Many people in the fantasy football community only look at a player’s total fantasy points at the end of the season and use that to judge how talented a player is. Though there is a correlation between talent and fantasy points, it overlooks situations and injuries. D.J. Moore is one of the most talented WRs in the league, but due to 5 years of being on one of the worst organizations in the league, he has never been better than a WR2 for fantasy. I stuck with him in my dynasty leagues because I believed in the talent and he showed it off this year. This is an example of why I value talent over situation.

History

D.J. Moore has had some of the worst QBs throwing to him throughout his career in Carolina. He had Cam Newton nearing the end of his career, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield in the middle of that part of his career where he was on 4 different teams within a couple of years. Justin Fields isn’t a great QB. He arguably isn’t even good at the NFL level. But he after showing some improvement in his third year, he isn’t one of the worst anymore.

Talent Over Situation

Situations are fluid. Some can have some permanence and that does need to be taken into account, but ultimately, situation is more likely to change that talent.

Wrap-Up

This article is about valuing talent over situation. To be clear, that does not mean you should ignore the situation. An example of this is that Bryce Young was on average the QB43 this season, putting up just 10.4 fantasy points per game. In talent, I do think he’s closer to the QB20 than the QB43. However, I don’t see his situation getting much better any time in the next couple of years on that historically poorly run organization with a bottom offensive line, lack of weapons, and no first-round pick this year. With D.J. Moore, because there wasn’t that same long-term pessimism with the Panthers with D.J. Moore, I had more misplaced hope.

Ironically, I also have some pessimism about the future of D.J. Moore’s situation. They could stick with Justin Fields, who I consider a sub-par passer and draft Marvin Harrison Jr who could add a lot of target competition. So though I do believe in D.J. Moore’s talent, I may be open to selling him with that potentially unfortunate situation looming. That being said, hopefully, they do the right thing and draft Caleb Williams.

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