Finding a quarterback who puts up high fantasy numbers while being good enough and young enough in real life to be a multi-year franchise QB is hard to find. I personally can identify 9-10 of them: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and maybe Deshaun Watson. In my opinion, most of these quarterbacks are appropriately valued right now by most besides one. Sell high on Joe Burrow.

Any of these quarterbacks should be very expensive to acquire in leagues with 12 or more teams where you can start more than one quarterback. So I am not saying that Joe Burrow isn’t valuable in dynasty leagues. However, I am saying he is overpriced.

An example of this is that someone offered the 2022 1.02, 1.03, and 1.04 for Joe Burrow in our 16-team Superflex league. Not only does it seem crazy to me that someone offered that trade, but that trade was turned down. Even if you don’t want those picks for this 2022 class, it’s clear the valuation for Burrow is very high. I am also hearing many saying Burrow is worth significantly more than Kyler Murray.

Why He’s Overrated

The fantasy community is very prone to recency bias. From recent injuries making someone “injury prone”, to down weeks making people “busts”. Joe Burrow ended the 2021-22 season on a tear. He put up back-to-back QB1 overall finishes to end the season then went on to nearly lead his team to a Super Bowl title. That sounds very impressive, but not when you look at the big picture.

In his entire 26 game career, he has only had four games above being the QB8. Many have said Dak has had a disappointing season when he has had eight games above QB8 this season alone. By FantasyPros metrics, Joe Burrow only put up great games 25 percent of the time. By contrast, Dak achieved that in 50 percent of his while battling injuries.

Not only is Burrow regularly ranked above Dak, but he’s also regularly ranked above Lamar Jackson and often above Kyler Murray as well! To me, this is ridiculous. Without a rushing floor and without having proven he’s a generational passer, I see no reason to rank him that high. There aren’t many pocket passers that can be elite for fantasy. People are acting as if Burrow is already set to be the next Brady or Rodgers. I am not saying he can’t get there, but he definitely hasn’t shown enough to prove that’s a likely outcome. A common mistake people make is to take projected production over proven production.

The Longevity Argument

Some may argue that rushing QBs have short lifespans while pocket passers last longer. First of all, I don’t care too much about possible longevity when there’s a significant drop in fantasy performance. Secondly, just because Joe Burrow is a pocket passer doesn’t mean he’s less prone to getting injured.

Andrew Luck is the poster child for sacks. After 30 career starts, he had 73 sacks, however, he also had no significant injuries in that time frame. After 30 career starts, Joe Burrow has had 102 sacks along with a torn ACL, MCL, PCL, and meniscus. He also had a dislocated finger and an MCL sprain. Getting a blindside sack can be much worse than getting tackled as an RB.

The fact that many have Joe Burrow as a top four or five QB when he has never shown sustained elite fantasy production is ridiculous to me. If you have Joe Burrow, I’d sell him ASAP. If you don’t have him, now is not the time to buy.

What to Ask For

If you can get Kyler or Lamar for Burrow, I’d take that easily. If you can get any significant piece on top of Dak, I’d do that as well. Another target could be Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson and two 2023 firsts. In general, if anyone is willing to give up the equivalent of three pieces that are either high 2022 firsts or any 2023 first, I’d take it. Also, if you can use a depth piece along with Burrow to upgrade to Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Justin Herbert, I’d do that as well.

Wrap-Up

I hope this helps you to see why people should sell high on Joe Burrow. Unless he becomes a Hall of Fame level passer like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, he won’t be able to be a top-tier fantasy QB because he rarely gains yards on the ground. I’d imagine his fantasy trajectory is closer to the careers of Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. That is still valuable but not to the level of Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray with their rushing floor and ceiling.

He’s a good real-life quarterback. I think that’s a large contributing factor to his hype. But remember, real-life performance does not equate with fantasy performance.

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