I am gearing this series of articles towards those who may be drafting in a start-up dynasty league this year. You may be asking yourself, which QB do I build around and where can I find the most value in those franchise building blocks? I go after the young quarterbacks who are already showcasing their elite talent, or the young quarterbacks who have very promising potential. I did say “young” but do not chase age over talent, and do not shy away from the quarterbacks nearing 30. This is a position where these guys can play for a long time and put up big-time production in their longevity.

I will provide a few QB names to keep an eye on come draft time that aren’t being drafted in the first few rounds. Not going to spew out the absolute obvious names such as Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson. I will walk you through some names taken after the 5th round in your start-up drafts. There is value out there people, please do not panic. The round numbers next to each quarterback’s name are projected ADP based on mock drafts I have completed and researched. All leagues have different types of managers who may reach more than others, so try and “know” your opponents as best as you can.

Joe Burrow– Round 7

2020 – QB25, 10 GP, 178.72 Fantasy points, 17.87 avg (Rookie)

Joe’s rookie season came to an early halt after suffering a season-ending ACL injury. This is someone who many claimed to be over-hyped after seeing the success of fellow first-round draft pick, Justin Herbert. My main concerns are the ACL and the lack of protection he is receiving.

Jonah Williams is the only offensive lineman in Cincinnati with a PFF grade of 70.0 or higher, which was 75.8 to be exact. This was the third-worst offensive line in all of football in 2020. Will it get better? I am going to say yes. The Bengals went out and signed Reilly Reiff in free agency which solidifies their tackle position. I would have loved to see them take Sewell or Slater in the draft, but now they can go offense and take guards later. The question ends up being Pitts or Chase, and I believe that Burrow wants his former teammate to join him in Cincinnati.

If Joe Mixon can stay healthy, that leaves Burrow with Mixon, Boyd, Higgins, and the possibility of Pitts or Chase as weapons for him. Joe finished his shortened rookie season with a 65.3 CMP% (22), 2,688 YDS (23), 13 TD (26) to 5 INT, and 89.8 rating (24) with a QB rating of 56.2 (24) all in 10 GP. This will improve now that the rust has shaken off. Burrow is going in rounds 6-8 in most start-up dynasty mocks so far, and I think that his future production will be more around 3-5 round value. That’s a win to me. As his weapons progress, Joe will progress, and the Bengals will continue to build around their face of the franchise. Take him confidently in rounds 6-8 and reap the benefits for many years.

Justin Herbert – Round 7

2020 – QB9, 15 GP, 342.84 fantasy points, 22.86 avg (Rookie)

This is an easy one right? Yep, totally. Justin Herbert was overlooked by a landslide in my opinion in the 2020 NFL draft. The Chargers got a steal and you can too in your upcoming dynasty draft. Justin Herbert finished the season as the Pepsi Rookie of the Year and the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The stats that got him there: 66 CMP% (15th), 4,336 YDS (6th), 289.1 YDS/G (4th), 31 TD (10th), 98.3 RTG (12th) with an adjusted rating of 69.5 (13th). He did all of this with the worst offensive line in the entire NFL. Well, guess what? The Chargers went out and got Corey Linsley; an all-pro center with the highest PFF grade at his position (86.4). Bryan Bulaga suffered some injuries last season in a very down year so I would expect a bounce-back.

The Chargers can bolster their offensive line in the first round with the selection of Rashawn Slater or Alijah Vera-Tucker. Can you imagine if Justin Herbert had more time in the pocket and actual NFL caliber protection? It’s a scary thought for opposing teams but a wonderful dream for his fantasy managers. A healthy Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and newly acquired Jared Cook, make for one dangerous offense. He may have the most upside of any young quarterback not named Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.

Ryan Tannehill-Round 12

2020 – QB7, 16 GP, 350.36 fantasy points, 21.9 avg

2019 – QB21, 12 GP, 230.18 fantasy points, 19.18 avg

2018 – QB30, 11 GP, 141.96 fantasy points, 12.91 avg

Tannehill is a guy I love to wait for. Yes, he is 32 years old, but as I stated before, please do not shy away from a quarterback in his 30’s when you’re drafting your dynasty team for year one. Tannehill is sneaky good and undervalued in fantasy football.

Tannehill broke out in 2019 when he was given a shot by the Titans. In the 12 games he played, he finished with a 70 CMP%, 2,742 YDS, 22 TD to only 6 INT, a rating of 117.5, and an adjusted QB rating of 64.2. Tannehill signed his big deal and came out this past season with the following statistics in 16 GP: 65.5 CMP% (21), 3,819 YDS (15), 33 TD (7) to only 7 INT, 7 RUSH TD (19), 106.6 rating (5), and an adjusted QB rating of 78.3 (4). I would expect these numbers to stay around the same over the next few seasons with the possibility of more TDs and more yards with a healthy AJ Brown out there.

The Titans offensive line ranked 15th in the NFL. They definitely were hurting without all-pro Jack Conklin but a healthy Taylor Lewan will beef things up. Roger Saffold III and Ben Jones are still in the mix as well. The loss of Corey Davis does sting, but the Titans could better the WR position in the NFL Draft. Wait for Tannehill, work on drafting your skill positions early on, and then take another QB later in your draft to pair Tannehill with upside (Lock, Fields, Z. Wilson, Mariota, Newton, Winston, etc.).

Carson Wentz – Round 12

2020 – QB22, 12GP, 213.4 fantasy points, 17.78 avg

2019 – QB9, 16 GP, 282.86 fantasy points, 17.68 avg

2018 – QB23, 11 GP, 192.66 fantasy points, 17.51 avg

Yes, Carson Wentz. I totally just went out there and screamed from the rooftops. Carson Wentz is a good quarterback who was ultimately stuck in a really bad situation with a really bad coaching staff and zero weapons to help him out last season. I get it, Wentz made some horrible throws and some really stupid decisions, but look what he had to work with. Look how the organization bailed on him and made him the enemy. Well, guess what? Carson gets to play behind a top 10 offensive line. A down year for the Colts line meant a number seven finish according to PFF. They’ll be back in the top three with a healthy group back in the mix. He’s going to have the time and regain the confidence to get back to his 2018 form.

Will he be in the running for the MVP award? Probably not. Maybe 2018 is an optimistic dream, but the top 10-15 at the QB position is a steal that late in your draft. Remember, he’s only 28 years of age. I’m going to ignore last season, but 2019 wasn’t all the bad. He finished with a 63.9 CMP% (17), 4,039 YDS (9), 27 TD’s (5) to 7 INT, and 93.1 rating (19) with a QB rating of 62.8 (11). This is the kind of floor we can expect from Wentz in Indianapolis.

I believe the success of the Colts’ run game will make everything a whole lot easier for Wentz as well. Philadelphia never seemed to get the whole importance of a run game during the Carson Wentz era. I’m on board and looking to draft Carson in my startup dynasty drafts or I am sending out some offers to acquire him via trade.

Matthew Stafford– Round 15

2020– QB15, 16 GP, 270.56 fantasy points, 16.91 avg

2019– QB29, 8 GP, 171.56 fantasy points, 21.45 avg

2018– QB20, 16 GP, 212.18 fantasy points, 13.26 avg

Matthew Stafford finds himself on a team with actual talent on offense. The offensive line was ranked third overall according to PFF. Matthew Stafford behind an elite offensive line with weapons all around him can only mean one thing for us fantasy guys and gals; a steal on draft day. There are always going to be injury concerns with Stafford, but maybe with great protection, we won’t have to worry as much? I’m being hopeful. Stafford will have a run game behind him, plus two great receivers to throw to in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. We can even include DeSean Jackson in that core if he can stay healthy at all as well as Tyler Higbee at the tight end position.

Last year was a down season for Stafford compared to his 2019 numbers. He was a QB15 with 4,084 YDS(12), a 64 CMP% (28), 26 TD (12) to 10 INT, a rating of 96.3 (14), and a QB rating of 68.4 (15). If we look back to 2019, he was in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks through the first nine weeks of the season before he got hurt; the QB6 to be exact. If he can put up similar numbers to that season where he averaged 21.45 fantasy points per game through 8 GP, he will be a top 10 QB easily with his new weapons for a few more years. He is 33 years of age, but do not let that stop you from drafting him and taking a younger QB with the potential to back him up for the next few seasons.

Derek Carr– Round 17

2020– QB13, 16 GP, 281.12 fantasy points, 17.57 avg

2019– QB17, 16 GP, 252.36 fantasy points, 15.77 avg

2018– QB19, 16 GP, 215.76 fantasy points, 13.49 avg

This is a pick that I fought myself about. I have so much faith in Derek Carr, yet he comes up short most seasons. Last year, he finally “broke out” for me with a QB13 performance. This past season, Carr finished with a 67.3 CMP% (10), 4,103 YDS (11), 27 TD (11) to only 7 INT, 101.4 rating (10), and a QB rating of 71.0 (11). These are some pretty impressive stats for a QB that has no true WR1 and a depleted offensive line that unfortunately isn’t getting any better this year after some key losses. Richie Incognito and Kolton Miller will man the fort, but the Raiders need some more protection for Carr.

The Raiders did go out and sign John Brown who can maybe connect with Carr’s unbelievable deep throw accuracy (Yes, number two overall in deep throw accuracy last season behind only Aaron Rodgers). Henry Ruggs is improving and his speed is as dangerous as anyone. Watch for the consistent deep passes his way. Darren Waller, AKA The Walrus, is Carr’s safety blanket and top receiver playing at the tight end position. I like the thought of taking them both on draft day. This QB/TE stack could pay dividends.

I’m taking Carr over a lot of QBs out there and we can wait until very late in a dynasty draft due to his age (30) and the fact that he has less name value than others. 30 is not old for a QB. Please take advantage of those who shy away from Carr and take him with the confidence of knowing he will give you so much value in return. More top 15 seasons are going to happen with the upside of the top 10. It wasn’t long ago that Derek Carr was in MVP talks; 3rd in voting in 2016.

Sam Darnold– Undrafted

2020– QB30, 12 GP, 145.02 fantasy points, 12.09 avg

2019– QB27, 13 GP, 202.16 fantasy points, 15.55 avg

Sam Darnold is my final value pick. He’s someone I’m willing to take a flier on at the end of my dynasty draft because of his age, potential, and most of all, the fact that he has left the prison of Adam Gase’s offense. Adam Gase was the worst possible situation for Darnold. Darnold enters Carolina with some unbelievable talent around him for the first time in his career and I’m sure he’s ecstatic. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are two guys who will help Darnold into a top 20 season this year and going forward. Who wouldn’t want to have Christian McCaffrey to dump the ball off to whenever you want while knowing he’s going to get you positive yards each time? No one. No one is the only answer.

The Panthers’ offensive line ranked 18th in the NFL according to PFF grades. With the addition of Pat Elflein and Cam Irving, I see that rank improving. Plus, I believe the Panthers will improve their offensive line in the first round of the draft this month. Darnold dealt with an offensive line ranked 29th last season and it showed. I’m not saying Darnold is going to be a superstar, but for a guy who is currently going undrafted in mocks, the return on value could be huge if he can live up to his potential.

David’s Top 25 QB’s for the next 5 years

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Kyler Murray

4. Justin Herbert

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Deshaun Watson

7. Dak Prescott

8. Joe Burrow

9. Russell Wilson

10. Aaron Rodgers

11. Ryan Tannehill

12. Baker Mayfield

13. Carson Wentz

14. Derek Carr

15. Matthew Stafford

16. Trevor Lawrence

17. Daniel Jones

18. Tua Tagovailoa

19. Jalen Hurts

20. Kirk Cousins

21. Sam Darnold

22. Justin Fields

23. Jared Goff

24. Jameis Winston

25. Drew Lock

Just outside – Cam Newton, Zach Wilson, Tom Brady (may never retire), Matt Ryan.

A top 25 is really tough as this list could change easily over the next few seasons depending on where players end up in the draft, free agency, and trades. I’m banking on upside and age which is why guys like Wilson and Rodgers are lower in my top 25. Also, remember this is just for the next five years! Sometimes, it takes young QBs three to five seasons to fully develop into the QB they’re drafted to be (unless you are Mitchell Trubisky and you just don’t get any better – disgruntled Bears fan here). Stay tuned for my running back edition coming this week.

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