After being spoiled in Week 12 with all our healthy players available to us and zero teams on the bye, the NFL throws us a curve in Week 13. An unfathomable six teams are on the bye in Week 13. It’s the second time this season that’s been the case. Week 7 also gave us six teams on mini-vacation, but this one hurts a little more. We’re coming down to the final playoff push at the end of the fantasy regular season. You need wins NOW. You need points NOW. That’s where we come in, with your Week 13 start or sit decisions.

Now, you’re a smart, savvy fantasy manager. This isn’t your first rodeo. You know football. You know fantasy. And you know how and where to find the info to make those all-important decisions (you’re here, aren’t you?) I don’t need to tell you to start fantasy’s number two quarterback in overall scoring and points per game, even against a defense that’s giving up the third-fewest points to the position. (You’re playing Jalen Hurts against the ‘Niners- don’t overthink this.) So instead, I’ll generally be focusing lower in the rankings, guys on that FLEX bubble. Hopefully, you had DK Metcalf as a Week 13 start (I did- check out my rankings. I was seven points ahead of ECR on him.) Let’s mine some more of that fantasy gold.

Week 13 Start: Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders

The Washington Commanders are what we call a “get-right” defense. If your fantasy players have been in a slump lately, all it takes is a matchup with Washington for them to get right. Outside of tight end, the Commanders are a golden matchup in fantasy regardless of position. But that’s especially true at quarterback, where they’re giving up the most fantasy points to the position. Behind Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins are top-three in the league in pass completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, and passing touchdowns. They like to go deep, and Washington has been particularly vulnerable in that sense. Tua’s only QB13 overall, but the decision makes itself here. Fire him up in your lineup.

BONUS START: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers versus Kansas City Chiefs

Love has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games and has his three highest yardage totals of the season in those contests as well. He’s been on a heater lately and is now QB10 overall for the season. Granted, his last two games came against the Lions and the Chargers (both top-five scoring matchups at the position.) But he started this hot streak against Pittsburgh, who rank ninth against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. The Chiefs are a tough matchup, but with the Packers’ backfield impossibly banged-up, Green Bay will be relying on Love to move the ball. I’m expecting a shoot-out where Love will be passing early and often to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. With the run Love has been on, he’s worth a start in a week short on help.

Week 13 Sit: Quarterback

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints versus Detroit Lions

Hopefully, you’re not relying on Derek Carr week-in and week-out anyway, or your season’s probably beyond salvaging at this point. But a quick peek at matchups might convince you that he’s worth a shot. Detroit is number five in terms of points allowed to opposing fantasy quarterbacks and just gave up three scores to Love in a home loss on Thanksgiving. But Carr could only muster a QB21 showing last week against a beatable Falcons’ pass defense, despite a 300 yard day. His receiving corps is decimated by injuries and he may be relying on sixth-rounder A.T. Perry as his top target. There are better options.

Week 13 Start: Running Back

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers versus Arizona Cardinals

The Naj is only RB28 overall on the season. And for two seasons, the fantasy community has been clamoring for more Jaylen Warren. But Harris just won’t go away. Yes, Warren can be electric. But Harris is still the leader in carries in this backfield. The Cardinals are a great matchup. And Harris is coming off one of the best rushing games of his career in the Steelers’ first game post-Matt Canada. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. In a game the Steelers should win, look for Najee to pound the Cards into submission.

Week 13 Sit: Running Back

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers versus Kansas City Chiefs

With Aaron Jones ruled out for the Sunday night game and a bunch of JAGs surrounding him, you’d think Dillon would be an easy call to start. The Chiefs are a middling matchup in the run game and the carries should be Dillon’s to lose. But he’s dealing with a groin injury- not great for anyone, but especially a running back. He’s averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per carry this season with just one touchdown and hasn’t scored over 14 fantasy points since Week 15 of last season. The Packers will be throwing Sunday night. I’m looking elsewhere.

Week 13 Start: Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Kyler Murray has looked pretty good since his return from the injured list. But while he’s been putting up the fantasy points, Hollywood Brown hasn’t necessarily reaped the rewards. But it’s been due to bad luck as much as anything. Despite Murray completing over 60 percent of his passes since coming back, Brown has caught less than 43 percent of his targets in that time. Brown is second on the team in targets in that span, trailing tight end Trey McBride 25 to 21. Hollywood had a bit better luck last week catching six balls for 88 yards. He’s questionable with a heel injury, but if he goes, expect him to GO against a Steeler defense allowing the tenth-most points to wide receivers.

Week 13 Sit: Wide Receiver

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams versus Cleveland Browns

If Washington is a get-right defensive matchup, the Browns are the opposite. Cleveland’s defense is performing at a level rarely seen in the NFL, and that performance is reflected in their fantasy rankings. Cleveland allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts. They allow the absolute fewest point to quarterbacks and tight ends. You don’t throw on this team. Cooper Kupp looks like a go for this game. Nacua- the ultimate “boom” player during the season’s first month- has been much more boom-or-bust with Kupp in the lineup. After averaging over 12 targets per game that first month, Nacua has only hit 12 targets once since. And that was back in Week 7. I love Puka, but I’m really reluctant to put any trust into a guy who’s probably going to see only seven targets against this Cleveland defense.

Week 13 Start: Tight End

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams

I know you’re scared. I’m scared, too. It’s ok. The Browns have Browned especially hard at quarterback this season. Deshaun Watson took the rest of the year off just as he was looking like a viable option. PJ Walker has been aptly-named. Preseason darling Dorian Thompson-Robinson looks like the fifth-round project he is, and is out with a concussion. Which leaves Methuselah Joe Flacco under center for a road tilt against the Rams. Through it all, David Njoku just keeps chuggin’. He hasn’t had fewer than 10 fantasy points since Week 6 against the 49ers. He’s seen 33 targets in his last three games and is TE4 in that stretch. Los Angeles is a great tight end matchup, and we all know Flacco won’t want to be looking deep. I expect Njoku and the running backs to eat up most of the targets here. Should be a nice game for the Browns’ tight end. No njoking.

Week 13 Sit: Tight End

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Not much has gone right for Bill Belichick & Co. this season. About the one thing they have done right is defend against fantasy opponents’ tight ends (not much to go on, I know, Patriot fans.) New England is third in fewest points allowed to the position. We all saw the debacle that last week was for the Patriots. This won’t be an entertaining game, and Everett won’t be targeted much in a game I don’t expect will see much in the way of pass-game heroics. With only 26 teams playing, I still have Everett ranked in the bottom half of my rankings this week at TE15. He’s banged up and should arguably be losing looks to Donald Parham anyway. Stay away.

Best of Luck!

Hit me up on Twitter @SttChaseFFB with your specific Week 13 start/sit questions. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this fantasy season! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on my Facebook page, and catch me on MD’s Fantasy Football Show the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.