Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Betting, Fantasy Football

Week 10 Recap: Hits, Misses and Pushes

Last week I posted two articles outlining some of my favorite DFS studs along with some really good (so I thought) cheap plays. I like to hold myself accountable for my predictions. Let’s take a look at some of my hits, misses and pushes (AKA, it wasn’t really right but it wasn’t really wrong).

Hits

Signifies that he won bets.

Wayne Gallman

Wayne Gallman goes over the pile for his first of two touchdowns
Wayne Gallman goes over the pile for his first of two touchdowns

As I outlined in my DFS Cheap Plays article, I predicted Gallman to have a productive day with the Giants’ ground game trending in the right direction. Gallman rushed for 53 yards and 2 scores. Factor in the production he gave you through the air (not much, but they count!), and he got you a very nice 19 points on DraftKings.

J.D. McKissic

McKissic was another one of my favorite cheap plays, and he got it done in the pass game as I predicted. He was targeted a total of 15 times, catching 7 for 43 yards. He tacked on a rushing TD to give fantasy owners a hefty 17.9 DK points.

Cole Beasley

Beasley turned out to be another fantastic cheap plays call. Against a very weak Arizona defense, Beasley racked up 11 catches on 13 targets, 109 yards and a touchdown. If you slotted Beasley into your DraftKings lineup, he netted you an awesome 30.9 points. Out of all my hits, misses, and pushes, this was easily my biggest hit.

Misses

He lost bets.

Everything in the Rams vs Seattle Matchup

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp

Biiiiiiig swing and a miss here. I predicted big things out of Woods, Kupp and Lockett. No one has been slowed down by the Seattle “We Only Try On Offense” Seahawks this season. Well, they didn’t exactly allow the Rams to light it up, but they didn’t really slow them down either. The issue for Woods and Kupp was the Rams did a great job spreading it out. Goff was an excellent 27/37 for 302 yards. He spread the ball out to 8 different receivers and the Rams touchdowns all came on the ground. Brutal. Woods wound up with only 8.6 DK points, Kupp with 10.

As for Lockett, I almost wanted to put him in the push category, but I felt like that was a little bit of a cop out. As I predicted, the Metcalf Ramsey matchup was pretty much avoided. Russel Wilson put a lot of his attention on Lockett, targeting him 9 times. The reason he ends up in the miss category? He was inefficient, catching only 5 catches for 66 yards and no scores. He ended with only 11.6 DK points. 🙁

When it comes to hits, misses and pushes, this game provided me with my biggest misses.

Evan Engram and Ross Dwelley

Didn’t exactly nail the cheap tight end plays, did I? I’ll start with Engram. The Giants played a very efficient game against the Eagles, and they got a lot of their work done on the ground and on the outside. The Eagles have a very good run defense, along with Darius Slay, who is not necessarily having a stellar year but slowed down Darius Slayton a few weeks ago. I was surprised to see a lot of the action go to Darius Slayton on the outside, catching 5 for 93 yards. Engram was disappointing with 2 catches for 15 yards.

What the heck was I thinking with Ross Dwelley? Maybe it was just the fact that I forgot Jordan Reed existed? Given his injury history, maybe I didn’t think Reed would be able to stay on the field for the entire length of a football game? I don’t know. I guess I can take a little pride knowing the 49ers tight end position did well? Combined, Reed and Dwelley had 6 catches for 84 yards. The problem, Dwelley only had 1 for 22. Whatever. Blew it on this call, my bad.

Pushes

Deshaun Watson and Duke Johnson

In my DFS Stud article, I predicted the Texans to do some serious damage, with most of it coming through the air. The problem was, the air was full of what looked like hurricane weather. It was bad enough to delay kickoff in Cleveland. I think the devoted fantasy players know to check their lineups going into game time to see if anything is amiss before kickoff. Vegas sent the over/under way down and most analysts advised against playing receivers/quarterbacks in this one. Of course, my article came out days before kickoff, so I didn’t exactly have the ability to pivot away from these studs. I hope you were able to adjust your lineups before kickoff.

Jared Goff

Jared Goff managed 14.48 points on DK. I consider him a push because of how effective he was in the passing game on Sunday. The issue with Goff in fantasy is, due to a complete lack of a run game, he is kind of touchdown dependent.

There were plenty of other candidates in all three categories I mentioned above (Kyler – super hit, Mike Davis – super miss), but you can go back and see my analysis for yourself to find the hits, misses and pushes!

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