Week 17 has finally been put to bed. Week 18 is here, and there’s still much to be decided in the NFL playoff race. Two divisions are still up for grabs, and an NFC Wildcard is still within reach for three teams. In the fantasy (football) world, most leagues are wrapped up. But for those of us with two-week aggregate championships, or just a full 18 week schedule, it’s all coming down to this. The Week 18 Saturday Early Game matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders kicks off this “final” final weekend. Who will play, and for how long? The answers to that and more await.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Week 18 Saturday Early Game Preview: Chiefs’ Offense

There was more than a little angsty speculation this off-season about the state of the Chiefs’ offense. Kansas City traded away three-time All-Pro Tyreek Hill, replacing him with an assortment of characters. Neither JuJu Smith-Schuster nor Marquez Valdes-Scantling really filled the void on their own. Neither did roster holdover Mecole Hardman. Clyde Edwards-Helaire customarily struggled before going down with an injury. Naturally, then, Patrick Mahomes must have seen a precipitous drop in his statistics, right?

Um…yeah…about that…

By the time the Week 18 Saturday Early Game wraps up this evening, Mahomes will likely have career highs in almost every passing category, as well as fantasy points. He’s not just the fantasy QB1, he’s the fantasy overall number one. He’s done it by spreading the ball to every player at his disposal and playing efficient, effective football on the ground and through the air. Mahomes has had some help in the form of Jerick McKinnon‘s career year as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. All-World tight end Travis Kelce has looked as good as ever- or better. By the end of the day, he very well could have his highest season fantasy total as well. Not only did the Chiefs not miss a beat, they actually got more explosive as a unit.

Chiefs’ Offense Big Question

The Chiefs still need to win this game to clinch the AFC’s top seed and the bye that comes with it. While they out-match Las Vegas on paper by a good margin, the game won’t be a lock. The Raiders are coming off a game where they went toe-to-toe with the 49ers and equaled them score-for-score until the end. It’s been a disappointing season in Sin City, but Stidham looks comfortable in the offense. The Chiefs won’t necessarily put this away early, if at all. Therefore, the normal last week problems don’t necessarily apply here. I don’t expect Andy Reid to rest anyone or hold anything back. Will the Chiefs’ starters be in the game long enough to put up the numbers we’ve come to expect? I say, “Yes!”

The Raiders’ defense is NOT on the same level as the Raiders’ offense. They’re definitely not on the same level as the Chiefs’ offense. Expect Mahomes and Kelce to put up their usual top-level fantasy numbers. I have them both ranked number one at their respective positions. Likewise, McKinnon should be a useable fantasy starter. I have him in solid RB2 standing, with backfield mate Isiah Pacheco right there with him. You should feel comfortable using either or both. As for wide receivers, I don’t trust them as much. No Kansas City wideout has a target share of over 17 percent. Of the mish-mash, I’d prefer Smith-Schuster, but only as a low-end WR2. Kadarius Toney could be a sneaky-cheap DFS play if you’re taking big shots. The KC DST is a startable unit this week, but Harrison Butker is out and has struggled anyway. Look elsewhere for a leg.

Week 18 Saturday Early Game Preview: Raiders’ Offense

The Raiders’ offense has not looked anything like what we envisioned in the preseason. Yes, Davante Adams continued to soak up targets like nobody’s business. Yes, the offensive line struggled, especially early. And yes, Derek Carr was maddeningly inconsistent. But, Josh McDaniels and the Raiders also button-hooked everyone by leaning on Josh Jacobs. HARD. Jacobs has put together a monster campaign, leading the league in rush attempts and yards. He has career highs in rushing yards and receiving yards and has thus far attempted 50 more rushes than in any other season of his career. Despite the presence of more established pass-catching backs in Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah, Jacobs has a chance to finish with career highs in targets and receptions, and leads the backfield in target share by a wide margin.

That wasn’t the only surprise McDaniels had up his sleeve. Carr was benched last week for the remainder of the season in spite of the fact that the Raiders were still alive for a playoff spot. In his place is Jarrett Stidham, who followed McDaniels from New England and honestly looked much more comfortable and in command of McDaniels’s offense in his first career start last week. Stidham put up 365 yards and three scores against a 49er defense that had given up just 16 passing touchdowns in 15 games prior. To paraphrase Commissioner Gordon, it’s not the silver-and-black offense we deserve, but it is the offense we need.

Raiders’ Offense Big Question

So, the question is, can Stidham continue the magic he showed last week and put up similar numbers? While I don’t necessarily see this game as the shoot-out last week became, I do think the Las Vegas offense can thrive against a suspect Chiefs’ passing defense. The Chiefs give up the third- and ninth-most half-ppr fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers, respectively. I have Stidham as a solid QB2, but he’s got upside. He’s a good DFS play if you don’t want to spend the biggest bucks on the biggest stars. Adams will see his usual workload and should turn in a WR1-type day. Likewise, Jacobs should continue to see volume. I like him as an RB1, ranking him fifth at the position overall this week.

Darren Waller and actual fantasy weapon Daniel Carlson are also back-end starters for me at tight end and kicker. Waller has looked good and scored in two of three games since returning from injury, including last week against the ‘Niners. If you want to take a risk on either Mack Hollins or Hunter Renfrow, I’d stick to using them as DFS darts. Renfrow just hasn’t been the same in Adams’s shadow this season, healthy or otherwise. Hollins hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been more consistent than Renfrow and has actually flashed a couple times this year. Do not- I repeat, DO. NOT.- use the Raiders’ DST in this game. Although, if you’re just now figuring that out, you probably have no use for fantasy advice in a championship week, anyway.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Chiefs (-11.5)

Over/Under: 49

Notable Props: Travis Kelce receptions (5.6); Patrick Mahomes passing yards (284.3)

Challenge Chase!

Is your run through the fantasy playoffs over too early? Still craving competition? Use that woulda-coulda-shoulda lineup to take me on for weekly bragging rights with Flex Fantasy. Visit https://www.flex.fan/bellyup to sign up and challenge me, as I’ll be using lineups from my own home leagues. You can play for fun, play for money, or play for both! Look for SttChaseFFB’s teams in the Flex Fantasy Arena and sign up today. I promise I won’t rub it in (much) when I win. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast Sundays and Wednesdays all season long. Slàinte!