As Pat McAffee says, “Situations are Situational”. For NFL rookies, the situation they land in can change everything. It can truly steer the course of their career. It is a commonly held belief that David Carr wouldn’t have busted if he wouldn’t have been killed behind the Texans’ offensive line to start his career. The importance of situations is especially true for non-premier talent. Any team that drafts Travis Etienne, for example, will have a plan in place to get him a lot of touches early and often. A mid-round running back? Not as much. This is why it’s important to look at the situations rookie running backs may land in for Dynasty purposes.

Situations are situational @OfficialAJHawk #PatMcAfeeShowLIVE pic.twitter.com/cpu1UOQ1W7

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) February 8, 2021

For players who are picked in the middle of the draft and don’t demand carries because of their cost, a situation that allows them to get on the field early and be successful can change their life. More importantly to you, of course, is that it can also win you a championship in your dynasty league. Teams and fantasy managers who get value from players they drafted in the second, third, or fourth round of their annual rookie drafts are put in a great position to succeed. This article aims to shine a light on NFL teams whose situation is one that a mid-round running back could come in and win you a fantasy championship in either the short or long term.

The Houston Texans

It has been a long time since you’ve seen the Texans on top of a list, hasn’t it? The franchise may be a dumpster fire with one of the best players in the franchise’s history trying leave, but it’s a great spot for a rookie running back. Since I’ve mentioned him, I’ll start with Deshaun Watson. If Watson stays, he will be the focal point of the offense. If he leaves, well, someone will need to lead the offense. Unless Watson is traded for another franchise Quarterback, his leaving will likely make the team a run-heavy one. In either case, this is a great situation for a rookie running back.

Deshaun Watson isn’t the biggest factor here, though, and he’s certainly not the most surprising. According to ESPN Analytics’ data, the Houston Texans were fifth in the NFL in run blocking win rate in 2020. In other words, the offensive line was fantastic at run blocking. This is great news for any back but especially one without crazy athletic traits.

Finally, there’s the competition. David Johnson and Duke Johnson are the only two running backs the Texans have on the roster that had any significant amount of touches in 2020. David Johnson is a 29-year old running back with over 900 career carries and a troubling injury history. Duke Johnson will turn 28 during the 2021 season and has only had over 100 carries one time in his career. To top it all off, both backs will be free agents after the 2021 season.

All of these factors combine to make the Texans my favorite landing spot for a rookie running back in regards to Dynasty leagues. If they select a running back, said back will likely have an early role in a committee with the two Johnsons with the chance to get a lot of carries if David Johnson is hurt. If they have any amount of success in their rookie year, they will likely be the favorite to get the starting job in 2022.

The Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons give the Texans a run for their money for the top spot. The difference, to me, is that the Falcons have significantly worse run blocking. According to the same ESPN analysis as earlier, the Falcons run blocking win rate was just 28th in the NFL. That’s a big fall off from the Texans in that regard, and what makes the Falcons less beginner-friendly.

What makes the Falcons a contender for the top spot is the sheer volume of carries available. Ito Smith is the only running back with a significant amount of 2020 carries left with the team. Over the last two seasons, Smith has less than 100 carries. A rookie running back has a very good chance to take over as the immediate and long-term starter in Atlanta.

Another factor that will benefit rookie running backs in Atlanta is Head Coach Arthur Smith. The Falcons hired Arthur Smith just over a month ago after two successful seasons with the Tennessee Titans. The Titans, of course, had a great run game with Smith at the helm. In both years that Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Titans, Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing yards.

There’s a good chance that a rookie running back starts for the Falcons in 2021 at some point. Their success will be largely up to their individual talent unless the Falcons build upon their offensive line, but the volume of touches will make them relevant in fantasy. A rookie starting running back on the Falcons could easily be a championship winner in 2021.

The Detroit Lions

Whichever running back lands with the Lions better be ready to bite some knee caps. In all seriousness, Dan Campbell plays a part in the Lions ranking here. While it’s easy to poke fun at his presser, the former NFL Tight End might know a thing or two about the run game. During his stint for 12 games as the interim head coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2015, we saw evidence of this. In the four games Joe Philbin coached, starting running back Lamar Miller averaged 3.54 yards per carry and just over 30 yards per game. Once Campbell took over, those numbers rose significantly.

What about D’Andre Swift? He played well in 2020 and will certainly keep any new back to the team from being a bell-cow back. The thought process is that Swift would be a perfect committee mate for a downhill back. This, of course, is how he was used last season with Adrian Peterson. With Peterson likely moving on, a back to fill his role could add real value. Someone like Rhamondre Stevenson or Javonte Williams could excel early here, especially if Dan Campbell decides to pound the ball in at the goal line. Kerryon Johnson is still on the Lions in 2021, but both his usage and efficiency has fallen off since his rookie year enough that I don’t think he will impact a rookie too much.

The Lions were middle of the road in regards to run blocking in 2020. Their offensive line graded out as 14th in the league in run blocking win rate according to the earlier cited ESPN analysis. This, combined with being a fresh runner given the committee nature of this situation, should bode well for young backs.

The Lions offer a high-end committee position for a rookie downhill running back due to their coaching and their offensive line. While the receiving back/scatback role is filled, a high-usage inside runner who steals touchdowns has fantasy value, especially in standard scoring.

The New York Jets

The Jets will be a great spot for mid-round rookies for a lot of positions in the near future. This is due almost entirely to the lack of competition on the roster. La’Mical Perine and Ty Johnson are the only backs on the roster as of now that have had NFL snaps. Pete Guerriero is also on the roster, though. Ty Johnson played some solid ball towards the end of the season, but he shouldn’t stop the Jets from upgrading the position. I don’t expect the other two backs to be factors much, if at all.

With Robert Saleh coming to the Jets, San Francisco 49ers co-worker Mike LaFleur has been named the offensive coordinator. I love him as the offensive coordinator, especially from a running back perspective. Kyle Shanahan’s run play design has been among the best in the NFL during his tenure with the 49ers. Mike LaFleur may have been a passing game specialist, but I’m hoping that he has picked up some knowledge from Shanahan regarding the run game. If not, maybe he’ll learn from his brother. Mike LaFleur is the younger brother of Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur, who has done well with Aaron Jones and the Packers run game.

With a poor supporting cast and a 2020 run-blocking win rate of just 67-percent, which was 30th in the league per ESPN, the situation isn’t perfect. That being said, this will be a young team ,

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers may have a great running back already and they may be a team that will rely on the pass, but I love the prospect of another back coming to LA. Austin Ekeler has been an incredibly efficient running back throughout his career, especially as a receiver. That being said, the Chargers have not let him be as a bellcow back. Whether due to his size or skillset, this presents an opportunity for another back in LA to have success.

The Chargers just drafted a mid-round running back in 2020 in Joshua Kelley. Kelley, however, ran for just 3.2 yards per carry in 2020. The team may opt to keep him as the running mate to Ekeler in 2021, but he isn’t unbeatable. A rookie won’t get the job for free, but they should have a fair shake at the job. Justin Jackson is another back on the roster who could compete for carries, but they’ve yet to commit to him either.

A big reason I think that a committee makes sense for the Chargers is because of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. During Lombardi’s tenure with the Saints, there have almost always been two productive running backs. Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara have coexisted. Reggie Bush and Mark Ingram coexisted. Because of this, I think there’s a good chance Ekeler will have a productive running mate.

The Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson is an unrestricted free agent and will turn 27 during the 2021 NFL season. The Seahawks may be forced to let him walk depending on his asking price, opening up a large amount of carries. The backs currently on the Seahawks roster are Rashaad Penny, Deejay Dallas, Travis Homer, and Patrick Carr. They combined for less than 100 total carries in 2020, so I don’t think that any of them will prevent the team from adding talent at the position.

I’m hearing Russell Wilson’s camp has grown increasingly frustrated by the Seahawks inability to protect the 8 time Pro Bowler. He has been sacked 394 times in 9 seasons. This situation warrants serious monitoring.

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) February 9, 2021

It was reported earlier this month that Russell Wilson was frustrated with his offensive line’s performance. While they may be struggling to give their Quarterback time, they are average in the run blocking win rate. ESPN Analytics ranked them at 16 in regards to the aforementioned stat. The line isn’t perfect, but they can run block.

Pete Carrol also said earlier this year that he wants his team to run more. If a rookie running back becomes the starter in Seattle and the team’s head coach gets their way, this could be a championship winning situation for a cheap running back. I would value almost any rookie back that lands here highly, especially if neither of Carson or Carlos Hyde re-signs with the team.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

The position of the Pittsburgh Steelers on this list is dependent on whether or not James Conner re-signs. With Conner on the team, the Steelers will likely have an availability for a committee with Conner. Without him, well, the sky is the limit. Conner has never played a 16-game season. Because of this, it is very necessary that the Steelers have another quality back on the roster. That’s why the team drafted Benny Snell in 2019, but Snell has struggled thus far. So far, his career yards per carry is just 3.6. They also drafted Anthony McFarland this past year, but he ran the ball just 33 times without a ton of success. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team add another mid-round back.

The Steelers make the list because of the lack of a starting caliber back on the roster as of my writing, but there will be competition to take the job or even make the roster. The potential here is sky high, though, and worth a late-round draft pick in a dynasty rookie draft if the Steelers indeed select a rookie. If Ben Roethlesburger returns in 2021, a running back with a strong receiving presence could especially excel. Their offense with him relied on a large quantity of short passes in 2020, and a good receiving back could benefit from that. This, once again, is especially true if James Conner does not return. It is worth mentioning that the Steelers run blocking was not great, ranking 24th in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills

The state of the Bills running back room is interesting. They have two or three competitive depth/committee guys, but no feature back. Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and Antonio Williams all have shined at points throughout their short careers. None have stepped up to be a consistent starter. With the Bills being a team in contention, this is a position they may look to upgrade at. This is a riskier running back room to invest in due to competition, but if a rookie became the starter they would be valuable.

The Bills were not great at run blocking in 2020, ranking 29th in the NFL in run block win rate. With Josh Allen and a strong receiver group, a lot of pressure will be taken off of the run game. This means that teams will not likely sell out on the run very often. Whoever the starting running back for the Bills is in 2021, they probably won’t see many full boxes.

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