Colts-Broncos!? What a matchup! Studs at running back. Star wide receivers. Young, exciting tight ends. New veteran quarterbacks who will bring a new dimension to the offenses. On both sides! A possible playoff preview between two up-and-coming AFC threats! Thank you, NFL scheduling gods!

-Most of us, five weeks ago

Ouch, what a difference five weeks makes. A game that looked in the preseason like a potential fantasy goldmine has turned into a fantasy money pit. Highly drafted running backs gone by the wayside. Injured receivers who have missed time. Puzzling playcalling and usage patterns at tight end. Underperforming quarterbacks. Le sigh. But the game will still be played, so we’re going to try to make sense of it all in the Week 5 Thursday Night game preview.

Week 5 Thursday Night Preview: Broncos’ Offense

The Broncos had all the look of an offensive juggernaut. After trading for Russell Wilson in the offseason and subsequently signing him to an extension, optimism was high among fantasy managers. Finally, Courtland Sutton‘s full potential would be unleashed. Jerry Jeudy would thrive. Albert Okwuegbunam would become a household name. Sort of. And Javonte Williams would be the warhammer, smashing through opposing defensive lines and pummeling teams into submission.

Then, life happened.

Melvin Gordon was re-signed, cutting into Williams’s workload from the start. Tim Patrick was lost for the season early in camp. Williams was then lost for the season with multiple injuries to his knee just last week. Jerry Jeudy has missed time to injury. Wilson and his receivers are still developing chemistry. Nathaniel Hackett’s offense has quite literally ignored Albert O, at times using him as the third (or even fourth) tight end behind such superstars as Eric Saubert, Eric Tomlinson, and Andrew Beck.

Broncos’ Offense Big Questions

Despite last week’s loss to the Raiders, Wilson is coming off by far his most effective game for the Broncos. Not only did he pass for two scores, but was effective on the ground, with his best rushing yardage (four for 29 yards) of the season and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts have been very middle-of-the-road against opposing quarterbacks this season and will be without star linebacker Shaquille Leonard. They could be vulnerable if Wilson is finally settling in. The Colts are also nothing special against the run. They rank 17th in points allowed to opposing running backs. With Melvin Gordon looking like he’ll get the bulk of the backfield work, he could be a valuable play (provided he can actually hold onto the ball.)

The Colts have not been kind to fantasy wide receivers. To date, they have allowed the fourth-fewest half-ppr points per game to opposing wideouts. Temper expectations for Jeudy. Sutton should still see his customary eight or nine targets and is a high-end WR2 with touchdown upside. Other Bronco receivers should already be ignored, but especially this week. As a weird, contradictory corollary to their success against receivers, Indianapolis has surrendered the fifth-most half-ppr points to tight ends. The only problem there is that it’s anybody’s guess which Denver tight end (if any) will get the love from Hackett and Wilson this week. Steer clear until this picture comes into better focus.

Week 5 Thursday Night Preview: Colts’ Offense

The Colts’ offense has likewise been an underwhelming unit to this point for fantasy managers. Consensus top pick Jonathan Taylor is just RB22 at the season’s quarter point, and will miss the Week 5 Thursday Night game with an ankle injury. Matt Ryan (QB22) came into the season with a better-than two-to-one touchdown to interception ratio, but has five of each on the season. the five touchdowns are tied for only 15th among quarterbacks. But the five interceptions have him tied for second-most. His overall rating of 85.01 is nine points lower than his career average and five points lower than he managed with Atlanta last season. Throw in Michael Pittman missing a game with injury and the offensive line struggling with injuries to their two best players, and the Colts have not been near the productive offense fantasy managers had hoped for and expected.

Colts’ Offense Big Questions

Like the Colts, Denver’s defense will be missing a big name on Thursday night, as Randy Gregory was placed on IR this week. While that will hurt, Denver has been very stout on defense so far. The Broncos rank fourth, sixth, and first in half-ppr points surrendered to opposing quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, respectively. With Ryan playing inconsistently and the run game less of a factor minus Taylor, the Colts’ quarterback is not a recommended play this week. Nyheim Hines has traditionally fared well in games where he receives the bulk of the work, but may struggle against the Broncos as well. He’s a better play in PPR formats, but don’t count on him as anything better than his usual FLEX status. Pittman is still a WR2 play, but don’t expect the moon.

The Broncos have been a bit vulnerable to the tight end position, but here’s another team with questions at fantasy’s biggest headache position. Mo Alie-Cox is the nominal starter, but has been out-targeted by Kylen Granson. The picture gets even murkier inside the redzone, as tantalizing rookie Jelani Woods comes into play. The Colts make as good a dart-throw as anyone else at tight end, but there’s a good chance the one who scores will be one of the two you don’t choose. I’d pass this week unless you’re looking for a real obscure DFS play. The Broncos’ DST could be a better play across the board than you might have thought.

Betting Lines:

Favorite: Denver (-3)

Over/Under: Game- 42, First half- 20.5

Notable Props: Russell Wilson passing yards (225.5), Russell Wilson touchdown passes (1.5), Matt Ryan interceptions (0.5)

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