What a time to be alive. Big-screen televisions are on sale everywhere. There are beer and snack specials galore. More food will be consumed on Sunday than any other holiday but Thanksgiving. And tens of millions have either already taken off or will call in to work on Monday. Super Bowl LVII is here. (That’s Super Bowl 57 for those of you who don’t mathematize in Latin.) Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the weeks and hours of pre-event hype won’t lead to a two-minute payoff. The top two seeds survived the gauntlet, and we should be treated to three-plus hours of fireworks. It’s our final shot at NFL game bets and DFS plays for the season. From here to September, we’ll have to subsist on a diet of draft and free agency props (unless you’re a fantasy basketball or baseball fan.)

Kansas City has their work cut out for them if they want to win a second Lombardi under Andy Reid. The Philadelphia Eagles bring the league’s second-ranked offense and a top-10 defense to the desert on Sunday. But the Chiefs still boast the best offense in the league, and should have most of their top weapons available. Kansas City’s defense just pressured Joe Burrow into five sacks and two interceptions. And, oh, yeah, their MVP quarterback has an endorsement deal with the folks who have their name on the stadium in Glendale. After all the Burrowhead talk, I’m sure Kansas City fans are ready for a little “Mahomes-field advantage”. You can find the game on FOX at 6:30 pm EST this Sunday, February 12.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Showdown ranks for FLEX position unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Super Bowl LVII Preview: Chiefs’ Offense

As mentioned, the Chiefs had the league’s top offense this season. For fantasy purposes, the usual suspects were their usual reliable selves. League MVP Patrick Mahomes was the top fantasy quarterback, leading the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Travis Kelce was the top-scoring fantasy tight end, leading the league’s tight ends in almost every receiving category.

But there were some pleasant surprises this season as well. Jerick McKinnon emerged as one of the league’s best pass-catching running backs. Rookie Isiah Pacheco outplayed his seventh-round draft slot and looks like a starting running back. And while no one player stepped up into the “Tyreek Hill” slot for Kansas City, their deep receiving corps had five different wideouts score multiple touchdowns.

For as much as the Chiefs looked unstoppable in the regular season, it’s been a grind here in the playoffs with a couple of one-score wins. Against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs needed a field goal on the game’s final play from scrimmage to advance. Kelce has once again been the league’s top tight end, but an injury to Mahomes’s ankle, injuries to several wideouts, and a couple of tough defenses have placed a governor on Andy Reid’s high-motor offense. After averaging almost 414 offensive yards per game in the regular season, the Chiefs have averaged just 360 yards in their two playoff games, including a paltry 44 yards rushing against Cincinnati.

DFS Outlook

Philadelphia has been strong on defense, both over the course of the season and during their two playoff matchups. Even if you discount what happened with San Francisco with the Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson injuries, the Eagles absolutely destroyed the Giants two weeks after almost losing to them in a game where New York rested their top offensive weapons. Philly surrendered the fewest passing yards of any defense in the NFL this season. It’s a strength-on-strength matchup here as the Chiefs’ top-ranked passing offense will try to find the holes in the Eagles’ secondary. I’m not expecting Kansas City to put up their usual offensive numbers.

That said, Mahomes ($11,000) remains a fine play, as he’s reliably spread the ball around all season. He did throw for five scores in two games against the Chargers, who had the number three defense against the pass this season. He’s cheaper than Hurts if you’re looking to put a quarterback in your showdown lineups, especially if you want a quarterback as your captain. I have Pacheco ($7,200) as my top overall running back this week. He’s already their top rush back, but he’s also seen more targets than Jerick McKinnon ($6,800) in the playoffs. I’m starting him this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6,200) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,600) are affordable, but both feel like roster filler to me even in light of MVS’s big AFC Championship performance. Kadarius Toney ($4,400) is healthy and could be a sneaky end-of-roster play. Kelce ($10,600) is almost a must-go, even at the price. He’s perhaps the most matchup-proof player in fantasy. Heck, he’s even got an argument as a contrarian captain play, but playing him or either quarterback as your captain will eat up almost half of your budget.

Super Bowl LVII Preview: Eagles’ Offense

Sure, you can argue all day long about the path the Eagles have taken to State Farm Stadium, but they can argue right back. And they have receipts. The Giants were coming off a big road win against Minnesota in the Wild Card round. Daniel Jones had passed for over 300 yards. Saquon Barkley had a couple of rushing scores. Isaiah Hodgins said a big, “Hello!” to anyone who wasn’t already acquainted. But the Giants looked completely hapless against the Philly D. New York managed just 227 total yards in the contest. Matt Breida was able to score a token touchdown in the third quarter after Brian Daboll poked the Giants with a stick to see if they were dead, but that was it. At the same time, Jalen Hurts was busy throwing for a pair of scores and rushing for another as Philadelphia racked up 38 points.

The Eagles followed that up by knocking Kyle Shanahan’s vaunted 49er offense back to the turn of the last century. Brock Purdy left the game with a torn UCL. His backup (San Francisco’s fourth-string quarterback) Josh Johnson then was forced from the game under the league’s concussion protocols. Purdy would reenter the game, but was basically limited to receiving snaps and immediately handing off. The Eagles would score four times on the ground against the Niners’ second-ranked rush defense en route to another 30+ point day. This team is legit on both sides of the ball, and they’re playing good football when it counts.

DFS Outlook

Speaking of receipts, I’m on record as saying I think the Eagles take this one. I’m not alone in that, but just so there’s no ambiguity:

Eagles 31-23 Chiefs

— Chase Thornton-Belly Up Fantasy Sports ???? (@SttChaseFFB) February 9, 2023

It should be no surprise, then, that I’m plugging Eagles into my showdown lineups. Kansas City this season has actually been a middle-of-the-road unit on the field, but they’ve been a golden fantasy matchup, especially in the pass game. The Eagles have the top-ranked offensive line in football. I expect Philadelphia to be able to play their style of game against the Chiefs. That means Jalen Hurts throwing the ball downfield to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and finding Dallas Goedert in the seam or underneath. It also means pounding the rock no matter who gets the carries. Hurts led the league in quarterback rushing scores this season. He makes a great play even at a game-high $11,200 ($16,800 as captain).

While I am going to include him on my showdown roster, I actually like one of his receivers as my captain. You’re paying a lot less for either Brown ($9,200) or Smith ($8,600), with the possibility of outscoring Hurts anyway. Hurts failed to score a rushing touchdown in six of the games in which he played this season. Of those six games, either Brown, Smith, or both outscored him in four. You’re looking to buck the system, so take a big swing and use Brown or Smith in that all-important captain slot. The money you save could still get you one of the quarterbacks on your team.

Other DFS Plays I Like

I may be Dallas Goedert’s biggest fantasy fan. Love him on my teams, and he’s got a good matchup, but he’s still a tight end not named Travis Kelce, which means he’s a wildcard at best. At $6,400, he’ll also cost you more than every available wideout except his afore-mentioned teammates. I’m leaving him benched. I’m also not big on Miles Sanders at a position-high $7,800. It’s not that I don’t think he could score, it’s just that the Eagles haven’t needed him to have big games to still execute in the run game.

I’m actually taking both of his backups in my lineup. Kenneth Gainwell ($5,000) has five postseason targets to just one for Sanders. Gainwell has just two fewer rush attempts, but has outgained Sanders on the ground by 28 yards. And Boston Scott ($3,000) has kifed a short redzone score in each of the Eagles’ playoff contests. He’s really the only option at that price point.

If you really want to try and read the tea leaves and include a kicker or DST, be my guest. I’m not, but it is one way to make your lineup stand out. I like Philadelphia ($3,600) over Kansas City ($3,400) at DST. I have Harrison Butker ($4,000) outscoring Jake Elliott ($4,200) in my game score prediction, and he’s the cheaper play.

Super Bowl LVII Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Chiefs (-1.5)

Over/Under: 51.5

Notable Props: DeVonta Smith receptions (5.4); Miles Sanders rushing yards (40.6); A.J. Brown receiving yards (62.6); Patrick Mahomes passing yards (308.5); Isiah Pacheco receptions (1.6); Travis Kelce receptions (6.2)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week, including this Sunday at 11:00 am EST, as we preview Super Bowl LVII!