Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

TE Rankings to win your draft

Now we move on to our last rankings, TE Rankings. In case you missed it, here are the QB, RB, and WR rankings all laid out in style for your enjoyment. But that’s not why you are here, is it? It’s for those ends that are tight. Good news, that’s what these rankings are, and more than any year I can recall, this position has so much value in so many places. Finding it is how you win the draft. Here is your treasure map, happy hunting.

The Tight Ends

Name: Targets-Catches-Receiving Yds-Receiving TDs-Fumbles, (Rushes, Rush Yds, Rush TD) Fantasy Points in 0.5 PPR

Tier 1: The no-brainer beasts

These two guys are crazy good, but crazy expensive. They should form a man band. Gronk too.
  1. Travis Kelce: 121-86-1,157-7:1, (NA)199.7
  2. George Kittle: 121-90-1,099-5:1, (NA)183.9
    Well, here we have the absolute most elite tight ends in these TE rankings. These guys will wind up as top 5 TEs, injuries notwithstanding. They are as sure as sure things get. But you better be ready to pay for them, because they go super early, which causes my exposure to them to be limited. If you don’t want to worry about TE and want to get one of these two early, I get it, but I believe value is to be had later on. But these guys certainly aren’t “wrong” choices.

Tier 2: More attainable studs

Outside his anomalously low TD numbers, Waller exploded in 2019. He will score more this year.
  1. Darren Waller: 108-78-901-5:1, (NA)158.1
  2. Mike Gesicki: 95-66-816-7:1, (NA)155.6
  3. Zach Ertz: 119-76-800-6:1, (NA)153
    Now we get into guys I have more exposure to! Waller is a beast and should continue to be featured. Don’t let his lackluster TD total in 2019 fool you, you want exposure to him, and he is available way later than the top two. But the gem of these tight ends is Gesicki. My exposure is off the charts. He flashed brilliance last year, and I am expecting enormous things from him in 2020. He is the next great TE. Ertz is remarkably consistent, will get so many targets, and is as safe a pick at TE as there is, if he is healthy. I am not overly concerned about his health, at least not as much as I am concerned about that Eagles line health. I have a feeling Gesicki being here in these TE rankings is going to get a few peoples panties in a wad. One easy solution would be to not wear any underwear.

Tier 3: Best of the rest

Cook finds the end zone. The Saints score a bunch. Cook will get some of those scores.
  1. Jared Cook: 71-47-715-6:1, (NA)130
  2. Mark Andrews: 79-51-633-6:0, (NA)124.8
  3. T.J. Hockenson: 89-54638-5:0, (NA)120.8
  4. Hunter Henry: 85-57-689-4:1, (NA)120.4
  5. Hayden Hurst: 77-52-619-5:0, (NA)117.9
  6. Dawson Knox: 66-45-632-5:0, (2-21-0)117.8
  7. Rob Gronkowski: 78-49-629-5:0, (NA)117.4
  8. Evan Engram: 82-52-579-5:0, 2-19-0)115.8
  9. Noah Fant: 72-44-601-4:1, (4-47-1)115.8
  10. Jonnu Smith: 64-45-549-5:0, (4-51-0)112.5
  11. Jack Doyle: 76-57-581-4:1, (NA)109.6
  12. Blake Jarwin: 70-52-581-4:1, (NA)107.1
  13. Austin Hooper: 65-46-540-5:0, (NA)107
  14. Dallas Goedert: 73-48-531-5:1, (NA)106.1
    So much value lives here. This is how you go TE late and don’t pay for it with poor production. Cook continues to be excellent for the Saints, and with Brees, don’t expect that to change. Andrews could easily finish higher than this, but the Baltimore offense is due regression and they love to run. Hockenson will officially break out in 2020, and with a healthy Stafford, we could be seeing great things. Henry may suffer slightly from QB play, but if he is healthy he will produce regardless. Hurst has a new home, in a situation that loves targeting tight ends in the red zone. Sign me up please and thank you. Knox is my other major breakout candidate. He is available crazy late, and will be starting in an offense that should be fun to watch. His athleticism is a beautiful thing, consistency was his issue last year. Gronk could obliterate these projections. But which Gronk will we see? He is the ultimate risk-reward guy, and he either goes too early or too late in every draft I have done. Engram’s single issue is health, but it’s a big issue. Healthy Engram equals fantasy gold, let’s hope we see healthy Engram. Fant had breakout written all over him prior to Denver adding so much offensive skill talent. Are there enough balls to go around? Smith oozes explosiveness, and in his first year starting, offers the upside I love at his ADP. Doyle should benefit from Rivers and is primed for a solid consistent season. Jarwin may struggle for volume, but defenses will forget about him often. Hooper has a nose for the end zone, but will that translate in Cleveland? Goedert is easily the best second TE in the game, and I am a huge fan of getting him late. If Ertz goes down, Goedert goes way up. The range of these guys is high-end TE1 to mid-rank TE2. You should have a starter before passing this portion of the TE rankings.

Tier 4: Worthwhile upside

Jace gets to be TE1 for Green Bay, and I suspect we are all undervaluing him.
  1. Jace Sternberger: 70-47-532-4:1, (NA)99.7
  2. Chris Herndon: 60-39-488-5:2, (NA)96.3
  3. Gerald Everett: 70-42-495-4:0, (NA)94.5
  4. Greg Olsen: 71-47-521-3:0, (NA)93.6
  5. Eric Ebron: 71-43-481-4:0, (NA)93.6
  6. Irv Smith: 69-49-509-3:1, (NA)92.4
  7. Kyle Rudolph: 59-41-409-5:0, (NA)91.4
  8. Tyler Higbee: 73-45-504-3:0, (NA)90.9
  9. Will Dissly: 51-36-447-3:1, (NA)79.7
  10. Ian Thomas: 56-38-347-3:0, (NA)71.7
  11. Jimmy Graham: 61-32-368-3:0, (NA)70.8
    The best part about these guys is you can wait forever to get most of them, and they still offer value worth smiling about. Sternberger’s situation is fantastic, and if he can translate his college production to the pros in year two, he could be a steal of the draft. Herndon offers a similar upside, albeit in Adam Gase’s shadow. That shadow feeds off fantasy production, and cannot be trusted. Having Higbee this low is gonna bring out the trolls, but I am ready to pay the toll, so they can get their rolls. I prefer Everett, considering he has outperformed Higbee up to this point in their careers. However neither excite without an injury to the other. Olsen and Dissly are similar, Seattle is deep at TE and those receivers will demand targets. Volume will be a concern without injuries opening up more opportunities. Ebron is a red zone threat, but Claypool may eat into that, and there is a lot of talent around him. Smith and Rudolph are similar to the tandems listed earlier, although Rudolph is more TD dependant. Their upsides are capped. Thomas is the fourth-best option, at best, in this offense. Volume concerns rear their ugly head here also. The artist formerly known as Jimmy Graham is on his last legs, but improved QB play for Chicago could give him one last hurrah before he rides off into a red sunset. These guys are risky, but snagging them late as depth could pay off later.

Tier 5: Risky, yet intriguing possibilities

They say a picture is worth a thousand ripped muscles. They were correct. I am blaming Zeke for this.
  1. David Njoku:50-29-329-3:0, (NA )65.4
  2. O.J. Howard: 43-27-324-3:1, (NA)62.9
  3. C.J. Uzomah: 38-29-290-3:1, (NA)60.5
  4. Tyler Eifert: 48-30-328-2:0, (NA)59.8
  5. Logan Thomas: 38-25-259-3:0, (NA)56.4
  6. Kaden Smith: 49-33-298-2:2, (NA)56.3
  7. Maxx Williams: 35-26-311-2:0, (NA)56.1
  8. Nick Boyle: 49-24-253-3:0, (NA)55.3
  9. Cole Kmet: 38-25-277-2:0, (NA)52.2
  10. Trey Burton: 40-25-269-2:0, (NA)51.4
    Oh, Njoku, why did Hooper have to rain on your parade? One injury, and this guy skyrockets up this TE rankings list like Elon Musk designed him. Howard feels low after hearing stuff out of Bucs camp. Two TE sets aren’t exactly outside Brady’s repertoire. Uzomah lacks a ceiling to be excited about, but he is starting. Eifert has boom-bust potential, but not enough to reach for him. Logan Thomas is someone I am looking at. If he can secure that starting gig, he has wicked potential and might see enough targets to really shine. Kaden Smith is a name to remember, because Engram has yet to stay healthy, and Smith flashed nicely last year. I actually have a ton of exposure. Maxx Williams is going undrafted but I suspect because of his elite blocking ability he is on the field more often than not. Boyle is listed as the second TE in Baltimore. Andrews was that last year. Just saying, it could happen. Kmet is a year away I think, but should Graham deteriorate faster than expected, he could see enough volume to matter. And Burton has teased us in the past, but with Rivers at QB, he could be a value guy to target in the last round, or keep an eye on with waivers. Draft these guys at your own risk, but know each could conceivably contribute to your team at some point.

The TE Rankings are in, which concludes my rankings series. I hope they help you in your draft, and I welcome the feedback(unless you are a Higbee truther!). Thanks for reading, have fun drafting, and I look forward to hearing from you all. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy sports needs. Be sure to check out our consensus rankings to see where everyone at Belly Up Fantasy has these guys.