The Jaguars are back at it again. Apparently determined to jettison off every single member of the 2017 team that made the AFC Championship, Jacksonville is reportedly looking to deal running back Leonard Fournette leading up to the draft. Where Fournette suits up next year will obviously have a huge impact on his fantasy value. Fournette’s improvement last year as a pass-catcher (76 receptions, 522 yards) means he isn’t quite as limited by scheme as we once thought. But factors like offensive line play and the weapons surrounding him will play a big part in determining his production. We’re going to discuss his possible landing spots in a moment, but first, I have to ask a question.

Just What the Hell is Going on in Jacksonville?

The rebuild in northeast Florida is in full swing, with coach Doug Marrone and general manager David Caldwell– keeping their jobs? Seriously? Crotchety old Tom Coughlin is out as Executive Vice President of Pissing Off His Players, at least.

The promising group of young players that had so much success two years ago is mostly gone. Jalen Ramsey couldn’t wait to get out. Telvin Smith took a year off. The Jags are trying to move Yannick Ngakoue. The team was discussing playing half of their home games in London. They signed Nick Foles to a monster contract, only to ship him to Chicago a year later. They’ve decided to let Cam Newton and Jameis Winston collect that extra $600 unemployment check and roll with a full-time Uncle Rico cosplayer at quarterback.

With that in mind, let’s celebrate with Leonard Fournette for getting out of that dumpster fire, and look at where he might end up. Since Sern already covered the Dolphins, I picked three other teams that have been suggested, and ranked them from where I least want to see him play to where I’d most like to see him play fantasy-wise.

Worst of the Possible Landing Spots: Kansas City Chiefs

While the talk of Fournette to the Chiefs at this point seems more along the lines of “wouldn’t that be nuts,” it is still worth mentioning. Adding a weapon like Fournette to the Super Bowl champions sounds like a cheat code, but how well would he actually fit in Kansas City?

Last year, the Chiefs ran 76 percent of their total plays out of shotgun, and 26 percent of their running plays came from the formation, too. This helped keep defenses off balance as they knew by averages that one of every four shotgun plays would be a run, but not which.

While Fournette improved some last season both as a receiver and a runner in shotgun formation, he is still, by a large margin, most effective when running from under center; which is why only 13 percent of the Jaguars’ running plays came out of shotgun last year. When Fournette has a chance to make moves behind the line of scrimmage, he has shown a tendency to dance. He is at his best when he can just run downhill into a hole.

How Often Does Fournette Touch the Ball in KC?

Beyond that, Fournette demands touches to maximize his production. Whether it is related to the reported work ethic issues in Jacksonville or simply how his motor is wired, Fournette was a much different runner last year when getting more than 15 carries in a game. In nine games last year, Fournette split 15 or less of 121 carries, gaining 443 yards for an average of 3.7 yards per carry. In the five games where he got 16 or more carries, Fournette ran the ball 144 times for 709 yards or almost 5 YPC.

I just don’t see Andy Reid holding back Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and the rest of the Chiefs passing attack enough to keep Fournette productive. Fun thought, bad fit. Next.

The Fit for Fournette in Indianapolis

A lot of those same issues exist in Indianapolis. With Jacoby Brissett at QB last year, the Colts also played out of shotgun the majority of their snaps, and actually ran more often out of it than the Chiefs did. So, why is this a better fit? Brissett isn’t the quarterback anymore.

Philip Rivers can run an offense under center. In 2018, the Chargers had one of the highest under center run rates in the league, and one of the lowest total shotgun snap rates. Frank Reich can make the adjustments needed to maximize his player’s strengths. Fournette would instantly take a lot of pressure off of Rivers and open up the offense a bit.

My Favorite of the Possible Landing Spots: Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers have a glaring need at running back and getting a proven commodity for Tom Brady, like Fournette, would do a lot to ease the anxiety of the short window they have to compete for a title. Seeing what coach Bruce Arians can come up with to maximize having Brady, Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard would be a treat.

The Bucs would have to hold on to pick 14 in this years’ draft to improve the offensive line, so a deal might be tricky. You clean the cupboard for a move like this, though, as you have already consigned yourself to a two-year window maximum with the Brady signing. There would be a lot of mouths to feed here, just like Kansas City, but Brady is not the electric playmaker Mahomes is. Pounding the ball from under center and working off play-action would set Tampa Bay up well for their run at the Super Bowl.

The reality is, that is why I want Fournette in Tampa Bay out of all the possible landing spots. After the year we have had so far, let them get Fournette on the cheap. Send D’Andre Swift to Kansas City on Thursday like Craig Talley did in our mock draft. Whenever and however this season is played, let the rest of the league take a backseat, and let us watch the Chiefs and the Bucs race to 50 in the Super Bowl. I think we’ve earned it.

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