It’s certainly been an up-and-down ride on Thursdays for the NFL this season. Games that looked like surefire instant classics have put fans to sleep. The production values on Prime Video have been a work in progress and the subject of scrutiny. And we’ve seen controversy outweigh the action on the field more than once. But we’ve also seen a 99-yard, go-ahead pick-six in an early divisional showdown. Baker Mayfield proved that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated, leading the Rams on a furious comeback just hours after joining the team. And a rookie quarterback thrust into the spotlight led his team to a division-clinching victory. The Week 16 Thursday Night game between Jacksonville and the Jets didn’t look like much in the preseason, but things have changed. A lot.

Trevor Lawrence has overcome a bit of a midseason funk and is looking like one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He has the Jaguars one game back in a suddenly very winnable AFC South race. Zach Wilson has been out, in, out, and in again as the New York Jets’ starting quarterback. Despite sitting in last place in the AFC East, the Jets are just one game back of a playoff spot themselves. Wilson will try to lead them to victory coming off perhaps his best performance of the season. We’ve got strength-versus-strength in this surprising matchup, and fantasy managers still alive in their league playoffs are hoping for a strong start to their semi-final games. With points at a premium on the field and online, let’s shed some light on where those points may come from.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Week 16 Thursday Night Preview: Jaguars’ Offense

Over his last six games, Lawrence has thrown for 14 touchdowns against just one interception. That lone giveaway came last week against a Cowboys defense that leads the league in turnovers. He’s scored over 20 fantasy points in four of six games during that same stretch. Not coincidentally, the Jaguars are 4-2 in those games after a five game losing streak looked to have derailed their season.

The Jags’ pass catchers have benefitted mightily from Lawrence’s surge. Top wideout Christian Kirk has averaged six catches, nine targets, 78 yards and a half touchdown per game in that stretch, good for an average of 17.05 fantasy points per game. Zay Jones has been even better, with a 7/9/76/.67 line and averaging 18.58 points. That has them at WR13 and WR9 respectively over the past six games played by wide receivers. Evan Engram is the overall TE4 on the season, but is TE3 over the past six games, behind Travis Kelce and Cole Kmet. About the only fantasy asset who’s struggled for Jacksonville has been Travis Etienne. Etienne hasn’t scored since a pair of touchdowns Week 9 against Las Vegas and is averaging just 6.82 fantasy points in his last five games.

Jaguars’ Offense Big Question

Robert Saleh has the Jets’ defense rolling. New York gives up an average of just 4.8 yards per play, good for second-best in the league. Gang Green surrenders the second-fewest half-ppr fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Against opponents’ quarterbacks and running backs, the Jets surrender the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game (half-ppr). Can Lawrence and the Jaguars’ #22-ranked offensive line make enough plays to hit their recent averages and keep fantasy managers happy?

I, for one, can’t wait to watch this one tonight. Any time two teams’ strengths align against each other, it makes for interesting football. I’m betting the Jags can overcome the matchup to be useful for those still alive in their league brackets. I have Lawrence at QB9 this week, as I think he’s coming into his own as a professional signal-caller under Doug Pederson. Engram is also a must-start for me this week as TE5, as the Jets are just middling against opposing fantasy tight ends. I still like Kirk and Zay Jones, just not as highly as their season-long rankings suggest. I’ve got Kirk as a mid-tier WR2 in this one, while Jones checks in as a fine WR3/FLEX option. Even the Jaguars’ DST is a useable streamer here, as the Jets give up the 10th-most points to opposing fantasy DST units.

Week 16 Thursday Night Preview: Jets’ Offense

For as strong as the Jets’ defense has been on the season, their offense has been a train wreck (plane wreck?) Wilson’s preseason injury meant Joe Flacco started the season’s first three games. After Wilson’s return offered mixed results, Mike White was named the temporary starter. It turned out to be very temporary, as White suffered his own injury in Week 14 and was ruled out for Week 15 and the Week 16 Thursday Night game. At one point, New York won four straight and looked like they would challenge the Dolphins and Bills at the top of the AFC East. Now coming off three straight losses, the Jets trail not only Buffalo and Miami, but the Patriots as well, and have tumbled from the second wild card slot to the second team out of a playoff spot in the AFC.

The quarterback issues have had a deleterious effect on the rest of the offense, but the injury bug has spread itself throughout the Jets’ huddle. Breece Hall was looking like a runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year before a knee injury sent him to IR for the season. Michael Carter has performed passing-well, but battled injuries of his own. Corey Davis‘s injuries and the frustrations of Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims have created discord in the receiver room. And it’s all been tied together by a vastly under-performing offensive line.

Jets’ Offense Big Question

But Jacksonville is the get-right, shot-in-the-arm matchup everyone hopes for come fantasy playoff time. Where the Jets are fantasy bane against the “Big 3”, the Jaguars give up the fifth-, twelfth-, and eighth-most fantasy half-ppr points to opposing quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers respectively. They are reasonably tough on tight ends, but I haven’t been able to recommend a Jet tight end in good conscience all season. Even with C.J. Uzomah coming off a two-score performance last week, you weren’t playing a Jets’ tight end anyway if at all possible. But is anyone really useful for fantasy managers to take advantage of the tasty matchup?

Wilson may be on his last legs here in terms of proving he can be the franchise quarterback. I don’t want to have to start him this week (and I’m not in the one Superflex dynasty league where I roster him). But like I mentioned, he’s coming off a 300 yard day and has one or fewer interceptions in six of eight starts this season. He’s a low-end QB2 who benefits from the matchup. Between Bam Knight and Carter, I like Knight as a lower FLEX option. Carter does retain some (very) low FLEX appeal due to his pass-catching ability.

Garrett Wilson is the star of this offense with Hall missing. I have him on the WR1/2 bubble. He’s had just one real “dud” game in his last seven contests and should find enough holes in Jacksonville’s defense to continue that trend. None of the other Jet wideouts should be viewed as a realistic fantasy option until further notice. Greg Zuerlein is useable despite a relatively poor matchup. But outside of Wilson (the wideout, that is), the only really palatable fantasy option is the New York DST. I have them ranked at 11th overall this week. Again, that’s in spite of a poor matchup.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Jets (-4)

Over/Under: 37

Notable Props: Trevor Lawrence passing yards (260.8); Christian Kirk receptions (5.9); Zach Wilson passing touchdowns (0.9); Zonovan Knight rushing yards (89.5)

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