Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Ultimate RB Guide for Your Dynasty PPR Drafts

Welcome to part two of my dynasty football draft series. If you read, enjoyed, or found my QB article helpful, then sit down with an ice-cold lager and gear up for more useful information. The RB position is so important in fantasy football and you can expect the top guys to be gone very early in your dynasty draft. Age is more of a red flag for me at the RB position compared to the QB position, so draft accordingly.

I will provide you all with some big names I will be taking in every draft without worrying where I draft them. Personally, I love taking two running backs with my first two picks, but I also believe in a lot of the wide receivers even more than the RBs this year and going forward. I recommend taking an RB and then a WR with your first two picks to cover the two biggest positions with two studs right off the bat.

As I said before, KNOW YOUR OPPONENTS. Study what they do each year and make predictions about who and what they will pick early on. The rounds I provide are just projections and may not be exactly what happens in your leagues. Be ready for anything! Stay posted for my post NFL Draft value picks. I did not add rookie running backs in this article, but they will be included in my new top 25 in my rookie article.

*Please note that the RB TD totals between the inside the 10 and inside the 5 usages should not be added together. Some of the touchdowns coincide with one another. These specific stats are based on the 202-2021 season.

Jonathan Taylor – Round 1 or 2 – 22 years old

2020 (Rookie) – 15 GP, 252.8 PPR Points (#6), 16.9 AVG (#10)

Inside the 10 Usage – 25 attempts, 43 yards, 9 TD, 53.2% of teams RB rushing within the 10

Inside the 5 Usage – 12 attempts, 8 yards, 6 TD, 50% of teams RB rushing within the 5

Jonathan Taylor is my go-to guy in dynasty. I’m taking him very early on and I’m not regretting it. I won’t take him over McCaffrey, Barkley, or Kamara, but I’ll take him over any other RB out there for his current value as well as the elite upside he carries every time his cleats touch the field. I have seen Taylor taken in the first three picks in a few mocks so far and to be honest, I’m not completely surprised.

In his rookie season, Taylor posted 1,169 rushing yards (#3) with 11 TD’s (#7) on 232 attempts in 15 GP. He also had 36 receptions (#19) with 299 receiving yards (#18) and 1 receiving TD. Taylor didn’t flash his true potential until the final six weeks of his season, but in weeks 11 through 17, he was third overall in PPR points (145.7) behind only Derrick Henry and David Montgomery. Do you want to hear his average PPR/PPG during that span? A whopping 24.3 PPR points which was also ranked #3 in that span behind again, Derrick Henry and David Montgomery.

Remember when I brought up this Colts offensive line in my QB article? Well I’m doing it again. This is an elite offensive line that had a down year with injuries and still ranked in the top 10 for PFF grades (#7). Prepare for their O-line to bounce back and be even better which means even more production for Jonathan Taylor. Take Taylor as your RB of both the present and future, and be happy you did so while he surpasses the 1K rushing yard mark year annually.

Nick Chubb – Round 2 or 3 – 25 years old

2020 – 12 GP, 207.7 PPR points (#11), 17.3 AVG (#9)

2019 – 16 GP, 255.2 PPR points (#8), 16.0 AVG (#10)

2018 – 16 GP, 194.5 PPR points (#17), 12.2 AVG (#25)

Inside the 10 usage – 21 attempts, 39 yards, 7 TD, 42.9% of teams RB rushing within the 10

inside the 5 usage – 11 attempts, 7 yards, 5 TD, 47.8% of teams RB rushing within the 5

Nick Chubb is someone you’re going to have to take in the second or third round, despite his lack of being a pass catcher in the backfield. In just 12 GP this past season, Chubb was ranked as the 11th RB in PPR rankings. This is a guy who, again, is not known as a PPR stud, yet ranked among the top players at the position in fewer games played than the majority of them. Ever heard of Kareem Hunt? Yeah, Chubb puts up these numbers even with Hunt lurking close behind.

Chubb’s stat line in the previous season: 12 GP, 190 attempts, 1,067 rushing yards (#7), 12 TD, (#4), 16 Rec (#57), 150 receiving yards (#45), 0 TD. Did I mention the offensive line that Nick Chubb runs behind finished the year as the top overall PFF graded line? Now let’s imagine a full season of Chubb running behind an all-pro Jack Conklin, Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, Jedrick Willis Jr., and J.C. Tretter. Hint, it’s going to be madness.

From Week 10 to Week 17, Chubb was the #5 RB in PPR formats and averaged 18.4 fantasy points (#9) in that span. I’m going to warn everyone in advance that Chubb will give us 1st round value in return for our investments. He is also only 25 years old. Chubb is proven, elite, and a very safe pick with an astronomically high ceiling if everything clicks. Draft him early, build around him, and enjoy the big points.

Cam Akers – Rounds 2 to 4 – 21 years old

2020 (Rookie) – 12 GP, 101.8 PPR points (#45), 8.5 AVG (#47)

Inside the 10 usage – 21 attempts, 50 yards, 2 TD, 32.3% of teams RB rushing within the 10

Inside the 5 usage – 8 attempts, 3 yards, 1 TD, 25% of teams RB rushing within the 5

A rib injury kept Akers from flashing his big-time potential during most of his rookie season, but toward the end, we had the pleasure of seeing what he could do. In 145 attempts, Akers posted 645 rushing yards (#30) with just 2 TD (#53). This is not the outcome you should expect going forward.

Goff is out and Stafford is in. A much better QB situation with the #3 ranked offensive line in football can only mean one thing for the talented and young RB; 1,000 yards as a floor. In my opinion, he’s a workhorse kind of guy who only has Darrell Henderson as competition now but we all know who the better option is.

From Weeks 10 to 14, Akers put up 64.9 PPR points (#13) with an average of 13 PPR points per game (#23). Did anyone see what he did in the playoffs? Against the Seahawks he put up 131 rushing yards with 1 TD in 28 attempts. He also had 2 receptions for 45 yards. Against the Packers, he recorded 90 rushing yards and 1 TD in attempts. He also had 1 reception for 6 yards. This is the Akers we are looking at when we are taking him within the first four rounds. Will he put up 100+ yards every game? Maybe not, but as I said before, this is an annual 1,000+ yard back.

J.K. Dobbins – Rounds 2 to 4 – 22 Years old

2020 (Rookie) – 15 GP, 168.5 PPR points (#24), 11.2 AVG (#33)

Inside the 10 usage – 23 attempts, 28 yards, 5 TD, 63.9% of teams RB rushing within the 10

Inside the 5 usage – 10 attempts, 10 yards, 4 TD, 62.5% of teams RB rushing within the 10

Besides Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins is my favorite player to pick in dynasty at the RB position. Dobbins split backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram last year so his numbers don’t look awesome. There is one stat that catches my eye the most and that’s his yards per attempt. Dobbins was fourth in the NFL last season with 6.01 yards per rush attempt. That stat put him ahead of every fantasy-relevant running back there is. Can he sustain that for an entire year as a starting RB? I’m going to say no. However, this gives us all a taste of what he’s capable of and that’s worth getting excited for.

Dobbins rushed 134 times for 805 yards (#16) and 9 TD (#11). Dobbins rushing touchdowns matched the same total as Aaron Jones, Melvin Gordon III, and Todd Gurley II. All three of the names I just mentioned were given much more volume than Dobbins, yet Dobbins still scored on the ground as much as them. Dobbins only had 18 receptions (#51) and 120 receiving yards (#58). His lack of receptions does not bother me as much in PPR only because I know the Ravens are going to run, run, run, run, and then run some more. Dobbins will get way more opportunities this season with Ingram out of town as well.

The Ravens offensive line ranked 16th in the NFL last season, but that was without Ronnie Stanley for all but six games. The Ravens did lose Orlando Brown via trade with the Chiefs but gained some picks that could turn into more OL depth. Alejandro Villanueva is expected to sign with the Ravens as well. We may see a revamped Ravens line that can protect their star players a bit more this year than last season. I’m taking Dobbins as early as the third round but I have seen him taken in the second round in mocks. Don’t wait too long or you WILL regret it.

Austin Ekeler – Rounds 3 to 5 – 25 years old

2020 – 10 GP, 165.3 PPR points (#26), 16.5 AVG (#12)

2019 – 16 GP, 309 PPR points (#4), 19.3 AVG (#6)

2018 – 14 GP, 168.8 PPR points (#25), 12.1 AVG (#27)

Inside the 10 usage – 10 attempts, 23 yards, 0 TD, 19.6% of teams RB rushing within the 10

Inside the 5 usage – 2 attempts, 3 yards, 0 TD, 10.0% of teams RB rushing within the 5

Austin Ekeler is going to be back as a PPR machine this upcoming season and going forward. The Chargers have their franchise QB and finally an all-pro offensive lineman in Corey Linsley protecting the QB and backfield. My guess is that the Chargers are going all-in on Herbert and taking a top offensive lineman with their first or second-round pick. This is great for Ekeler. Injuries got the best of Ekeler this past season, but that just means you’re going to get good value on him this year.

Ekeler finished the season as the #26 back in PPR formats with 530 (#35) yards with 1 TD (#70) in 116 attempts. He also finished with 54 receptions (#6), 6.5 average targets per game (#3), 403 receiving yards (#5), and 2 TD (#13). You can bet that he’ll be right up there near Alvin Kamara this season in receptions and receiving yards with the departure of Hunter Henry. Remember, Ekeler put up 993 receiving yards on 92 receptions with 8 receiving TD’s in 2019.

Please do not expect Ekeler to be a goal-line back, ever. He will get work in the red zone but that’s just not his forte. Joshua Kelly will most likely continue to take goal-line duties this year and going forward. This is a true PPR kind of guy and if you can snag him in rounds 3-5, you can be happy with the kind of value that you’re going to get in return.

Antonio Gibson – Rounds 3 to 5 – 22 years old

2020 (Rookie) – 14 GP, 202.2 PPR points (#13), 14.4 AVG (#19)

Inside the 10 usage – 17 attempts, 33 yards, 7 TD, 42.5% of teams RB rushing within the 10

Inside the 5 usage – 10 attempts, 9 yards, 5 TD, 40.0% of teams RB rushing within 5

I wanted to pick James Robinson here with how much volume he got last year and the success that followed, but the Jags are going to draft an RB. Antonio Gibson has tremendous upside and he showed us all exactly what he can do when he’s on his game. He can run, he can catch, and he can make defenders miss. The Redskins have J.D. McKissic in the mix who caught 80 passes last year out of the backfield, but I don’t believe this will hinder Gibson’s fantasy value or potential going forward.

An injury cut Gibson short last season, but he still put up good enough numbers to be a top fifteen back in the league (RB14). On 170 carries, Gibson rushed for 795 yards (#18) with 11 TD (#7). Gibson also caught 36 passes (#20) for 247 yards (#24) with 0 TD. I think we will see an uptick in targets during a healthy sophomore season behind the number six ranked offensive line in the NFL. Perhaps the arrival of Fitzpatrick will boost this offense a bit more than what previous QB’s could get done there in Washington.

From Weeks 1 to 12, Gibson was the number four RB behind only Henry, Cook, Kamara, and Robinson. That 12 week span consisted of 181.8 PPR points in 11 GP with a 16.5 AVG (#11). From Week 7 to Week 12, we saw Gibson average 21.6 PPR points behind only Derrick Henry. He was also the RB4 in that span. I think the floor for Gibson over his career is a high end RB2 with top 10 potential every year. At 22 years old, that’s a steal if you can get him past the third round.

He was slept on in the NFL draft, so don’t be that owner who sleeps on him in your upcoming dynasty drafts. Draft Antonio Gibson, unless you’re in a league with me, then please don’t draft him.

David Montgomery – Rounds 3 to 6 – 23 years old

2020 – 15 GP, 264 PPR points (#4), 17.7 AVG (#7)

2019 – 16 GP, 170.4 PPR points (#24), 10.7 AVG (#32)

Inside the 10 usage – 23 attempts, 28 yards, 5 TD, 63.9% of teams RB rushing within 10

Inside the 5 usage – 10 attempts, 10 yards, 4 TD, 62.5% of teams RB rushing within 5

I made it known that I was a disgruntled bears fan with my Trubisky remark in my QB article, so some may think this is a homer pick. But I watched every second of every Bears game this season and WOW, Montgomery flipped a switch this year and reached a level of RB talent that we haven’t seen in Chicago since Forte left. The movements, the vision, and the ability to read the defenses from the backfield really helped Montgomery find himself as the RB4 for PPR this past season.

On 247 carries, Montgomery rushed for 1,070 yards (#5) which was tied with James Robinson who ultimately finished behind Montgomery. He also scored 8 TD (#13) on the ground which tied with D’Andre Swift. Montgomery surprised us all with his target volume by catching 54 passes (#6) with 438 yards (#4) and 2 TD (#13). Did you guys know that from Weeks 12 to 17, Montgomery was the RB1 in PPR? He averaged 25.7 PPR points (#2) in that span.

Can we just imagine for a minute what Montgomery could do if he had an actual QB calling plays and a more competent offensive line blocking for him? We could see Montgomery as a top 10 back for the next five years. He is progressing and already putting up big numbers. Expect the Bears to finally bolster their offensive line over the next year or two and see how much it helps. I’m taking Montgomery in my dynasty startup drafts and you should too.

Honorable RB Mentions

There are a few guys I’m looking to draft after the fifth and sixth round in my dynasty draft that I don’t have to over pay for. Some of these players carry risk, but the reward may be worth it in the end.

  1. Chris Carson – SEA
  2. Chase Edmonds – ARI
  3. Mike Davis – ATL
  4. Kenyan Drake – LV
  5. Zack Moss – BUF

David’s 2021 Dynasty RB Top 25 – PPR

*Rankings based on the next five years

  1. Christian McCaffrey – CAR
  2. Saquon Barkley – NYG
  3. Alvin Kamara – NO
  4. Jonathan Taylor – IND
  5. Dalvin Cook – MIN
  6. Nick Chubb – CLE
  7. Cam Akers – LAR
  8. J.K. Dobbins – BAL
  9. Austin Ekeler – LAC
  10. Derrick Henry – TEN
  11. David Montgomery – CHI
  12. Aaron Jones – GB
  13. D’Andre Swift – DET
  14. Ezekiel Elliott – DAL
  15. Antonio Gibson – WAS
  16. Miles Sanders – PHI
  17. Joe Mixon – CIN
  18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – KC
  19. Josh Jacobs – LV
  20. Chris Carson – SEA
  21. James Robinson – JAC
  22. Kareem Hunt – CLE
  23. AJ Dillon – GB
  24. Ronald Jones – TB
  25. Chase Edmonds – ARI

I decided not to include rookies because I will be doing separate rookie articles for the RB and WR position. Please stay tuned for my dynasty WR article that will be out in the next week where I help you build around some WR’s for your dynasty drafts this NFL season.

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