Many people lazily look at fantasy finishes to determine how to value a player. However, there can be many factors at play that lead to fantasy numbers. The two key ones are talent and situation. Of course, you’d love to have a player who is super-talented in a great situation, but such players aren’t common. A common question to consider, especially in dynasty leagues, is what is more important: talent or situation?

Talent First

I would argue that talent is the most important. Firstly, the situation changes more easily than talent. Secondly, talent secures a floor. Talented players demand usage, which should give them a baseline of fantasy points. An example of this is with D.J. Moore. He’s been one of my favourite guys in dynasty leagues for years because I believed in the talent. Despite being in horrible situations, he’s always been a startable fantasy WR2. Now that he’s in a better (but still not great) situation, he’s a WR1. On the other hand, on the same team, people loved what Justin Fields was doing last season, but I didn’t believe in the talent. Now that others are seeing that too, his dynasty value has dropped significantly.

If you aren’t a talent scout yourself, you can look at pre-draft analysis, draft capital, contracts, and expert opinions to help you to gauge player talent.

Situation Next

In redraft leagues, situations can override talent because situations can last for the entire season. We saw how much of a hit Ja’Marr Chase when Joe Burrow was hurt. We’ve also seen how RBs who are J.A.G.s with the right situations can dominate for fantasy like with Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson. Neither of these backs are active on NFL rosters right now.

Things to consider with situation:

• A high-scoring, fast-paced offence usually helps
• A great offensive line helps
• Some coaches are more run-heavy while others are more pass-happy
• A great QB significantly helps WRs
• Rushing QBs hurt RB volume
• QBs who like to dump off help RBs and TEs
• Target and carry competition can hinder opportunities
• Injuries can affect the factors above

Wrap-Up

When analyzing players for fantasy, talent and situation need to be considered. When debating between talent or situation, it can depend on when and how likely the situation is to change.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me on Twitter.