You’re well aware by now of the lackluster reputation Thursday Night Football has earned this season. We’ve covered it pretty extensively and in no uncertain terms. Despite some early on-paper blockbuster matchups, the actual games themselves have largely underwhelmed. In a vacuum, a Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup between the league’s 25th- and 27th-ranked scoring offenses seems like more of the same. No one would blame you for thinking you’d much rather tune into SMU at Tulane (surprisingly high stakes for an American Athletic Conference game,) or searching Prime Video for something a bit more enticing than the Titans traveling to Green Bay to face the underachieving Packers. But a deeper look shows us a game rife with entertainment potential.

For starters, game time temperatures are expected in the low- to mid-20’s, with moderate winds and a chance of snow. Lambeau at night in the snow? I’d pay for that. Secondly, there are important implications in the standings here. Tennessee can maintain or improve on their lead in the AFC South with a win. Not only that, they can keep pace with Kansas City and Miami in the quest for the AFC’s number one seed. The Packers, meanwhile, find themselves just outside of the playoffs despite their recent five game losing streak. A win quiets the doubters and puts them one game closer to a wild card slot. Then, there’s the fact that each team’s offensive strength takes advantage of the other’s defensive weakness. We could see some fireworks here, and with them, some fantasy points to jumpstart your teams for the season’s homestretch.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Week 11 Thursday Night Preview: Titans’ Offense

The Titans find themselves in first place despite the fact they’ve been outscored on the season. They’re the lone first place team in the league for whom that’s the case. You can’t blame it on the defense, ranked seventh in the league for fewest points allowed. Instead, the fault lies with an offense that has struggled all season to find, much less maintain, any sort of rhythm or momentum. Tennessee ranks 31st in passing offense. They’re completing less than 60 percent of their passes for the second-fewest yards league-wide. Starter Ryan Tannehill has missed time with injuries, and rookie backup Malik Willis has looked completely not up to the task of starting in the league just yet. In five games (two as starter,) Willis is just 12 of 30 for 141 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. The coaching staff doesn’t seem to trust him throwing just yet.

But it’s not as if this team is a juggernaut rushing, either. With an offensive line ranked just 28th by PFF, the Titans are lucky they have human battering ram Derrick Henry as their primary back. Tennessee averages less than one yard per carry before contact, which is the second-worst in the league. It all adds up to an offense that ranks dead last in average yards per drive. They rank third from the bottom in percentage of drives that end in a score. Correspondingly, they rank third in percentage of drives that end in punts. And they have yet to put up more than 24 points in a game this season.

Titans’ Offense Big Question

So, can the Titans establish the run against a defense that’s given up the fifth-most rushing yards in the league? Green Bay will be missing All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, and Krys Barnes is coming off a concussion. They should be hard-pressed to stop Henry on inside runs, and he should be able to put up RB1 numbers here. But you were starting him, anyway. The bigger question is if there are any other useable pieces on this Titans’ offense, especially if the weather precludes leaning on the pass.

Tannehill hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been a disaster either. He’s just sort of… been. While he’s QB30 on a points-per-game basis, that’s due more to the lack of volume than lack of effective play. He has a better completion percentage than Lamar Jackson. Among those behind him in yards per attempt are Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers. He’s tied with Rodgers for 13th with a passer rating of 93.02. But Green Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks to begin with. Couple that with the low volume, and Tannehill’s no better than a low QB2 in this one. Of the wideouts, Treylon Burks offers the most upside, but is probably better as a DFS dart than a season-long FLEX. Robert Woods and last week’s star Nick Westbrook-Ikhine can be left on benches or the wire, as can the Tennessee tight ends.

Kicker Randy Bullock has been ruled out, so look elsewhere if your kicker’s on the bye or you’re a streamer. If you’re looking for a defense in a deep league, Green Bay gives up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing DST’s. The Titans are a cheap streaming/daily option in this one.

Week 11 Thursday Night Preview: Packers’ Offense

Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense finally shook off the demons that had plagued them all season (and especially in the previous five games) by rolling up 200 yards through the air and on the ground in a win against the Cowboys. Rookie wide receiver Christian Watson caught his first career touchdown in the second quarter. He liked the feeling so much, he’d catch two more before the night was over. Watson’s scores came from 58, 39, and 7 yards out. Rodgers found some chemistry with the rookie, and even (perhaps grudgingly) put some trust in the young wideout who’s frustrated him literally since the season’s first play. Green Bay may finally have the passing game weapon they’ve been missing since their surprise off-season trade of Davante Adams, just in time for the Week 11 Thursday Night contest.

Packers’ Offense Big Question

Rodgers and company should be able to get things fired up against the Titans’ defense. Tennessee ranks fourth, third, and ninth in fantasy points surrendered to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, respectively. Teams have to respect the new dimension that Watson has brought to the offense, which may mean more opportunities underneath for the Packers’ tight ends, slot receivers, and running backs. Four of the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks are on bye this week, so Rodgers makes a nice fill-in play. Look for him to put up low-end QB1 numbers. Watson’s big game aside, Allen Lazard is still Rodgers’s most trusted weapon. Five of the top-12 fantasy wideouts are on bye, so I’ve got Lazard right on the WR1/2 line this week. Watson profiles as a WR2/FLEX option, and could make a fun DFS play. Sammy Watkins could be a low-cost DFS dart throw.

Robert Tonyan still offers the most potential out of the Packers’ tight ends, although Josiah Deguara has flashed in some limited usage. But the volume just isn’t there for any of them, so look elsewhere if you can. Otherwise, Tonyan’s a low TE2 with a hint of touchdown upside. Tennessee is good against the run, so temper expectations for AJ Dillon this week. I have him as a low FLEX option. Jones, however, should put up high RB2-type numbers or better. While he may find tough going on the ground, he should be able to work underneath in the passing game as mentioned above. A good handful of catches and a score or two should supplement what figures to be a modest yardage day for Jones. I’m avoiding the Green Bay DST in this one, as the King Henry factor strikes at the heart of the Packers’ vulnerabilities.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Packers (-0.5)

Over/Under: 43.5

Notable Props: Ryan Tannehill passing yards (259.9); Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns (2); Derrick Henry rush attempts (17.4) and rushing yards (70.9); Aaron Jones receptions (3.6)

Challenge Chase!

No punting props in the article this week. Sorry ‘baht it, Pat McAfee. Anyway, ever wonder how you stack up against the experts? Now’s your chance to find out! You can use teams you’ve already drafted to take me on for weekly bragging rights with Flex Fantasy. Visit https://www.flex.fan/bellyup to sign up and challenge me, as I’ll be using lineups from my own home leagues. You can play for fun, play for money, or play for both! Look for SttChaseFFB’s teams in the Flex Fantasy Arena and sign up today. I promise I won’t rub it in (much) when I win. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast Sundays and Wednesdays all season long. Slàinte!