I still don’t understand how the hype for this guy is going so strong. I didn’t think this article would be needed but the guy is being drafted as the WR18 in dynasty leagues and WR21 in redraft ones! Sell high on Christian Watson.

Reasons for his hype

It’s all based on the 4 game stretch for week 10-13 where he had 7 touchdowns. He was the WR3 in PPR leagues over that span (WR1 in standard scoring). Furthermore, he had 9.3 yards per target and 2.26 yards per route run. Those are very efficient numbers. He is also young and does not have a difficult depth chart to compete with.

What Really Happened in Week 10-13?

In his 4 game stretch, he only had 15 receptions. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat. Those are also the only 4 games Romeo Doubs did not play. Many of those TDs were from throws that weren’t easy because the defenders were pretty tight on him.

What Did He Do Outside of Weeks 10-13?

Christian Watson only had one other game where he was better than WR40. In the entire season, he had no games above 8 targets and he had no games above 6 receptions. He did have three 100-yard games and two multi-touchdown games so the occasional boom is there for him, but that is not sustainable. I would be worried to start him every week with his floor being so low.

The Future

The big reason he should be faded is the QB change. Recency bias is huge in dynasty leagues. Aaron Rodgers is one year removed from being a back-to-back MVP but after one year, people think he sucks. Jordan Love should be a massive downgrade. He had decent draft capital, but he wasn’t that great of a prospect and we’ve seen better prospects bust. Aaron Rodgers is one of the most accurate quarterbacks and that helps for someone like Christian Watson who isn’t great at separating. Jordan Love isn’t known to be that accurate downfield and that can particularly hurt Watson’s efficiency, not to mention the Green Bay offence as a whole. Lazard is gone, but they brought in 3 new potential receivers on day 2, so I don’t think the depth chart is much better for him.

Who’s Going Behind Him?

Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel, DJ Moore, Treylon Burks, Terry McLaurin, Brandon Aiyuk, Jameson Williams, Chris Godwin, Marquise Brown, and Diontae Johnson are all going after him. If you offered me Christian Watson and a 2024 2nd for any of these guys, I’d easily decline that offer (unless it was to flip him because of how overvalued he is). None of these guys are old and they are all either much better prospects or have proven much more.

Wrap-Up

Christian Watson is an athletic beast. He’s young, he’s big, and he’s fast. But he wasn’t able to dominate a wide receiver room where his top competition was Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs. I think that shows us that he isn’t talented enough to dominate his current wide receiver room either and with the downgrade to Love, I don’t see how he could be drafted as a WR2 in dynasty or redraft. Sell high on Christian Watson.

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