I recently wrote an article explaining why I tend to wait on QBs. Though I will rarely draft the early QBs, it is still good to have an idea of rankings in case one falls to a good value. This is a list of my top 12 QBs.

This list will be ranked and broken up into tiers. In my opinion, tiers are much more important than ranks. Another thing to note is that I will include ADP in brackets to see who I think is overvalued and who is undervalued. Another thing to keep in mind is that along with end-of-season rankings, I also care about how reliable these QBs will be week-to-week.

Tier 1

1. Josh Allen [ADP: 1]

With so much passing and rushing volume along with the talent to do well in those two areas, Josh Allen is clearly the top option. It’s very rare that a QB finishes QB1 twice in a row and he has done that. It’s tough to threepeat that but I do not see anyone with a better chance to finish at the top this season. He has lost a few depth receivers, but I do not believe that will impact him too much.

2. Justin Herbert [ADP: 3]

Coming off a QB2 season, I think he has a good chance of repeating there. Like Josh Allen, he puts up a lot of yards through the air and on the ground and he’s still young. Justin Herbert’s weapons are mostly back and he still has a coach that likes to go for it on 4th down.

Tier 2:

3. Kyler Murray [ADP: 5]

He started the 2021 season on a tear until week 8 when he suffered an ankle sprain. I think Kyler Murray could easily finish the season as the QB1 but he has yet to show it in the past and will need to play the first few games without DeAndre Hopkins. The addition of Marquise Brown should help though.

4. Lamar Jackson [ADP: 4]

The Baltimore QB struggled through injuries last year, but when healthy, Lamar Jackson can put up big fantasy points by combining decent running back numbers with decent quarterback numbers. He has shown he is very likely to get well over 1000 yards on the ground if he stays healthy. One big concern is that he lost his top receiver in Hollywood Brown but Bateman can help partially compensate for that and his fantasy value isn’t heavily reliant on his passing numbers anyway.

5. Jalen Hurts [ADP: 7]

This is possibly the safest QB to draft at cost. Jalen Hurts is likely the worst passer on this list and definitely not among the real-life top 12 QBs, but with similar rushing ability to Lamar, he is great for fantasy. However, with the addition of an elite receiver in A.J. Brown and even more time to develop, he could surprise us and show a decent passing game, which would make him even better for fantasy.

6. Patrick Mahomes [ADP: 2]

He’s likely the QB most NFL teams want but he’s rarely the top fantasy QB drafted. Patrick Mahomes could definitely be the QB1 in fantasy with how good a passer he is and he puts up numbers on the ground as well. However, he generally runs less than everyone I have ranked above him and he lost his top receiver.

7. Tom Brady [ADP: 9]

He is the only name in the top 2 tiers who has never really been known for running much. But Tom Brady can air it out and has the weapons to work with to continue to help him put up big numbers. I am also expecting him to score many TDs and the Tampa Bay defence isn’t one that really one that disincentivizes him from putting up points.

8. Russell Wilson [ADP: 11]

He has almost always been really good for fantasy despite being on a Seattle offence that limited the passing game. The Broncos like to run the ball as well, but with a huge upgrade at QB, I expect them to let Russell Wilson do what he’s done before but with even more volume. He already has a good arsenal around him so I think he should have big weeks while also being a high-floor starter since he does still run despite his age.

9. Trey Lance [ADP: 13]

No one really knows how good he will be in the NFL but with that cannon of an arm and that rushing talent, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trey Lance isn’t good for fantasy. He has a coach that will ensure he is at least decent and he has pretty good receiving options to work with.

Tier 3:

10. Joe Burrow [ADP: 6]

I am guessing this will be the most controversial ranking. But would it surprise you to hear that Joe Burrow was QB10 per game last year? In fact, the other two guys in this tier finished ahead of him last year. I have previously written an article from a dynasty point of view about why I think he’s overrated. In general, as great as he is in real life, he’s really not that great for fantasy. He’s good, but his ceiling is capped since he doesn’t run much and he has had relatively few good weeks for fantasy.

11. Dak Prescott [ADP: 8]

The face of the Cowboys has always been a solid starter with a huge ceiling because of how much he passes and how much he used to run. I do think Dak Prescott’s passing numbers could take a hit with Amari Cooper’s departure, but there are reports he may run more again since he is further removed from that freak injury from the 2020 season. If he does run again, he should have a decent floor with the upside to have week-winning performances.

12. Aaron Rodgers [ADP: 10]

It feels really dirty putting the reigning back-to-back league MVP here, but with his age, decrease in rushing attempts, and the loss of Davante Adams, it’s tough to rank him higher. But he is still on my list of the top 12 QBs. Aaron Rodgers is a very efficient passer and I think he has a very good chance to beat his ranking and ADP but I definitely prefer the names I have listed above him.

Bonus Tier 4:

13. Matthew Stafford [ADP: 12]

The reigning Superbowl champion being outside of the top 12 QBs has more to do with the talent ahead of him than him being unworthy of being a QB1. The big concern besides a lack of mobility is the injury along with his injury history. Matthew Stafford has a great offence around him and he should get a lot of yards if healthy. But if the Rams RBs stay healthy, they may lean on the run more than they did last year as well.

Wrap-Up

You will notice that I gave quick blurbs with each name. I could add a lot more information alongside each but I didn’t want this article to be too long. Feel free to reach out if you have any further questions about my opinion on the fantasy value of these top 12 QBs.

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