This year, I had the honor of being invited to participate in Scott Fish Bowl for the first time. This was a goal of mine when I set out on this journey with Belly Up Sports last October. To say it was everything I expected and nothing what I expected at the same time is extremely fair. From a community stand point it was even better than I anticipated. The kindness and genuine friendliness of everyone I have interacted with has been refreshing and motivating. What I wasn’t prepared for was when my 3rd round pick came, we were already at the QB22 or worse. Below are my #SFB12 draft results.

This is where the “zig” came in to play. I think the most important part of any fantasy football draft is to be able to adjust and pivot. It is not to make sure we come in with a plan and stick to it. That thinking is unrealistic and will sink many teams before the first kickoff even happens. We should do plenty of research going in to a draft and be prepared to pivot from “our plan.”

Self-Inflicted

Now admittedly, I did what ensued in this draft to myself. I took a risk of picking a running back first in hope I would get the QBs I wanted later. I saw plenty of other divisions where that strategy would have worked. In the Rio de Janeiro division however, that was not the case. Instead of panicking I made the decision to push off my QB pick. I felt I could get away with some very strategic picks that catered to the scoring of the league.

Let’s get in to it. Remember, we are drafting in a vacuum where our decisions are 100% based on the actions of 11 other individuals. The decisions I made may not have been the same decisions I would have made in another division. I ask you to remember this when commenting on other’s teams. Be kind and remember there are multiple ways to get from point A to B. Let’s keep this community friendly and cooperative.

The Pebble In The Pond

When we throw a pebble in to a pond it creates a ripple effect. No, I am not about to drop some deep philosophical knowledge on you. If you came to this article expecting that, I hate to disappoint. This does relate in the case of drafting though. Each of our decisions at each pick will determine our next few picks to unknown bounds at the time. We can plan, but we have no clue what our pick will do to the fragility of a fantasy draft.

With The Second Overall Pick…

Choosing Jonathan Taylor with the second overall pick I had no clue it would lead me to a fade approach. I came in with a rough plan, but had no intentions of forcing myself to follow it to a “T.” Whatever happened after that, I was prepared to handle, whether others agree with my methods or not. If we do what others say to do, then we will go no further than the ceiling of others. I would rather fall through the floor jumping for the ceiling than fall asleep on the couch with everyone else.

When the massive run on QBs started it became clear that the value of the positions left would be higher than a QB. I have gotten a lot of flack for this thinking, and I get it. The scoring format in Scott Fish Bowl places a massive emphasis on quarterback play and efficiency. We hit a point in the positional tiers though where there is a drop off from safe floor and endless ceiling. It goes to more of a risk of negative points week in and out. Quarterbacks get negative points for incompletions and completion percentage under 66%. We will hit a point where any quarterback we take has a higher chance of hurting us than helping us.

With this thinking in my head, I chose to pivot to Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs with my next 2 picks because I felt like their floor was safe than the basement of the quarterbacks available at the time. Both of those players also offer a ceiling higher than the quarterbacks available at the same time of the draft.

Hidden In Plain Sight

When I made the decision to wait on a quarterback, I did so intently with a few guys in mind. For instance, someone I knew was going to drop multiple rounds was Baker Mayfield. I stand by my takes because I don’t make them unless I fully believe them. It does not mean I am always right on them, but there is an integrity I choose to operate with where I can admit where I am wrong and still believe in my process of arriving at my take.

Baker Mayfield is a perfect example of someone I knew I could get later than his value because of the hate surrounding him and his new situation. Mayfield is coming from a banged up injury season with an incredibly inefficient and dysfunctional organization. Believe me, Carolina is not necessarily a more functional organization, but it offers a new situation for a largely routine and managerial style of quarterback and leader.

Taking Advantage Of The Stats

When we look at the stats and players effected by Mayfield’s move to Carolina, we find ourselves with a perfect storm. I view Mayfield as a game manager who has the arm strength to keep defenses honest. This could allow him to take advantage of high percentage plays that are presented to him. Enter stage right, Christian McCaffery. With the threat of DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and the rookie Terrace Marshall making full use of the field, Mayfield should be able to take full advantage of the skill set of CMC. This plays directly in to Mayfield being useful in the scoring that gives a bonus for completion percentage of over 66%. Short efficient passes should lead to a lot of manufactured yards and points.

This was the exact type of value and edge I knew very early on in this draft that I was going to have to target. Mayfield is not exactly the most flashy QB1 in Scott Fish Bowl this year, but I just need him to be efficient and safe so that the high end picks I made in the time I waited for quarterback can pay off and hit their ceilings.

Bet The House And Hedge The Yard

With the way the draft played out for me I knew I was going to have to make some risky plays, which meant making some smart hedges on those plays. For instance, I talked about my risk on Baker Mayfield. I was able to use my last pick of the draft on Sam Darnold who is technically still in a battle for the starting job. However, I believe Sam Darnold will be released and signed by Seattle. This was an easy hedge for me with the possibility of getting two starters out of a current situation where only one can start.

The Saint’s Hedge

Another hedge I made was drafting Michael Thomas and then snagging Chris Olave. This was very intentional by me and one of the few plans I had coming in to the draft that panned out. Jameis Winston at the helm changes the outlook for this entire Saints offense, let alone a new coaching staff. What could return to normal though is the potential dominance of Michael Thomas. Considering I got him as my WR4 out of eight on my team was worth that upside in my eyes.

What I wanted to do though was get Olave, because I believe even if Thomas is somewhat close to his previous production that there can be a role for Olave in this offense, especially with a gun slinger like Winston and questions in the Saint’s backfield. It is my belief that between the two of them I have the chance at having a top 20 wide receiver.

I also made a hedge play when I drafted both Hassan Haskins and Dontrell Hilliard. Given the injury history and the amount of miles on the tires for Derrick Henry, this seemed like a good backfield to attack for some depth. Tannehill prefers high percentage throws, and without his star receiver in AJ Brown, I believe the pass catching backs get more involved. Plus, if Henry goes down and misses time, then given this offense I think one of these two guys can be more than serviceable.

The End Of The Beginning

Championships are won during the season, not at the draft. I believe I have put myself in a position where I have not lost my division by any means yet. There’s a lot of work to be done and drafting is one way to be in position to be able to work smarter during the season. Let me know what you think about my team, as I am big in interacting in this community and meeting new people and hearing different perspectives on things.

If you would like me to write a public article reviewing your team and maybe give you a little bit of light-hearted good-fun roasting, you can message me on Twitter. All of my contact information is below for you to do so.

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