Tuesday, December 24, 2024

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TE Premium Mock: Billy’s Breakdown

Welcome to the latest edition of Mock Draft Mania brought to you by Belly Up Fantasy! Slotted at the fifth overall pick in this 10 team TE Premium mock draft, I am concentrating on drafting RB heavy. In the third round, there is typically a back-end WR from that top group, someone that is an acceptable WR1 for your weekly starting lineup. In my case, I am usually comfortable with the selection at the WR position with my third choice. I will preface this breakdown by saying I am not completely satisfied with my execution. I’ll share a few positions I would have liked to go a different route as the draft played out.  Here is my TE Premium (mock) starting lineup:

We will start: 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 2Flex, 1TE

QB: Dak Prescott, 8.06

Dak Prescott On Fishing and Finding the Most Authentic Food in ...
Dak was the #2 overall fantasy QB in 2019 and the Cowboys added more weapons for 2020.

At the helm will be Dallas Cowboys‘ QB Dak Prescott, 2019’s number two overall fantasy quarterback. I was able to select Dak in the middle of the eighth round, an incredible value at this juncture. There had been five quarterbacks drafted before turning in my selection. No QBs had been selected since the sixth round – Russell Wilson (6.01) and Deshaun Watson (6.10). Being the sixth QB off the board is par for my rankings (QB5), yet a bit lower than our team at Belly Up Fantasy consensus ranking of QB3. Adding an elite fantasy passer in the back half of the draft is an absolute steal and I was excited for him to still be on the board at my eighth-round pick. With a quarterback of this caliber, we can ignore the QB position for a while.

Backup QB: Sam Darnold, 14.06

With my last pick in the draft, I elected to snag my QB2. Sam Darnold is my 2020 breakout candidate at QB. Leading the New York Jets to six wins in their final eight contests, I am bullish on his opportunity for a serious production increase. I am more than satisfied with him as my backup QB. Stay tuned for Belly Up Fantasy analyst’s QB Breakout article, where you can read more about my thoughts on Darnold’s potential this season.

RBs: Dalvin Cook, 1.05, Josh Jacobs, 2.06

Josh Jacobs makes history in NFL debut with Raiders, does ...
Las Vegas Raiders’ RB Josh Jacobs was RB21 in 2019 PPR formats.

The running back position will forever be my priority in re-draft leagues. The top four selections went as planned as far as my selection was concerned, so at the fifth overall pick, I added RB Dalvin Cook. If you’re following us @Bellyupfantasy, you saw our own MD’s Fantasy Football Show reported on twitter, @bellyupmdffshow, that the Vikings are prioritizing Cook’s extension before the team reports for training camp. This alleviates any (small) concern I had about his availability for the season’s start and my choice to not draft his handcuffs in Mattison and Boone. This is a position I would like to use a lifeline and draft either Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry. I do have a formidable tandem in Cook and Jacobs, however, this group feels like more of a low-end RB1 grade, not quite the juggernaut a top-five pick should yield. 

Josh Jacobs was the NFL’s eighth leading rusher as a rookie in 2019 and finished as RB21 in PPR formats. His 7 rushing TDs were sporadic and he only saw 27 total targets in the passing game. Real PPR upside is a bit limited if the Raiders don’t use Jacobs more in the passing game in his sophomore campaign. I passed on Aaron Jones here because I have been landing him often in mocks, a move I wouldn’t make if I were building a real roster.

RB Depth/Flex Options: David Johnson, 5.05, Kareem Hunt, 7.05, and Boston Scott, 13.05

After selecting WRs in the third and fourth rounds, I fortified my RB depth. I drafted newly acquired Texans’ RB David Johnson in the fifth round and added Kareem Hunt in the seventh. Both of these guys have RB1 capability and upside for the 2020 season. Johnson will undoubtedly be the featured back in Houston, Hunt will assume his 3rd-down-back role in Cleveland, a role that yielded 44 targets in only 8 games. Hunt has also been working as the Browns’ slot receiver in certain packages, which is intriguing, to say the least with his skill set. Boston Scott is currently the Eagles’ back up RB. If Miles Sanders were to miss any time, Scott would catapult into the RB1 discussion. Johnson and Hunt are fantastic weekly flex starter options. I couldn’t be happier with the depth I acquired, and specifically these particular RBs to have on my roster.

WR: Mike Evans, 3.05 Calvin Ridley, 4.06

Atlanta Falcons' Calvin Ridley has vehicle stolen at gas station ...
WR Calvin Ridley takes over the #2 role in the Falcon’s offense heading into his 3rd season.

With my starting running back slots being filled with my initial two selections, I needed to get some receivers added to my roster and fast. I was watching the WR pool get whacked on the picks leading up to my third-round selection where I was able to add Buccaneers’, WR Mike Evans. Evans is my number six ranked player at the WR position. I am extremely satisfied with the opening few rounds of this mock draft. In the fourth round, I wanted to get my other starting WR locked up, I selected Falcons’ WR Calvin Ridley. A popular breakout candidate, Ridley is my WR24, slightly higher than our Belly Up Consensus Rankings.

In my opinion, this was my biggest (mock) draft blunder. Other players available at this position were: Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp. All of which I have ranked higher than Ridley, a few much higher, and any of which I would have preferred to lean on each week over Ridley. Hopefully, this is his breakout campaign for my roster’s sake.

WR depth/Flex options: Beckham Jr., 6.06, Sanders, 9.05, Fuller, 11.05

Later I added Odell Beckham Jr. with my sixth selection who may end up starting as my WR2. As much upside as any WR in the NFL, Beckham needs to produce at a much higher rate than in 2019. I look for a bounce-back season with Mayfield, who is expected to make strides.

Emmanuel Sanders has joined a Saints’ team that has longed for a true starting caliber WR opposite Michael Thomas, and he should fill the void brilliantly. I think Sanders has an opportunity to have his most fantasy-relevant season since playing in Denver with Peyton Manning. If my thoughts prove to be a reality, Sanders will pay huge dividends. In the 11th round, Will Fuller is a steal, if he can stay on the gridiron. Fuller is a simple prospect-when he plays he produces. When he’s hurt, it’s a lengthy situation to monitor. Fuller hasn’t played more than 11 games since his rookie year in 2016, playing only 11 games in 2019. Big upside for a late-round addition to my WR corps.

TE: Jared Cook, 10.06, Noah Fant, 12.06

Denver Broncos roster review: Tight end Noah Fant - Mile High Report
TE Noah Fant looks to breakout in 2020 as a focal point in the re-tooled Broncos’ offense.

As my roster sits, I would be streaming both of these TEs based on their weekly matchups. Saints’ TE Jared Cook ended 2019 as the seventh overall TE in fantasy. As a more consistent option at the position, he will be my primary starter in this TE Premium format over Noah Fant. With Fant, I am looking for that breakout to happen. If it does, Cook would be on the trading block in hopes of an upgrade at the WR position. Both of these TEs also have some weekly flex appeal based on their weekly matchups. Although this was a TE Premium draft, waiting until the 10th round to address the TE position worked out in this scenario. With these guys’ upside potential, I am extremely happy with my acquisitions at this stage of the draft. 

You can follow me on Twitter @bwhitt24 for more of my analysis leading into your drafts. If mocks are your thing, you can follow our weekly mock drafts of all formats @Bellyupfantasy. Stay tuned throughout the week as our team analysis articles go live daily. Also, please check out our consensus rankings at Belly Up Fantasy!

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