Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs drafted Clyde-Edwards Helaire with their first pick. In fantasy leagues, he became a first-rounder in almost every format and now his ADP puts him as a 3rd or 4th-rounder. What was the mistake? He was being drafted at his ceiling. He was one of the most overhyped players.

I understand you need to take your shot, otherwise you’ll miss out on those breakout players. However, if you acquire too many players at their ceilings, you’ll lose on value, which is especially detrimental in dynasty formats.

Note: my ADP is coming from Sleeper and my 2020 finishes assume half-PPR.

Jonathan Taylor

No running back is safe from Jonathan Taylor. He is going first overall in some drafts, especially dynasty ones. He had a fantastic finish to the 2020-2021 season as the RB6 and is a young running back who is should continue to ascend. So why am I calling him overhyped?

Jonathan Taylor entered the season with significant competition for touches but then that competition (Marlon Mack) went down to injury. That competition may come back this upcoming season. He also had a very easy schedule to end off the season. Finally, his QB situation is drastically changing, which could be an issue for his targets. Side note: if this story sounds familiar, it’s because it’s a popular offseason narrative used for David Montgomery who finished as RB4, but very few are pointing out that this also applies to Jonathan Taylor.

I am not saying he doesn’t have a ceiling that justifies his ADP, but to me, he hasn’t proven it enough to justify such high draft capital, especially when he’s sometimes being drafted above Christian McCaffery, a proven league-winner.

Patrick Mahomes

In real life, I’d easily consider him the best quarterback by far. Whether that has more to do with him or his team may be up for debate, but there’s no denying his dominance. However, when it comes to fantasy, that dominance isn’t there anymore. He used to be a tier above the others, but with the emergence of Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson over the last 2 years, the days of Mahomes having a large tier gap over the competition is gone.

We know Lamar dominated in 2019, and even Jameis Winston was better than Mahomes that year. Last year, Dak was on track to be the QB1 before his injury. Then Murray was on track to be the QB1 before his injury. Then we saw Allen keep up with Mahomes by the end of the season. Mahomes is going in the 2nd round while these other QBs are going in the 4th or 5th round. Even if you don’t subscribe to the don’t-draft-a-QB-early idea, I find no reason to reach for a QB with my 2nd pick when I’ll probably have a plethora of great options with my 4th and 5th.

However, in Superflex formats, the 5 QBs I mentioned have the potential to go top 5 so I have no issues with his ADP of being the 1st or 2nd overall pick.

Kyle Pitts

The rookie TE Kyle Pitts may be the Clyde-Edwards Helaire of 2021 as the most overhyped rookie. Don’t get me wrong, he could totally live up to some people’s expectations of being Julio Jones at TE. However, him finishing outside of a top-12 TE is also totally possible. He’s being drafted ahead of Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson in all formats. I understand why some may be fading Mark Andrews, but drafting him ahead of Hockenson who finished as TE4 and whose outlook looks amazing is crazy to me.

Wrap Up

There are many other candidates for overhyped players that are covered by many other writers like J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift, but I wanted to point out some less covered ones. Hopefully, this article can help you find value in your drafts and trades this season.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles and you can follow me at @liuac.