UFC 258 featuring Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns was scheduled in the perfect spot. With the NFL coming to an end, UFC President Dana White sure knows how to schedule fights to fill the void. Throughout the months of February and March, there are some killer UFC cards. It all starts this Saturday, February 13th, as the first fight on the main card kicks off at 10 PM EST. This fight is a long time coming. After being canceled twice, it looks like it will finally happen. We aren’t here to give you the history of these two fighters troubles. We are here to give you our best bets for Saturday night. Let’s dive into it!

Main Card (10PM EST)

Fight One: Maki “Coconut Bombz” Pitolo (+145) v. Julian “The Cuban Missile Crisis” Marquez (-170)

To kick things off on UFC 258, we have a close odds fight with an o/u on rounds set at a mere 1.5. Pitolo is coming off two losses in a row, while dropping three of his last four. Could he get back on track going up against Julian Marquez who hasn’t fought since his Ultimate Fighter Finale loss in July of 2018? The outcome of this fight is going to weigh heavily on the comeback fighting style for Marquez. Taking a 2.5 year break can be detrimental to your success in your first fight back in the UFC. Just ask Conor McGregor.

While the odds are in favor of Marquez for Vegas, it doesn’t play out well for his success in this fight with the time off he has taken. We see a lot of feeling out in the first round. Both of these fighters will be getting the rest off after a long break.

Pick: o1.5 Rounds (-170) AND Maki Pitolo (+145)

Fight Two: Jim “A-10” Miller (+220) v. Bobby “King” Green (-270)

With this fight jumping onto the main card of UFC 258 (taking the place of Ewell and Gutierrez), which was a replacement fight in it’s own, we have seen some shuffling in the fight lineup. However, this fight should’ve been on the main card to begin with. Two seasoned vets going toe-to-toe in the octagon is something you love to see. 

Jim Miller has had a good, but shaky career. Bobby Green has had a steady decline on the back half of his fight record as well. With two very unpredictable fighters at this age (34 and 37), we aren’t going to pick a side. We are rolling with the over in this one of 2.5 rounds. Green’s last nine fights have gone to decision. You read that right, NINE! With these fighters declining and age coming into play, we find it very hard to see a finish coming in the back half of this fight. 

Pick: o2.5 Rounds (-250)

Fight Three: Kelvin Gastellum (-220) v. Ian “The Hurricane” Heinisch (+180)

A fight that matches up so evenly on paper in terms of strikes, takedowns, reach, but it is so heavily favored in terms of odds. If there is one thing you should know about the UFC, it’s that there can be an upset on any given night when you have two people throwing fists at each other. 

Gastellum’s name has definitely followed him around after shooting up the rankings so quickly. Since then, he has lost four of his last six fights and just has not looked as sharp as he did when he entered the UFC. It is hard to bet on a guy that has lost three straight fights, then enters a fight as a -220 favorite. Both of these fighters can get it done on any side of the game. We are going to have to lean the underdog here for value purposes since he has the slight advantage in length and ground skills to get the job done. Combine that with seven of Heinich’s fourteen wins coming from decision and Gastellum’s four of six losses by decision, we have a nice value add here.

Pick: Ian Heinisch (+180) | Value Play: Heinisch by Decision (+330)

Fight Four: Maycee “The Future” Barber (+120) v. Alexa Grasso (-135)

A lot of people are not into women’s UFC, but this fight should not disappoint as the second to last fight on the UFC 258 card. Maycee Barber was dominating the game and making her way to the top up until her loss last January against the long time veteran Roxanne Modafferi. Maycee is “The Future” indeed at 22 years old with five KO’s in her eight professional wins. She has the skill and power to be a contender in the Flyweight division.

Grasso, on the other hand, totes an impressive 12-3 record. The thing is that the three of her losses have come on the back end of her fighting record. She is on a “win one, lose one” streak which, if continued, is set for another loss to come against Maycee Barber. We are leaning with the young gun in this one. She has the power and skills to end a fight quickly if needed.

Pick: Maycee Barber +120 | Value Play: Barber by TKO +405

Fight Five (Main Event): Welterweight Title Fight: Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (-280) v. Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (+230)

Finally, the fight to put the hype of Gilbert Burns to rest to see if he actually has what it takes. Hopefully this fight is entertaining, but that is a long shot. Marty Snoozeman gets his nickname for a reason, because his fights put you to sleep. If that is the case in this fight, our bets should be of good value. Not to discredit Kamaru or his skills, but he does tend to have boring fighting tendencies. If you’ve never watched a fight of his, he loves to hug his opponents against the cage and stomp on their feet for 20 minutes.  It’s seemed to work well enough to carry him to his 17-1 record.

Of all the people to be able to stop this, we think Gilbert Burns might be able to be the one. As Usman’s former teammate, he should know his tendencies, his moves, how to avoid getting clinched against the cage. Burns should be able to use those to his advantage to turn it into the fight he wants it to be. Even then, we think this fight could drag out and be a grind for him to gain control of the octagon. We’ve got two picks for you here, one small value play and one main play. 

Picks: o4.5 Round (-145) | Value play – Gilbert Burns +230

Make sure you tune into the fight on Saturday for the PPV event of UFC 258. Check out our podcast “2 Drunk Brothers & a Podcast” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and just about anywhere you can think of. Also, head over to the Action Network to follow us for all of our daily plays as well! 

Best of luck! -Travis and Jerett