Family Spreadwinner Concept

Week 11 of the NFL is upon us, and it has offered up the perfect opportunity to introduce my new betting series, The Family Spreadwinner. The concept behind this game is to spread out $50 in total bets across five different games in an NFL week. You can put any amount of your $50 on each bet, as long as the total wagered for all five bets equals exactly $50. The five bets you have to place will each need to fit into the following categories. You’ll place one bet on a moneyline, a spread, an over/under, a two-leg parlay, and three or more leg parlay.

Your “Betting Family”

This game offers a great opportunity to make some big money over the weekend and compete with your friends. The Family Spreadwinner is a game best enjoyed when played with friends known as your “betting family”. The key is to find the best bets of the week in each category and strategically place your wagers across the five bets. The hope is that you can win the most money that week among your betting family. When played with friends, you can all track how much you win on your bets. Then the individual who ends the week with the highest total winnings, wins that week.

In a fantasy football-style format, you will create a lineup of bets, rather than players. If all members of your betting family pay into a pool, that pool money can be given to the league champion, or Family Spreadwinner, at season’s end. While you will obviously pocket whatever dollar amounts your bets win over the season, you and your “betting family” can also compete for that prize throughout the season. The Family Spreadwinner will be the player who wins the most weeks throughout the season. If a tie occurs for most weekly wins, then the winner of the most dollars for the season will win.

This game will not only offer you the typical excitement of betting on the NFL weekend. It will also add the fun of competing with your betting friends in a structured format. The best part is that the format is flexible. You can adapt the weekly wager amount or required bets to fit the desires of you and your betting family. The possibilities are endless, but what I do know is that you’ll have fun, you’ll get to scratch that competitive itch, and you’ll hopefully win some money.

Family Spreadwinner Bet: CIN Moneyline

So now that we’ve established the concept of The Family Spreadwinner, I’m going to share my picks for Week 11. For my moneyline bet, I am taking the Bengals to beat Washington. The line for Bengals moneyline on Draftkings Sportsbook is currently at +106. My strategy for placing the moneyline bet is always to find my favorite underdog of the week. The Bengals have looked better under rookie QB Joe Burrow the season, even if their two wins don’t show it. They only have two losses by more than one score, and those came against elite divisional rivals in Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Furthermore, they enter this game as a road underdog of only 1.5 points. Well, betting road underdogs of six points or less has been one of the most lucrative betting trends so far in 2020. Teams in that category have covered 66 percent of the time this season. Now I am not betting on them to cover, but with only a 1.5 point spread, I might as well be. And let’s be honest, Washington is in the NFC East. So in other words, they are bad. I expect Joe Burrow to out-duel Alex Smith easily this weekend. Therefore, I’m placing $20 of my $50 on the Cincinnati moneyline. If this bet hits, it will payout $41.20.

Family Spreadwinner Bet: MIA -3.5

This one hurts for me to write. As a lifelong Broncos fan, it hurts at my core to bet against my beloved team. However, in The Family Spreadwinner, there’s no room for my feelings. It’s about winning the dollar bills. And, quite frankly, this spread is too small for me to pass up. The Dolphins have been playing some of the best football in the NFL lately, and the Broncos well… have not. However, Drew Lock did set a new career-high last week before getting knocked out with a rib injury, throwing 4 interceptions in a single game. However, the mayor of pick city may not be available in this game because of the aforementioned rib injury. Good news? Probably not because Denver’s backup QBs are Brett Rypien and Jeff Driskel, which are hardly upgrades.

So while the Broncos offense has been battling with the Bears, Cowboys, and Jets for worst in the league, the Dolphins have been battling for league’s best defense. In fact, they’ve had at least one turnover in every game since Week 1. That bodes well for them heading into a matchup with one of the most turnover prone teams playing on Sundays. In addition, Miami is now 3-0 since Tua took over at QB, and he is looking to be the first QB to go 4-0 to start his career since Big Ben Roethlisberger. That extra motivation should carry them to at LEAST a touchdown win over Denver. The odds on Draftkings Sportsbook for Miami -3.5 is -110. I will place $10 on this bet, so if it hits, it will payout $19.10.

Family Spreadwinner Bet: Over 50 (NO vs. ATL)

The first rule of betting football in 2020? Never bet the under. In a year where fan noise doesn’t affect play calling, and defenses missed preseason reps, NFL offenses have been scoring at historically high rates. The Saints and Falcons are no exception to that rule as the Saints have hit the over 7 of 9 times, while Atlanta has hit the over 5 of 9 times. This game is also going to be played inside a dome, so the November weather won’t impact the scoring. In addition, the Saints are averaging 30.1 PPG, and the Falcons are averaging 27.0 PPG. With the over listed at 50 points, the team averages alone would cover by over a touchdown.

Now some people may be worried about the effect Jameis Winston will have on this game, as he’s slated to start for the injured Drew Brees. However, I believe Jameis Winston’s style will lead to higher scoring. First, the Falcons have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Moving the ball on them hasn’t been a challenge this year, so I don’t see a Sean Payton offense finding any less success. Furthermore, Jameis just came off of a season where he threw over 5000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Passing production was not his issue, turnovers were. Well if he reverts back to his turnover ways, that will likely set Atlanta up to score more points, helping the over to hit as well.

With Atlanta’s offense playing well under interim Head Coach Raheem Morris, and the Saint’s offense likely to rack up points against a poor Atlanta secondary, I expect this game to go well over 50 points. I am putting $10 on this bet which Draftkings Sportsbook has listed at -110. If it hits, the payout will be $19.10.

Family Spreadwinner Bet: KC -8/NYJ +9

For my 2-leg parlay, I want to pair the Chiefs -8 with the Jets +9. First, I think that the Chiefs are going to win their game in decisive fashion. The lone blemish on their record currently came against Gruden’s Raiders in Week 5. In a year after winning the Super Bowl, it can be tough to find motivation. Well after their Week 5 win over Kansas City, the Raiders team bus reportedly took victory laps around Arrowhead Stadium. If avenging your lone loss wasn’t enough motivation, those laps will undoubtedly fuel the fire under Kansas City. I predict Kansas City, coming off of a bye, will come out hot early and pile points onto Las Vegas for a two-score win.

For the second leg of this parlay, I am taking the Jets +9 over the Chargers. Yes, I am saying I will bet on the Jets. No I haven’t gone senile (at least I don’t think). Look, it’s been proven time and time again that teams play better off a bye week. Well the Jets are coming off of a bye, while the Chargers are coming off of a brutal matchup with the Dolphins. That means the Jets have now had two weeks to prepare for a 2-win Chargers team who is notorious for blowing games. And the Chargers probably haven’t given this game a second thought as it’s sandwiched between tough games against Miami and Buffalo. This is your classic trap game. A rookie QB battling against a team off of a bye that gets no respect. I like the Jets to cover nine points in a close game.

Parlaying these two spreads together offers a line of +274 on Draftkings Sportsbook. I will bet $8 on this parlay. If it hits it will payout $29.95.

Family Spreadwinner Bet: 3+Leg Parlay

For the final bet in The Family Spreadwinner game for Week 11, I am opting to create a five-leg parlay. I feel fairly confident in my picks so far, so I am using this slot as a chance to get a large betting line. For this parlay I am combining LAR +7, MIN -3, JAX +15, CLE ML, and CAR +1.5. I am buying points on three spreads in an effort to buy myself some insurance that the bet hits. In a larger parlay such as this one, I always think it’s a good strategy to buy insurance on each leg, since the parlaying of the bets increases the line for you.

LAR +7

First, I’m taking the Rams +7 against Tampa Bay. Like I said before, road underdogs of under 6 points have been the best bets so far this year. Well, the Rams are currently listed as four-point underdogs at Tampa Bay on Monday. With Tampa’s tendency to be hot and cold in 2020, and the Rams elite defense coming to town, I like the Rams. I am buying three extra points just to cover a full touchdown by taking the Rams +7.

MIN -3

Second, I’m taking the Vikings -3 against Dallas. Dallas is bad at football. That’s about as much analysis as I needed to roll with the Vikes. However, if you would like more reasoning, take a look at the matchups. The Vikings offense just performed well against an elite Chicago defense on Monday, so logic would dictate that they can handle maybe the league’s worst defense in Dallas. Thielen and Jefferson will likely be able to feast on the Cowboys weak secondary, as long as Dalvin Cook promises to share. And if you’re looking for Zeke to show up at all in this one, I’d check the tattoo removal clinic. He doesn’t want to be fed anymore. I’m still buying 4 points to bring this line to MIN -3 in case Andy Dalton can make it a field goal game.

JAX +15

The 9-0 Steelers face off with the 1-8 Jaguars. AFC Championship game preview? Probably not, but it may not be as lopsided as one may think. The Steelers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. Just look back to their matchup with Dallas where they only won by 5 points. There is no doubt in my mind that Pittsburgh wins this game, but I actually think Jacksonville can keep it close. Not only does Pittsburgh like to stay close against teams they should blowout, but Jacksonville has actually looked okay with Jake Luton. They’re 0-2 since he took over at QB, but he has put up back-to-back competitive games against Green Bay and Houston. I don’t see Pittsburgh winning by over 2 touchdowns. Therefore, I am buying 4.5 points to get Jacksonville at +15.

CLE ML

There aren’t many situations where I would pick an NFC East team to win out of their division. This game is no exception. The Eagles have looked bad lately, and they still aren’t completely healthy. The Browns haven’t been amazing either, but they certainly show more promise than Philadelphia. I don’t see much offensive production coming out of Philly in this game. First off, one of the league’s best pass rushers in Myles Garrett is set to terrorize Wentz all game with nothing but the decimated Philly O-line to protect him. Second, the game is in Cleveland in November, and the weather won’t be pretty. That leans to me taking Cleveland as they have probably the best two-headed rushing attack in the NFL with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Dominating the line of scrimmage in bad weather often equals wins. Therefore, I like the Cleveland moneyline.

CAR +1.5

Finally, the last leg of my parlay is Carolina +1.5 over Detroit. I was waiting to make a pick on this game until we knew the status of QB Teddy Bridgewater. However, it is looking like he will play. That 1.5 point spread is a nice insurance as well in case he doesn’t go. However, regardless of the QB, I think Carolina’s offensive weapons will be too much for Detroit’s porous secondary. Basically every offense has had success through the air against this unit. And Carolina has a special group of weapons this season. Even without McCaffrey, they have been a productive group. Mike Davis, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, and DJ Moore have all shown bursts of productivity. When a group that dynamic plays a bad secondary, I like their chances because of the myriad of ways they can move the ball. Therefore, Carolina +1.5 is the play here.

Parlay Payout

For the 5-leg parlay outlined above, I still have $2 of my $50 remaining to place on this bet. The odds on Draftkings Sportsbook for this parlay currently sits at +881. Therefore, if it hits, it will payout $19.61

Winning Time

Thank you for reading my first official edition of The Family Spreadwinner. For Week 11, my five bets totaled the $50 amount exactly. The potential total payout across all 5 bets could payout $128.96. This would yield me a profit of $78.96 if all bets hit. I took a fairly conservative approach this week, focusing more on getting bets that I think will win, rather than trying to hit the big payouts. After all, the only money that counts is the money in your bank account. I hope you all enjoyed The Family Spreadwinner and will set up games among your “betting families” for the rest of the season. As always, please bet responsibly. Good luck!

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