After Week 13 ended on Tuesday, we have a quick turnaround to begin Week 14. Thursday Night Football will represent a rematch of the snooze fest that was Super Bowl LIII. Following this matchup, one of the many storylines from last season was wondering if Bill Belichick broke the young genius Sean McVay. McVay has done a great job responding to the critics. His Rams team is currently sitting atop the hardest division in the NFL with four weeks remaining. On the contrary, Belichick has struggled without Tom Brady under center.

However, following wins against the Cardinals and Chargers, the Patriots find themselves at .500 with their slim playoff hopes still alive. If they want to stay relevant in the competitive AFC, this is a must win game for the Patriots. Likewise, this game is important for the Rams as well. Winning this will keep them atop the division with three weeks remaining. With the Seahawks expected to get their free win against the Jets, it’s important for the Rams to lock this down. Let’s take a look at what to expect tonight as well as suggest prop bets to examine.

The Good

Patriots

Following a dominant 45-point performance in SoFi Stadium against the Chargers, the Patriots won’t have to travel far on Thursday night. We saw everything clicking for the Patriots in Week 13. The offense had almost 300 total yards, the defense intercepted two Justin Herbert passes, and special teams contributed two touchdowns on a punt return and a blocked field goal at the end of the first half.

This team has faced plenty of questions all year long. It was anybody’s guess how this team would look with an entirely different offense. However, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have done enough with what they have to keep this team in the hunt. As we saw last week, these guys against Anthony Lynn served as a clear coaching mismatch. The same advantage doesn’t apply to McVay. Any Belichick team can be expected to compete with any team, especially in a primetime game.

Rams

Where we sit today, it is really tough to find a hole on this Rams team. Jared Goff has had some big performances when the Rams need him. He has two great wide receivers in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The running back by committee has seemed to have been taken over by rookie Cam Akers, who has a touchdown in three straight games. Finally, this defense, led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, has been performing at a high level all season.

In what appeared to be a make or break season for the Rams following a disappointing season, Sean McVay has done a great job bringing this team back to being relevant in the NFC. This Rams team is 3-1 in primetime games this season, losing only to the 49ers who have owned them the past two seasons. They opened up the season on Sunday Night Football defeating the then-competitive Dallas Cowboys. In two Monday Night games, they handled the Chicago Bears and forced two Tom Brady to throw interceptions in a win down in Tampa. When the lights are the brightest and all eyes are focused on one football game, McVay’s Rams have showed up this season.

The Bad

Patriots

This Patriots team has been able to stay alive despite the poor passing of Cam Newton. Newton, who sports a five touchdown to nine interception ratio, has not looked comfortable throwing the ball all season long. While he has made up for it with his legs, his inability to make throws when needed has cost the Patriots some close games this season. Against a tough Rams defense who will do whatever it takes to keep Cam in the pocket, we will see if he is able to make big throws against the Jalen Ramsey led secondary.

While this defense has forced a turnover in every game except for one, this is not your typical Patriots defense. Dealing with a lot of COVID opt outs and free agents leaving, this defense has struggle to prevent offenses from gaining a lot of yards. Against a Rams offense that has the ability to beat you on the ground or in the air, this defense is going to have to step up to keep the Patriots season alive.

Rams

While we have seen some very good Jared Goff performances this year, we have also seen some very bad games from the former first overall pick. With 14 turnovers this season, Goff and McVay have both acknowledged that ball control needs to be a priority for Goff as the Rams head towards the playoffs. In a matchup against a coach who has game planned for Goff on the highest stage, it will be important for Goff to protect the ball and not give up a possession by being careless with the ball.

As I mentioned earlier, the Rams running back by committee has swayed more towards Cam Akers in recent weeks. He has looked more explosive than Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown. Because of this, McVay needs to stick with Akers to allow for some consistency in the running game. If he sticks with the committee approach and it struggles early, it may force the Rams to rely on Goff’s arm to win the game.

Thursday Night Betting Guide

With this being the only game on, why not make some money off of it? Here are some of the most appealing prop picks as well as my pick for the game. All betting lines can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Props

Cam Newton Under 185.5 Passing Yards (-124)

As mentioned earlier, Newton has struggled to throw the ball all year, to the point where he just isn’t. This season, he has only eclipsed this total three times. In the past two weeks, he hasn’t even topped 100 yards! With Jalen Ramsey in the secondary, expect the football to stay away from his direction with the Patriots forcing the run game as much as possible.

Cooper Kupp Over 5.5 Receptions (-124)

This Rams offense is much more explosive when Cooper Kupp is involved as often as possible. There has only been three games this year where Kupp didn’t record at least five catches, two of which being against the 49ers. Assuming Bill Belichick’s defense prioritizes eliminating the run, expect Goff to rely on his safe slot receiver and get the ball in his hands as often as possible.

Robert Woods Over .5 Touchdowns (+140)

He can beat a defense deep. He is a red zone threat. Heck, McVay might even have him running a couple of end arounds. The fact of the matter is, similar to Kupp, the Rams want the ball in Robert Woods’ hands. With five receiving touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns, Woods is the Rams player with the ball in end zone most often. I would expect this trend to continue on Thursday.

Thursday Night Football Pick

Patriots +5 (-110)

Both coaches and teams have something to prove on Thursday. Belichick and the Patriots are here to prove they are still in playoff contention without Tom Brady around. The Rams and McVay want to make up for their Super Bowl loss and show that they should be expected to contend to be the NFC representative in Tampa come February.

With all that, I expect this to be a close game. If Goff can move the ball on this Patriots defense, they could be in for a long night. However, if Cam Newton and the running game can continue to move the ball and keep the clock running, I think they will ultimately stay in control of this game. Compile that with the fact that the Patriots never left Los Angeles after the Chargers game, they will face less travel fatigue than a team would usually have on a short week with a cross country trip.

With Week 16 having the Thursday game moved to Friday so it can be played on Christmas Day, this is the second to last Thursday Night game this season. It truly feels like just yesterday the Chiefs and Texans were out there on Thursday night in Week 1. Enjoy it while it lasts because before we know it, we will be faced with another offseason with no football.

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