Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Ravens Projections: They Run

Baltimore. Where running the ball is still a thing. Where all our 2019 fantasy dreams came true. Is the Lamar breakout for real, or a fluke? Hint: it wasn’t not a fluke. That’s less a hint, and more an outright answer, but I digress. In case you missed it, last time we covered the Cleveland Browns. This time, we check out the Ravens, where linebackers dance and quarterbacks run fast.

QB:

Will he run? Will he pass? Yes

Lamar Jackson: Passing: 260/435 3,094 Yds, 30 TD: 8 INT
Rushing: 130-775-6 TD: 9 FMBL
Standard: 340.26 (5)
0.5 PPR: 340.26 (5)
1 PPR: 340.26 (5)

Robert Griffin: Passing: 28/45 330 Yds 1 TD: 1 INT
Rushing: 16-61, 1 FMBL
Standard: 21.3 (41)
0.5 PPR: 21.3 (41)
1 PPR: 21.3 (41)

Lamar Jackson lovers are going to hate these projections. Frankly, I get it. He was a superstar in 2019. But he will not be rushing for 1,206 yards again. Not if he wants to be the starting QB for long. And Baltimore shouldn’t let him, either. Those are RB numbers in a QB body. Lamar can’t take that kind of beating over and over. And defenses are gonna be ready for him in 2020. He is still a fantasy stud, but he is no longer THE fantasy stud. I am expecting slight regression in all categories. Yell and scream all you want, these are my projections. And if I am wrong, I will happily eat crow.

Griffin is going to see the field some. Ravens fans hope in blowout wins. I hope it’s not because Baltimore decided to use their franchise QB as a running back with four solid RBs on their team. Don’t do it, Harbaugh, he isn’t going to last long if you do. I am avoiding Jackson at his ADP, but would be thrilled to get him late. Problem is, he will never go late.

RB:

This is your last year getting your picture here, Mark

Mark Ingram: Rushing: 160-800-7 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 34 targets, 23 catches, 184 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 151.4 (30)
0.5 PPR: 162.9 (30)
1 PPR: 174.4 (33)

J.K. Dobbins: Rushing: 113-598-4 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 39 targets, 25 catches, 216 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 116.4 (39)
0.5 PPR: 128.9 (42)
1 PPR: 141.1 (42)

Gus Edwards: Rushing: 71-320-2 TD
Receiving: 6 targets, 3 catches, 28 YDs
Standard: 46.8 (67)
0.5 PPR: 48.3 (70)
1 PPR: 49.8 (72)

Justice Hill: Rushing: 14-68
Receiving: 9 targets, 6 catches, 41 Yds
Standard: 10.9 (97)
0.5 PPR: 13.9 (96)
1 PPR: 16.9 (96)

What a beautiful backfield the Ravens have. All the better to run all over you with, dear! No team boasts a four deep backfield as talented as this. Hill is a serviceable RB2 on a lot of teams, as is Edwards. Ingram’s decrease in numbers has more to do with the addition of Dobbins than his age, but his age has a little to do with it too. Dobbins is uber-talented and should assume lead back status by next year at the latest. However, good luck stopping this quartet this year. They should stay fresh throughout the season.

Sadly, they each hurt each other’s fantasy prowess. Especially Dobbins and Ingram. An injury to either of those two instantly vaults the other into elite territory. Will they be injured with their workload managed as I project it to be? Seems unlikely to me. Snag Dobbins early in dynasty leagues, and enjoy the benefits in 2021 and beyond.

WR:

This picture does not do Brown’s speed justice!

Marquise Brown: Rushing: 3-38 1 FMBL
Receiving: 98 targets, 63 catches, 811 Yds, 8 TD
Standard: 131.9 (30)
0.5 PPR: 163.4 (33)
1 PPR: 194.9 (34)

Devin Duvernay: Rushing: 6-52
Receiving: 52 targets, 33 catches, 479 Yds, 3 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 70.1 (70)
0.5 PPR: 86.6 (73)
1 PPR: 103.1 (75)

Miles Boykin: Receiving: 54 targets, 31 catches, 465 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 70.5 (69)
0.5 PPR: 86 (74)
1 PPR: 101.5 (76)

Willie Snead: Receiving: 43 targets, 26 catches, 285 Yds, 3TD
Standard: 46.5 (97)
0.5 PPR: 59.5 (96)
1 PPR: 72.5 (95)

Chris Moore: Receiving: 7 targets, 3 catches, 29 Yds
Standard: 2.9 (169)
0.5 PPR: 4.4 (170)
1 PPR: 5.9 (170)

Hollywood! Where the streets are paved with speed and agility. Brown is gonna win some fantasy games in 2020, but I fear Lamar’s regression will prevent him from taking that leap into superstardom. However, I am all over him in dynasty leagues, as I do believe the Jackson regression is just a one year thing. Lamar is a worker. He should continue developing as he ages. Brown has the kind of speed you dream about.

Speaking of speed, Devin Duvernay joining this receiving corps seems unfair. I know Boykin is the two and will probably see the field more, but how the heck are defenses supposed to deal with Brown and Duvernay on the same field? Harbaugh will figure this out, and adjust accordingly. I like Boykin to have a solid year, but in dynasty I want Duvernay. Pairing him with Brown would be amazing. All three of the top guys have potential to go off on a game by game basis, but I don’t believe the consistency will be there yet.

Snead is going to be relegated to a low target share by the end of the year, when it matters most. I won’t be targeting him. And Moore is just screwed being surrounded by these weapons. Snag Brown and Duvernay, and even Boykin, but don’t expect to land your WR1 from this Ravens team.

TE:

I thought this was Gronk’s move?

Mark Andrews: Receiving: 79 targets, 51 catches, 633 Yds, 6 TD
Standard: 99.3 (7)
0.5 PPR: 124.8 (7)
1 PPR: 150.3 (7)

Nick Boyle: Receiving: 49 targets, 24 catches, 253 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 43.3 (36)
0.5 PPR: 55.3 (38)
1 PPR: 67.3 (38)

Mark Andrews was a revelation in 2019 for the Ravens. However, the regression I expect from Jackson hurts him too. He is still a borderline elite TE in 2020, but he is being taken a bit too early for my liking. I would be very satisfied having him as my starter, but he never makes it to me before being scooped up as a top 3 TE. I see him slightly below that.

Nick Boyle has some talent and will see some targets, but because of how high I am on other tight ends, I am not getting much exposure. He is a solid player, but in fantasy, he is mostly useful as the handcuff to Andrews. Keep an eye on him if you land Andrews.

I have the Ravens scoring 1295.56 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is 11th in the league. There is a lot of firepower on this offense, but the depth at RB and the lack of an aerial assault in 2020 will limit everyone’s ceilings a bit, except for Jacksons. However, you won’t go wrong dipping your toes into this Ravens offense, as they should still be able to score points. But rushing is their game, and rushing is what they will wanna do in 2020.

Let’s be real. Ravens fans. Lamar Jackson is still good. Just not 2019 good. I don’t care what you say. Actually, I do, and I wanna hear more from you. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers.