Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football

QB Rankings to win your draft

With my projection series finished up, and with all the news that has happened since I began, I thought it would be helpful to list my projections for all the players in an easy to find and read format. With the last of the drafts happening as we speak, feel free to use this to help you win your league. Without further ado, let us begin with QB Rankings. All projections up to date as of 9/06/2020.

The Quarterbacks

Name: Att/Comp-Pass Yds-TD:INT, (Rushes-Rush Yds-Rush TD:Fumbles) 0.5 PPR Fantasy Points

Tier 1: Me and Mah homies

Nobody throws the ball like Mahomes. Nobody likes ketchup like him either. I hate ketchup… not enough to rank anyone over Mahomes though.
  1. Patrick Mahomes: 387/581-5,096-44:10, (48-212-1:8) 389.04
    Mahomes will be on another level in 2020. Draft him accordingly. I don’t think you needed QB rankings to tell you that.

Tier 2: These guys can all run

Watson will be better than ever in 2020. Mark my words. Heed them if you wanna win a ship.
  1. Deshaun Watson: 354/519-4,203-29:9, (76-402-6:6) 345.32
  2. Russell Wilson: 350/522-4,313-32:6, (71-369-3:7) 342.42
  3. Dak Prescott: 374/568-4,540-30:10, (53-275-5:7) 342.1
  4. Lamar Jackson: 260/425-3,094-30:8, (130-775-6:9) 340.26
  5. Josh Allen: 310/490-3,602-26:8, (96-540-8:6) 336.08
    Because Mahomes goes crazy early a lot, and because I prefer going RB early, I usually wind up with one of these guys later on. Usually not Lamar, as he has been overhyped and I expect significant regression. But as you can see, less than 10 points separate these five. And frankly, I am the most scared about Lamar. Between injury risk and defenses figuring him out, I would rather let someone else take a shot on him. That being said, his ceiling is ridiculous. I suspect his placement will be the most controversial aspect of these QB rankings.

Tier 3: Safe floors, exciting upsides

Kyler can run, he can throw, but my quarterback projections like him at tier 3.
  1. Kyler Murray: 360/556-3,997-24:11, (81-475-3:6) 304.38
  2. Aaron Rodgers: 362/564-4,303-28:5, (38-153-2:4) 302.42
  3. Daniel Jones: 373-576-4,089-29:10, (49-296-2:9) 302.16
  4. Drew Brees: 394/531-4,442-31:6, (14-19-1:3) 300.58
  5. Carson Wentz: 354/553-4,114-28:7, (61-252-2:10) 296.76
  6. Tom Brady: 368/592-4,479-30:9, (22-31-1:7) 292.26
  7. Matthew Stafford: 378/579-4,625-28:11, (26-79-0:7) 286.9
  8. Matt Ryan: 386/583-4,527-27:9, (31-104-1:10) 286.48
    All these guys are safe and possess excellent upside. While I view them slightly outside the tier 2 guys, each and every one of them could end up there. Having them as your QB1 is no issue, and having one as your Superflex or qb2 is a beautiful luxury. Watch out for Daniel Jones in 2020, I have massive exposure to him and you should too. Especially when you consider his low ADP. Rodgers, Stafford, Wentz, Brady, Brees and Ryan are all some of the usual suspects at high-end QB production, but Kyler is new to this crowd, and will theoretically be leaving soon to enter the tier 2 ranks by 2021.

Tier 4: QB2’s with lower floors but high upside

2019 was breakout for Tanny. WIll he regress, or will last year be the new norm? I think his situation is smooth like Tennessee Whiskey.
  1. Ryan Tannehill: 330/489-3,939-26:7, (42-185-2:6) 279.06
  2. Ben Roethlisberger: 375/575-4,409-28:13, (22-61-0:6) 275.46
  3. Gardner Minshew: 336/524-3,784-26:7, (61-311-1:10) 275.46
  4. Baker Mayfield: 337/515-4,023-28:14, (26-107-1:2) 273.62
  5. Philip Rivers: 360/540-4,201-29:12, (7-11-0:3) 270.14
  6. Joe Burrow: 338/507-3,950-24:16, (70-215-2:2) 269.5
  7. Kirk Cousins: 362/525-4,279-25:8, (35-96-1:9) 268.76
  8. Jared Goff: 368/584-4,349-26:13, (36-46-1:11) 264.56
  9. Cam Newton: 293/470-3,260-21:14, (80-320-6:7) 261.4
  10. Mitchell Trubisky: 327/501-3,607-24:11, (46-251-2:6) 260.38 14 games
    There is a real argument that any of these guys winds up as a top 10 QB. Yes, even Trubisky, who finished 2018 with the 11th highest average fantasy points per game. Roethlisberger had back to back top 10 fantasy seasons in 2017 and 2018 before that 2019 debacle. Rivers has proven himself capable in fantasy and that line makes me wanna snap my fingers and do a step. Baker and Minshew both showed promise in their rookie campaigns, and their ceilings definitely excite. As a rookie, Burrow has so many unknowns, but he won’t lack for weapons. Cousins and Goff lost key weapons but have top 10 seasons in their resume already. Cam is the real curiosity. His rushing capabilities could make him a steal. But it is crazy risky. I like all these guys as QB2s.

Tier 5: Use them at your own risk

Carr leads this lackluster group. Not the first time he has done that in his career.
  1. Derek Carr: 339/487-3,776-24:8, (22-79-1:7) 245.94
  2. Drew Lock: 317/494-3,548-25:11, (39-160-1:9) 243.92
  3. Jimmy Garoppolo: 337/488-3,994-23:12, (41-58-0:10) 235.56
  4. Sam Darnold: 310-/495-3,620-24:14, (30-61-1:7) 231.9
  5. Teddy Bridgewater: 341/517-3,621-19:8, (38-118-1:7) 223.64
  6. Dwayne Haskins: 286/467-3,299-21:15, (39-172-1:9) 215.16
    These guys are scary. But not in a good way. Don’t get me wrong, each possesses enough upside to be roster worthy. Let’s start from the top. Carr could explode, or be benched for Mariota. How many Coronas, spiders, and bananas has Gruden had today? Lock may have the highest ceiling because of the weapons at his disposal, but we know less about Lock than we do about the Key to that offense. Garoppolo is less than inspiring in that offense. Darnold plays for Gase, enough said. The last time Bridgewater played 16 games, he threw for 14 TDs. Riveting! Abbreviate Washington Football Team… WFT. Abbreviate What the “you know”. WTF. See any similarities? Me too. I will roster these guys, in superflex, as my third QB, for potential trade bait only. Relying on any of them is not recommended. Doctor’s orders are get healthier at QB.

Tier 6: What are you thinking?

If you made it this far into the article, congratulations. If you are relying on any of these guys on a weekly basis, I want you in my leagues.
  1. Justin Herbert: 201/303-2,468-16:9, (48-183-2:6) 178.02 10 games
  2. Tua Tagovailoa: 144/230-2,009-14:10, (14-74-0:3) 130.76 10 games
  3. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 135/210-1,506-12:6, (21-93-1:1) 116.54 6 games
  4. Tyrod Taylor: 105/167-1,264-7:2, (41-223-1:1) 103.86 6 games
  5. Nick Foles: 44/67-422-3:1, (5-17-0:1) 28.58 2 games
  6. Robert Griffin: 28/45-330-1:1, (16-61-0:1) 21.3
  7. Taysom Hill: 1/3-11-0:0, (34-191-2:1)(26 targ, 19 catch, 211 Yds, 3 TD) 79.14
  8. Marcus Mariota: 32/52-390-2:0, (25-148-2:1)(5 targ, 3 catch, 29 Yds )53.8
  9. Jalen Hurts: 19/31-278-1:0, (22-128-2:1)(2 targ, 1 catch, 11 Yds) 40.52
  10. Kyle Allen: 32/51-376-2:1, (7-23-0:1) 23.34
  11. Jameis Winston: 28/44-359-2:1, (6-21-0:1) 22.46
  12. Andy Dalton: NA
  13. Jarrett Stidham: NA
  14. Case Keenum: NA
  15. Jacoby Brissett: NA
  16. Jordan Love: NA
  17. Brian Hoyer: NA
  18. Jacob Eason: NA
  19. Joe Flacco: NA
  20. John Wolford: NA
    NO. I understand drafting some of these guys for upside, but only as a fliers and handcuffs. Herbert/Taylor hurt each other, Fitzmagic/Tua hurt each other, and the others are… well… not great. Injuries or poor play are necessary for any of them to sniff the field. They won’t be sniffing my lineup in 2020.

There you have it folks, my QB rankings all lined up nice and pretty for you to admire and enjoy. If you don’t like these quarterback rankings, I hear Nickelback rankings are making a comeback. Just look at those photographs, every time I do it makes me laugh. And this is how you remind me of what I really am. I can be your hero baby. Ok, enough Nickelback references for one article.

Thanks for reading. Like what you see? Hate me as a person because of these QB rankings? Let me know. I love the feedback. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy sports needs. Be sure to check out our consensus rankings to see where everyone at Belly Up Fantasy has these guys.