Welcome to week 7, one of the hardest weeks for the starts and sits article. At this point, it’s hard to write these starts and sits up , because with the byes and injuries everyone available looks like a good option. For this week 7 edition of the starts and sits, I dug deep into the matchups and some of the circumstances around these player’s status going into their games. I hope you guys enjoy this week’s starts and sits and best of luck in your matchups this week.

Quarterback

Starts

Tua Tagovailoa vs Atlanta Falcons

It’s still Tua time in Miami and last week he threw for 329 yards and 2 TDs. This was his comeback week after being out just about five games. He looked good and amongst rumors of him being shipped out, this game gives him a chance to show off his talent. Tua has the weapons with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle to make this weak Falcons pay this week. Look for Tua to have another big game and play like a QB1 on Sunday, my prediction is 275 passing yards and 3 TDs.

Derek Carr vs Philadelphia Eagles

This throw from Derek Carr is perfect 🎯
pic.twitter.com/k9EMz9e8iL

— PFF (@PFF) October 17, 2021

Carr looks like a leader in Las Vegas, someone to invest your future in at the quarterback position. One week after losing Head Coach Jon Gruden, Carr went out a genuinely looked like he was having fun. Against a solid Broncos defense, Carr threw for 341 yards and 2 TDs on 27 pass attempts, one thing that happened in that game was the Raiders’ offense was evenly distributed. Everyone got involved in the offense and that makes for a tricky week to week with skill players but an easy decision at QB. The Eagles have allowed 20 fantasy points on average to opposing quarterbacks since Week 2. Look for Carr to spread the ball around and get everyone involved again in this game. My prediction is 300 passing yards and 3 TDs for Carr.

Sits

Jalen Hurts vs Las Vegas Raiders

I have an argument for this decision, while Jalen Hurts has been the “worst elite QB1” this year. I’m going to give you some stats that explain this title, as a passer Hurts has a true competition percentage of 68.4 (27th among QBs), he’s thrown the second most interceptable passes (19). As a runner though Hurts has 14 red zone carries, averages 50 rushing yards/game, and has 5 rushing TDs. After six weeks, Hurts is QB5 in fantasy. So why are the Raiders going to give him trouble? In week 1 against the Ravens, the Raiders gave the best running QB in the game Lamar Jackson a lot of trouble. In that game, Lamar had 321 total yards and a TD, but he was sacked 3 times and fumbled the ball 3 times. The defensive line set the edge well and contained Lamar enough to make an impact. I think this recipe could be dialed up again this week against the Eagles. My prediction is that Hurts has 200 passing yards, a TD, and an INT, but rushing has 60 yards, a TD, and a fumble.

Daniel Jones vs Carolina Panthers

Jones shouldn’t have been out there last week, but still went out and tried his hardest. Unfortunately, he had 4 turnovers (3 Ints and a lost fumble), just a miserable day for a QB who in previous games only had one turnover. This Giants team is almost fully broken and Jones is going to be practically weaponless in this game. Look for an identical game to last week against the Rams, this Panthers defense is blitz-happy and has a decent secondary. My prediction for Jones is that he’ll struggle once again this week passing for 200 yards, 1 TD, 1-3 INTs.

Running Back

Starts

James Conner vs Houston Texans

James Conner AGAIN. #RedSea

📺: #AZvsJAX on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/yH1nDzS7PT

— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2021

Conner is here to stay and should be considered a strong start candidate for this week’s matchup against the bottom-dwelling Texans. The Texans have allowed the second-most yards (848) and the most rushing TDS (11) to opposing rushers. Conner has 5 TDs threw six weeks in the 2021 season while ranking in the top-10 in red-zone touches (19) and goalline carries (5). His role has been predominantly to take the ball into the endzone and he’s facing the team that can’t stop anyone. My prediction is Conner goes for 50 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

Cordarrelle Patterson vs Miami Dolphins

Patterson is back from a bye and should be a play this week against a Dolphins defense that has given up 140 yards and 2 TDs in the past two games. For those two games, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 4.8 yards/carry. Patterson has averaged 8.2 carries/game, 4.1 yards/carry, while averaging 5 receptions/game and 59 yards/game. This seems like an excellent matchup for Patterson, who could easily put up big numbers against a fleeting Dolphins defense. My prediction is 40 rushing yards and 5 catches for 50 yards and a TD.

Sits

Khalil Herbert vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Damien Williams is still on the Covid list, which leads me to believe that Herbert will start this game against the Buccaneers. Herbert was a nice find in the fifth round of the draft and has proven he can be effective in the NFL, putting up 172 yards and a TD in his first two starts. This week he takes on the very stingy Bucs team who have only allowed 329 yards and 3 TDs in six games. To say the least, this week will be a tough challenge for the young back. My prediction is that Herbert gets 50 rushing yards and no TD.

Jamaal Williams vs the LA Rams

With the bye weeks and injuries popping up it’s hard to leave anyone out of your lineups. Williams though has been trending in the wrong direction since his hot start. The snap percentages have gone down to 30 percent in the last three weeks. This is a mixture of injuries and Williams’s lack of involvement in the receiving game. Playing against a Rams defense that has only given up 88 yards to starting running backs in the past two weeks. While the Rams defense has given up 4.4 ypc in 2021, their best defense has been their offense’s ability to get ahead and force opposing teams to match their pace. This usually leads to more air yards and should give more attention to stablemate D’Andre Swift.

Wide Receiver

Starts

Sterling Shephard vs Carolina Panthers

The Giants injury list currently reads Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney. Sounds like this week is a Shephard week, last Sunday he had 14 targets, 10 receptions, and 76 yards. This guy has 9 or more targets in 3 of his 4 games played and might’ve been on his way to a fourth if not for an injury. This game may get out of hand early and if it does then look for Shephard to be soaking up all the targets. My prediction for Shephard is 10 receptions for 90-100 yards.

Deebo Samuel vs Indianapolis Colts

Coming off a bye week, Deebo and the 49ers will look to take advantage of a Colts secondary that’s been beaten up and exposed all year. Averaging 10 targets/game this season, Samuel has proven to be the alpha in San Francisco. The Colts on the other hand have given up the second-most TDs (14) to opposing wide receivers. Look for Samuel to get all the opportunities to score in this Sunday night game. My prediction is 100 receiving yards and a TD this week.

Sits

Corey Davis vs New England Patriots

An early-season re-match with the New England Patriots gives me flashbacks of his Week 2 stat-line of 2 catches for 8 yards on 5 targets. No, thank you! Davis is a good receiver, but this Jets squad is putrid and the Patriots are starting to look hot. I don’t see a scenario where the Jets come out of this bye and look drastically different. For that reason, I’m saying Davis has another rough game against the Patriots secondary. My prediction is 3 catches for 40 receiving yards.

Rondale Moore vs Houston Texans

This Cardinals offense has used Moore rather sparingly so far as his highest snap percentage to date has been 56 percent. This has been rather indicative of the offense’s need for his explosive playmaking ability. In games that the Cardinals’ opponents are 7 or fewer points ahead, Moore’s has a higher average snap percentage (46%) than when the team is firmly in control of the game. With fewer snaps comes less production, in games where the Cardinals are 8 or more points ahead, Moore’s averages are 5 receptions for 43 yards. If they are ahead by 7 or fewer points, Moore averages 7 receptions for 86 yards. This game against the Texans has a positive game script written all over it. So my prediction is that Moore has 3 catches for 50 receiving yards.

Tight Ends

Starts

Zach Ertz vs Houston Texans

Ertz is getting a new opportunity in Arizona and draws an excellent matchup this week against the Houston Texans. The Texans have allowed 6 TDs to opposing TEs and one in 5 of 6 games this year. This is a team that can’t cover a TE in the red zone and I think that trend continues in this game. My prediction for Ertz is a strong showing with his new team, 4 receptions for 50 yards, and a TD.

Ricky Seals-Jones vs Green Bay Packers

Ricky Seals-Jones has a true every-down role, is actually a good receiver, free in fantasy land, set up great in a shootout against the Chiefs, and it’s like none of you even care pic.twitter.com/H0ld2bIFt4

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 13, 2021

Seals-Jones has gotten targeted 15 times in the past two games. His usage since Logan Thomas went down has been that of a low-end TE1/high-end TE2. Seals-Jones has been for the most part a product of the team being down for most of the game. Against the Packers, the Football Team should be down again and this should lead to more targets for Seals-Jones. My prediction for Seals-Jones is he’ll have 4 receptions for 40 yards and a TD.

Sits

Jonnu Smith vs New York Jets

Smith and Hunter Henry’s situation is an interesting one, for the first four weeks as Smith was targeted 21 times to Henry’s 18. Over the last two weeks targets have shifted more to Henry as he’s received 10 targets to Jonnu’s 4. Smith also has another predicament in the fact that the Jets don’t allow tight-end TDs. . Smith also has another predicament in the fact that the Jets don’t allow tight-end TDs. Not because they are good, but usually because they can’t stop the run game and get behind early. Not because they are good, but usually because they can’t stop the run game and get behind early. My prediction is Jonnu puts up 4 receptions for 30-50 yards.

Dallas Goedert vs Las Vegas Raiders

First off I love the opportunities that have opened up for Goedert this season since the departure of Zach Ertz. My big issue this week is he’s fresh off the Covid-IR and as of Thursday hasn’t practiced with the team. This tells me he may see fewer snaps due to conditioning factors. My prediction for this game is that Goedert catches 5 balls for 40 yards and no TDs.

Conclusion

This is week 7 and the Belly Up starts and sits is here to help you optimize your lineups. My goal with these starts and sits is to get your guy’s team to the next level. This is going to be an interesting week with Dallas, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, and Buffalo all on byes. This is the perfect time for our starts and sits article and we hope we can help your team win week 7. I hope you guys enjoy this week’s starts and sits and let’s get that dub.

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