Fantasy football production doesn’t always relate to NFL football production. This is rarely more emphasized than with QBs. Tom Brady was never the top fantasy QB despite being the best in the league for many years. On the other hand, middling QBs who can run are often some of the best fantasy options because rushing yards and touchdowns are worth more in most leagues.

A great example of this is Justin Fields. To be fair, his team did not set him up to succeed this past year. The best weapon they gave him was a mediocre receiver in Darnell Mooney. And he was injured for much of the season. There weren’t great options beyond him. That being said, Fields has not proven he’s even a decent NFL QB through his first two seasons. Would people be surprised if he was out of a starting gig this time next year? I don’t think so. I did a poll with about 100 respondents and most people thought that a best, he had a roughly 50% chance of maintaining his job in the next 1-2 years. Despite that, people are drafting him as the QB7 as a top 10 pick in Superflex drafts! This article is about reasons to sell high on Justin Fields.

The Upside

Here is the narrative I see people thinking to themselves: Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were guys who did not impress out of the gate. They were good for fantasy because of their legs, and eventually developed into great QBs. These three are all young and could be starting for the next decade.

However, is it logical that the norm would be that bad passers who can run develop into good passers? Definitely not. This is the NFL where only the best QBs get to stick around for long. Allen and Hurts are the exceptions, not the rules.

Even if Fields turns into a decent passer, where he’s being drafted is already close to his ceiling. There isn’t much room for his value to increase.

A Likely Reality

Justin Fields has been a subpar passer for two years. I don’t think it’s a stretch to think it’s very plausible he’s a subpar passer for a third straight year, even with the new additions to the team. If that happens and the Bears end up with a top pick in what should be a good 2024 QB draft class, what do you think happens next? Fields could never put up a fantasy point again after this year. Remember, this is not the same management team that drafted him so their reputation is not tied to him. Sure he has a big ceiling because of his legs, but what he’s shown leads to a possibility of a useless floor in 2024 and beyond. Are you really willing to say that such a player is top-10 in dynasty leagues?

Wrap-Up

Unless you’re a major gambler who doesn’t care for much upside, avoid Justin Fields at his price. The odds of him exceeding his current value are minimal and the opportunity cost involved with having him on your fantasy team would lead to a big hit to your dynasty roster if he’s done soon. Unless he takes a massive step forward early this season, talks of him losing his job will grow and his value will plummet as people realize how reckless it is to value such an insecure asset so highly. Sell high on Justin Fields.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me on Twitter.