There’s a lot of hype around 2023 rookies. But how valuable are those picks really? You can check out my article on 2023 rookie hype, which breaks this down by tier, but I want to look more specifically into the value of 2023 1sts based on history.

I am going to compare these picks to startup rounds in 12-team Superflex drafts. How I’ll be doing this is by comparing the projected 2023 rookies to how past rookies were valued. I will be using Fantasy Football Calculator to look at past dynasty ADP. I will also be ignoring the time value of draft picks. Essentially, I’ll be projecting where these picks would be taken in a Superflex draft next off-season.

1.01 – Round 1

This might sound crazy. But Saquon Barkley was being taken as the second non-QB off the board before he even played an NFL snap. Bijan Robinson could have a similar type of value. He’s been dominant since his rookie season and backed it up in his sophomore year.

1.02-1.06 – Rounds 2-3

I could see this tier grow beyond just four players. Jahmyr Gibbs should be another stud RB with great hands who could be drafted in the second round, where Breece Hall is being drafted right now. Additionally, Kayshon Boutte and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be prospects at the level of Ja’Marr Chase, who was being drafted as a top 8 WR last year as a rookie despite only playing two seasons in college. Additionally, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud could very possibly be 17-game starters right off the bat. 3 rookie QBs were taken top-15 last year. I think Stroud and Young could go that high next year and I wouldn’t be surprised if other QBs did too.

1.06-1.12 – Rounds 4-6

This draft class is deep. Many are projecting multiple QBs in the first round next year. Names to watch include Will Levis, Tyler Van Dyke, and Anthony Richardson. I can also see about three RBs and four WRs starting week 1. RBs to watch include Zach Evans, Tank Bigsby, and Sean Tucker. WRs to watch include Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Josh Downs. I’d be valuing these players around where Terry McLaurin and Cam Akers are currently being valued. Additionally, Michael Mayer is a TE prospect who could have a rookie impact the way T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram have. You may have noticed I’m talking about ten rookies even though this tier should only have seven. This is why I am also targeting early 2nds.

Wrap-Up

We’re about a year away from the 2023 NFL draft and many things can change between now and then. However, this is still about how I value 2023 first, especially in a rebuild. But remember, this is ignoring the time value of draft picks. Because these picks don’t put up fantasy points this year, you should be able to acquire them for less. Hopefully, this gives you a good idea of how I value 2023 1sts, which is much higher than the 2022 ones.

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