In this article, we will analyze various player props, and fantasy analysis, and provide insights for betting on the upcoming game between the Steelers and Patriots. Pittsburgh is favored at 6 points and an over/under of 30.5 marks the lowest in a decade. Both teams have combined for five games on the over this season, primarily due to backup quarterback play and struggles on offense. Considering these factors, we anticipate a low-scoring game and advise caution when considering player props and fantasy starts/sits related to quarterback performance.

Quarterbacks: Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky

1. Bailey Zappe:

Ranked 30th in my rankings and 28th by Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), Zappe has yet to consistently meet his player prop expectations. He has exceeded his passing yard prop of 161.5 in three out of four starts. However, his touchdown prop of 0.5 remains unfulfilled, and he has thrown five interceptions in four games. As a result, betting on Zappe’s performance warrants careful consideration. Taking the over on the INT prop of .5 feels like the best value vs this Steelers defense.

2. Mitchell Trubisky:

Ranked 28th in my rankings and 27th by ECR, Trubisky faces a formidable opponent in the New England Patriots, who have been the top-ranked defense in points allowed over the past month. Given the anticipated heavy emphasis on running plays from both teams, it may be prudent to avoid betting on the quarterbacks’ performance altogether.

Running Backs: Ezekiel Elliott, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harris

1. Ezekiel Elliott:

Ranked 22nd in my rankings and 27th by ECR, Elliott will be the primary running back in the absence of Stevenson. With a heavy workload and a favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs, Elliott is likely to surpass his rushing yard prop of 59.5.

2. Najee Harris:

Ranked 28th in my rankings and 25th by ECR, no player props have been provided for Harris. Please refer to the latest updates on his availability and performance before making any betting decisions. He has missed the last two practices with a knee injury.

3. Jaylen Warren:

Ranked 29th in my rankings and 23rd by ECR, Warren’s performance is contingent on Harris’ availability. If Harris is unable to play, Warren becomes a strong option and is likely to surpass his rushing yard prop of 53.5. However, if Harris does play, Warren’s production could be limited due to a committee approach and the Patriots’ defense allowing fewer rushing yards to running backs.

Wide Receivers: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Tyquan Thornton, DeVante Parker, and JuJu Smith-Schuster

1. Diontae Johnson:

Ranked 35th in my rankings and 31st by ECR, Johnson has been Trubisky’s favored target. However, considering the defensive matchup, he has fallen short of the 41.5 receiving-yard prop in three out of the last four games. Exercise caution when betting on Johnson’s performance.

2. George Pickens:

Ranked 53rd in my rankings and 41st by ECR, Pickens’ recent performance has been inconsistent. While he exceeded the 38.5 receiving yard prop in three out of the last four games, this matchup may not favor exploiting receiving props. It is advisable to refrain from betting on Pickens’ performance in this game. From a fantasy perspective, Pickens could be considered a drop in redraft leagues. Remember, we are heading into the playoffs and condensing rosters may be optimal beforehand. Pickens saw his highest finish as the WR25 in half-point PPR leagues since week 7. That was against a porous defense and a negative game script to pave the way for the WR3 performance. This game does not setup the same way.

3. Devante Parker:

Ranked 50th in my rankings and 50th by ECR, Parker did go over his receiving-yard prop of 37.5 last week in the absence of Demario ‘Pop’ Douglas. Joey Porter may be slated to shadow in this one and I wouldn’t anticipate Zappe forcing too many throws downfield.

4. Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster:

If you want to bet on the 12.5 and 13.5 receiving props for these two players then you are a gambler on a level I will never aspire too.

Tight Ends: Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry

1. Pat Freiermuth:

Ranked 14th in my rankings and 12th by ECR, Freiermuth has shown promise, surpassing the 26.5 receiving yard prop in the last two games. A check-down option for Trubisky, Freiermuth could benefit from volume in a game with limited passing opportunities.

2. Hunter Henry:

Ranked 24th in my rankings and 21st by ECR, Henry has fallen short of the 21.5 receiving yard prop in the last three games. Considering the recent trend, exercise caution when betting on Henry’s performance.

Considering the backup quarterback play and inept offenses, it is wise to take caution when betting on the over/under and player props in this game. While some players like Elliott and Freiermuth show promise, others may underperform due to limited passing opportunities and strong defensive matchups. Stay informed with the latest updates on player availability and performance before making any betting decisions.

For more content from Dan Mader, host of the MD’s Fantasy Football Show, visit the YouTube channel, or get the edge by viewing his industry-accurate rankings here.