We’re only a few weeks away from the NFL draft! As many people know, draft picks tend to rise in value all the way until the NFL draft. I would not recommend selling them until closer to your fantasy rookie drafts. An exception is you’re trying to buy someone who you think will also rise in value. Another is if you think you’re selling your pick at or above the value it will have at your rookie draft. But I will recommend that you sell high on late 1sts.

Who You’re Missing On

If you have a late first, you’re likely not getting Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson (assuming high draft capital), Will Levis (assuming high draft capital), Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet (assuming day 2 draft capital), or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After those players are gone, I think the other prospects have a roughly 50/50 shot of even being startable for fantasy. At that point, I’d rather get proven players. Another option is to try to trade for multiple picks. That could include early 2nds and/or future 1sts that have a chance at being early.

Targets

Based on ADP, these are proven players I’d rather have over those late 1sts. This list includes Chris Godwin, Marquise Brown, Amari Cooper, JK Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Russell Wilson, and George Kittle.

Wrap-Up

Almost everyone wants 1st round picks in dynasty fantasy football. For some reason, there is often a much larger difference between the 1.12 and the 2.01 than from the 1.10 to the 1.12, even though it should be the other way around. In reality, in this draft class, because of how large the tier is after the top 8 guys I mentioned, I don’t see late 1sts as that different from early 2nds. This is why you should sell high on late 1sts. Sure there is a chance you could be missing on a sleeper prospect, but the odds are low. On the other hand, it could be a good idea to try and acquire early-to-mid 2nds if you can get them significantly cheaper.

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