Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Fantasy Football

RB Injury Implications

Week 9 is right around the corner. We are just weeks away from fantasy playoffs starting. With the plethora of injuries we have seen this year, we have some interesting RB situations forming as the playoffs approach. There are some major fantasy implications as guys return from IR or are handed larger roles. So let’s get to those situations now.

Seahawks Backfield

The two backs in this mess you really wanna have.

Who are they: Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, Rashaad Penny.

Chris Carson is an RB1 when he plays. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and has averaged 1 TD a game. His volume has gone down slightly, but this offense gives him ample opportunities and defenses cannot focus on stopping the run. If healthy, Carson is going to be fantasy gold moving forward. But he runs violent, and while he hasn’t missed as many games as you might think, he does get banged up a lot. Odds are, Carson is going to miss some more time, opening the door for that fantasy gold to be mined by another RB.

Enter Carlos Hyde. He is relevant until Penny returns from the IR, but he himself is dealing with a hamstring injury, which can be very fickle and reinjure easily. But his 4 yards per carry average and 2 TDs on limited touches show he has fantasy relevance short-term.

Dallas and Homer are the odd men out, and can be streamed in most formats as injuries dictate, but nothing more unless season-ending injuries occur. Their upside is lower than the others. The real guy to look at is Penny. Penny averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year as a complement to Carson and should slot right back into that role upon his return. If Carson misses time when Penny is healthy, expect huge returns on your “Penny stocks”.

Browns Backfield

Hello fantasy beasts! This is a remarkable 1-2 punch.

Who are they: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D’Ernest Johnson

Nick Chubb should be heading back week 10 after the Browns bye this week, and he instantly becomes an RB1 once again. He was averaging a whopping 5.9 yards per carry, and a touchdown per game on the ground. He was once again proving why he is such a dangerous weapon in this offense. Hunt averaged 5.23 yards per carry in Chubb’s first 3 healthy games, but has averaged just 3.91 yards per carry in the games Chubb has missed. So getting Chubb back should not hurt Hunt’s value moving forward.

I included D’Ernest Johnson for two reasons. One, his name is fun to spell. And two, he had a pretty awesome game that one time. But he should not be included in this moving forward. If you have Chubb, like many of my squads, the wait is about to be worth it. Look at him as a mid-tier RB1. If you have Hunt, no fear, the production will continue. He’s a low-end RB1 high-end RB2.

Chargers Backfield

I challenge you to find a picture with any two of these backs. The matrix is broken.

Who are they: Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley

Austin Ekeler looks to be back as early as this week according to some reports. Jackson was injured early, and Kelley is the only back to play in every game. Kelley started the season stronger as Ekeler’s backup, but Jackson has surged in recent weeks. There is reason for optimism for both Jackson and Kelley to compliment Ekeler. Ekeler looks to be a surefire RB1 once again once he has a chance to play with Herbert. He is the perfect weapon for a rookie quarterback and will be used accordingly. As for the backup RB, I suspect Jackson is the hot hand and initially backs Ekeler up. But that second spot is not safe for either guy. Kelley is the bigger back and makes more sense complimenting Ekeler. I suspect Lynn rides the hotter hand.

Ekeler was averaging 5.1 yards per carry before going down. Expect his volume to increase in the passing game with Herbert. 5 plus catches a game will become the floor. Realistically, using Jackson or Kelley as flex depth is all you wanna have to do with a healthy Ekeler.

49ers Backfield

The backs involved in this revolving door backfield all know one thing. Raheem is king.

Who are they: Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Jamycal Hasty, Jeff Wilson

When Mostert is healthy, he is the only back you want. He is averaging an incredible 5.9 yards per carry, and was prolific as a pass-catcher, showing he can do everything. He has just looked better, as has the 49er offense with him healthy. He is banged up, but if he is healthy come playoffs he is gonna produce in big ways.

When he isn’t healthy, this is a crapshoot to the 5th degree. Coleman is out again, but if he returns, he will get run. Jerick McKinnon has back to back games with 3 carries for -1 yards on the ground. Yet he has proven effective this season. Wilson was exploding onto the scene with a huge fantasy game before being injured, and it is likely he will get touches when healthy as well. Then you have Hasty, who in limited action has been both good and bad. I think Hasty gets the boot when everyone is healthy.

I would like to reiterate, healthy Mostert is the sure thing in this RB unit and has the highest ceiling. Health is everything in this backfield, and because predicting those things is tricky, I have some exposure to McKinnon as well as Wilson where able. The 49ers like to run, and they are good at it. With Kittle now out, San Fran is going to have to run the ball a lot. Acquiring Mostert could be the smartest move of your season if he can stay healthy.

Lions Backfield

Shout out to a living legend and one of the best to ever do it. He is still going strong in 2020.

Who are they: D’Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, Kerryon Johnson

Despite averaging a modest 3.8 yards per carry average, AD has been a joy to watch run in 2020. The man can still play. He will not see as many touches moving forward, but will get enough to justify picking him up if you have RB emergencies. Kerryon Johnson was on the edge of irrelevance before he snuck a TD in last week on a catch. I know some of you were thinking whoa, Kerryon scored, should I pick him back up? No, the answer is a resounding no. He has no place on your fantasy roster moving forward. Old man Peterson gets more touches. What more do you need to know?

D’Andre Swift is the man moving forward. He has been targeted consistently this season and has 23 catches so far. Look for that number to climb steadily. A 4.5 yards per carry average is solid for this rookie who took a few games to get his feet under him. But the leash is loosening. Outside an outlier game against the Colts where Detroit trailed a lot, Swift was getting more involved in the offense. Expect the rookie to stretch his legs even more as the year progresses, receiving excellent volume by the time fantasy playoffs begin. This guy could win some leagues.

Bills Backfield

Look who looked like a lead back last week?

Who are they: Zack Moss, Devin Singletary

Zack Moss truthers, take a bow. Moss is averaging 6.1 yards per carry in his last two games, along with two TDs. His work in the passing game, however, along with his 2.64 yards per carry average in the prior 3 games, are causes for concern, but he took the reins last week and the job is now his to lose.

Singletary has been good but not great, producing steadily yet unspectacularly. His 1 TD disappoints. But he is getting involved in the passing game. This might turn out to be a split backfield when it comes to fantasy purposes. Moss showed me enough to be excited about him moving forward, but Singletary remains relevant due to his target share. Neither of these guys look like more than flex plays moving forward because of Josh Allen and his red zone rushing skills.

Chiefs Backfield

Why wouldn’t I use this picture?

Who are they: Le’Veon Bell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

CEH owners, relax. Although I have tried telling you countless times, over and over again, that CEH is not an RB1. He is a good RB, but not the guy people were claiming he was. Which is an RB1. He is an RB2 with upside. But his lack of power in the red zone opens up the door for another back to have fantasy relevance.

When that other back is Le’Veon Bell, things get interesting. While he hasn’t been particularly efficient so far in KC, he is the bigger back and is going to get the goal-line carries. CEH has been anemic in the goal to go scenarios, and Bell has fantasy value because of it. In PPR leagues especially, CEH is the back to own moving forward. He is going to get the most volume and be the most involved in the offense. But in TD leagues, Bell has value, and he is a flex option in the right matchups. This offense outside Kelce and Hill just has too many weapons to know who is going to consistently produce. But CEH > Bell moving forward, no doubt.

Buccaneers Backfield

These guys are studs. They are good at football too.

Who are they: Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones

Consider me bought in on Ronald Jones. He has 4 TDs and 529 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. He has been brutally effective on the ground, albeit unimpressive in the passing game. His nickname is not “Hands”. But his work on the ground has been fantastic. He is running with power in 2020, and he has made his case to be the top RB option in Tampa Bay.

Leonard Fournette is also averaging 4.5 yards per carry this year. He only has 50 carries to Jones’ 117, but he has been more efficient in the passing game and has the track record to prove his effectiveness through the air. Fournette is a rare talent, and this offense opens things up for everyone. Jones should still see a slight volume advantage moving forward, That being said, over the last two games, Fournette has had more carries and targets. Jones will remain an efficient option out of the backfield, but Fournette is going to get a volume increase because of his versatility, and is the back to own moving forward.

Cardinals Backfield

This has been the best back in the desert this year. (It’s Edmonds, for those who don’t know player numbers)

Who are they: Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake

Yes, Drake is currently injured, so this is currently a no-brainer in favor of Edmonds. However, Edmonds has been the better back, and should retain the role when Drake returns. He has just been better. Drake does have 512 yards on 119 carries for a 4.3 yards per carry average, along with 4 TDs. However, he only has 10 targets and 7 catches for 29 yards on the year, which is highly concerning no matter how you look at it.

Meanwhile, Edmonds, as the second RB, has 29 carries for 176 yards and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, He has scored 1 TD on the ground, and 2 through the air. he also has 26 catches on 32 targets for another 222 yards. The volume is about to increase, and Edmonds is going to thrive, relegating Drake to second RB on the depth chart when he gets healthy. And don’t let Drake’s season numbers fool you. If you remove a week 6 outing at Dallas where he ran wild, Drake is averaging 3.6 yards per carry on 99 carries. And he has 2 total touchdowns. That is not the RB we were expecting to see in 2020.

Thanks for reading. Is there a backfield you wanna talk about? Let me know. Think I’m wrong? Show me why. You can find me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and you can follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy sports goodies. May your RB be the top-scoring RB every week moving forward, unless you are playing me.