Saturday, February 13th, sees Gilbert Burns square off against the champ Kamaru Usman at UFC 258. Who leaves with their hands raised, and how does it happen? What about the rest of the card?

Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare”Usman (17-1) vs Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (19-3)

This has been the title fight to make at 170 pounds. I previewed this fight in early January, and I remain crazy excited about the matchup. Usman has been purely dominant in his UFC run, and Gilbert “Durinho” Burns has looked like a monster at his more natural weight. This is one of those fights that is really hard to predict, because we don’t know the game plan for either fighter. Who controls the octagon? How much has Trevor Wittman improved Usman’s striking? Will Burns‘ comfort off his back cause Usman to keep the fight on the feet, similar to the Colby Covington fight? On paper, this matchup is as close as they come. I have spent an inordinate amount of time thinking about this UFC 258 title fight, and have finally decided; give me Burns by five round decision, and the start of a new title reign. Jiu Jitsu vs Everybody! Betting note: I am avoiding anything but the line on this fight, because pretending I know how this will look is disingenuous.

Maycee “The Future” Barber (8-1) vs Alexa Grasso (12-3)

Maycee Barber returns to action after an extended layoff due to an ACL injury. She experienced her first career setback to Roxanne Modafferi, against whom the injury occurred. Some say during the first, some the second. I say, who cares? Barber showed she has the grit to be great by finishing. Ignore her dad, just like Roxanne did. Grasso is a gamer herself, and while 2-2 in her last four, she appears to have found her natural weight class. I expect this fight to be a striking battle, and Grasso has proven to be a skilled, volume striker. This should be a really exciting contest, and an opportunity for both of these women to really generate some momentum in the flyweight rankings. I think Grasso ends up being a very dangerous flyweight, but I’ll take Barber by KO/TKO in the second. Betting note: Barber has been a violent finisher, and is likely to be the bigger fighter. I prefer Barber inside the distance to the line.

Kelvin Gastelum (16-6, 1 NC) vs Ian “The Hurricane” Heinisch (14-3)

If you don’t know Ian Heinisch’ story, look into it. Cool journey, and he can really fight too. Heinisch is 3-2 in the UFC, and has only been finished once by an armbar in his MMA career. He has some submissions, but his primary weapons are his hands. His last win was a KO/TKO over Gerald Meerschaert. Kelvin Gastelum is on a three fight skid, but against three killers. He has wins over UFC legends on his resume, such as Michael Bisping, Tim Kennedy, and Johnny Hendricks. With how long he has been doing this, it’s easy to forget he is only 29 years old. This contest is the one I am most undecided on. Since I must make a choice, give me Kelvin Gastelum by three round decision. Betting note: Gastelum and Heinisch are great examples of guys who are tough to get out of there, and they both have powerful hands. The line might be the safest place to bet.

Jim “A-10” Miller (32-15, 1 NC) vs Bobby “King” Green (27-11-1)

Are we sure Jim Miller is mortal? He just keeps fighting. The all-time UFC leader in wins in the 155 pound division, Miller is a likely future Hall of Famer. His last four UFC wins have come via submission, so I expect him to push for the fight to enter the grappling realm. Bobby Green, meanwhile, is smooth chaos. His striking is difficult to prepare for, because very few people fight the same way. UFC 258 is an opportunity for either man to add an impressive win and throw their name in the hat for a ranked fight. The amount of high-level fight experience showcased in this matchup HAS to be among the highest ever. As a fan, I hate to see either of these guys lose. Since I have to pick, I say Green outpoints Miller and wins via unanimous decision. Betting note: Green has amazing striking, but has not consistently demonstrated finishing power. Green by decision should move the line in your favor vs just playing the line.

Julian “The Cuban Missile Crisis” Marquez (7-2) vs Maki “Coconut Bombz” Pitolo (13-7)

I have been waiting a long time to see Marquez return to action. After 31 months off, he still finds his way onto a main card. Why? Because this man is a devastating force and presence in the octagon. His return to action is among my most anticipated moments of 2021. On the other side is Maki Pitolo. At 1-3 in the UFC, Pitolo is sure to be backed into a corner. If he exits this fight with a loss, he is a candidate to be released. I expect that pressure to bring out the very best in Pitolo. That being said, my pick is still Marquez, as I think he will just be too much of a physical presence. Marquez settles in and gets it done via KO/TKO in the second. Betting note: Marquez should be fully healthy and recovered from his time off, and he tends to close things out early. Marquez in the early rounds, inside the distance, and by KO/TKO all seem smarter than playing his line.

Notes From the Undercard

I am a sick man… I have an addiction to MMA. The prelims have some interesting fights as well, and some fun names. My favorite bet outside the main card is Rodolfo Vieira by submission. He fights the talented Anthony Hernandez, but Vieira has amazing BJJ, and Hernandez has been submitted by lesser practitioners. Also, Belal Muhammad hasn’t lost inside the distance since 2016, and Dhiego Lima has two split decisions in his immediate rearview. Give me Muhammad by decision.

On the early prelims, I am still shocked that Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher isn’t getting more attention. Kelleher struggled his last time facing a wrestler vs Cody Stamann, and Simon showed excellent wrestling in his last outing. I like Simon by decision, or Kelleher inside the distance, depending who you prefer. I can’t see Kelleher outpointing Simon, so inside the distance or bust on his side. Gillian Robertson is a good fighter, but Miranda Maverick might be something special. She has won four straight, and three of those inside the distance. This should be a dogfight, but I lean toward Maverick inside the distance.

Agree with the analysis? Hate the picks for UFC 258? Let me know on twitter @phicks7, and follow Belly Up Fantasy for more MMA analysis.