR points per game: 7, Positional Ranking: 8th

Probably the most controversial pick on this list but Waller could be in for a decline in 2022. His last season was limited due to injury, a growing theme in his career, and his volume dipped too. Waller averaged an elite 6.7 receptions per game in 2020 but that dipped to just 5 receptions per game in 2021. Now factor in his recovery from injury and the addition of Davante Adams as competition for targets. The continued growth of Hunter Renfrow will also hurt Waller’s target share. With Waller set to turn 30 before the midpoint of this season, now is the time to move on for a nice haul. 

Expected Return: Two first-round picks, or one first and a high-value RB or WR such as; Javonte Williams, AJ Dillon, Diontae Johnson, or DJ Moore

Follow @Research_Passer  on Twitter to get more Fantasy content and send in questions about your lineup! Make sure to check out Belly Up Fantasy for all your fantasy needs!