Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Week 7 Fantasy Market Report

We are back with the Week 7 edition of the fantasy market report. If you missed week 6, what were you thinking? But we are here for week 7, and we are looking for market values, which direction guys are trending, and how we can take advantage of the fluctuating values of fantasy players. Friendly reminder, Bull is trending up or strong value, and Bear is trending down or losing value. Let’s get your fantasy market needs satisfied fully.

Bull: Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill tear drops turn into fantasy gold

5-0, a 69.9 completion percentage, a 13:2 TD:INT ratio, and 1,368 yards passing. Add 5.1 yards per carry average along with 1 TD on the ground, and you are looking at fantastic numbers from a QB. QB6 per game numbers to be specific. And he has done so much of that damage without A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith. With that trio now healthy QB6 is the floor for Tanny moving forward

The hype is beginning to catch up to him, this may be the last week his value has not corrected itself accordingly. But this guy is someone you can feel comfortable heading to playoffs with. Henry keeps the pressure off him, allowing him so much freedom offensively. I know Taylor Lewan is out for the year, but the line remains a solid unit. Let people panic about Lewan and move Tannehill right into your loving waiting arms. Have you seen his wife? She is stunning. He must be a wonderful lover. Let him love your fantasy team on your way to the title. He is scoring under 7 points per game less than QB1 Russell Wilson. Reminder, that is his floor. Change the way you look at Tannehill moving forward, this guy is elite. He is outscoring Rodgers folks. Do you view him like that? Get glasses.

Bear: Ezekiel Elliott

Zeke gives me sad face in 2020 without that legendary offensive line.

Let’s be real here. Ezekiel Elliot is currently RB6 in PPR formats. That’s an RB1 by any measure. But Zeke lost Dak, and the Cowboys offensive line looks decidedly mortal this year. Elliot has not rushed for 100 yards in a game yet in 2020. He is averaging 4.1 yards per carry which is tied for a career-low, and already has 5 fumbles, which is one less than his career-high for an entire season. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, which is forcing them to get airborne earlier, where Zeke becomes one of many weapons in that offense. Over his last 4 games, he is only averaging 14.25 rushes per game and 4 yards per carry. Those are not Zeke level rushing numbers. He is seeing the targets, but only averaging 4.38 yards per target.

Which brings us to his fantasy market value. The name Zeke carries elite level RB weight. Can you convince anyone the Dallas defense is going to stop anyone, allowing Dallas to play with any leads, ever? Dalton is gonna wear his arm out this year. That is not good for Zeke’s bottom line. I guarantee someone in your league is convinced his talent is going to overcome this. Find them. Put Zeke on the block, and take that godfather offer all the way to the bank. The line is no longer what you think it is. And there are more receiving options than ever before. First the first time in his career, Zeke is legitimately a move option. Know when to sell, it’s now. Zeke has indigestion in 2020, he just isn’t eating like he used to. Probably because his generational line is no longer generational.

Bull: Phillip Lindsay

Lindsay’s value is going up since Melvin Gordon is an idiot.

Lindsay currently has 0 TDs through his two games played. But Melvin Gordon just got a DUI. Lindsay is finally healthy and he had a big day on the ground last week against the Patriots. 23 carries, 101 yards, 4.39 yards per carry. I like seeing that. The TDs will come. Gordon will miss games because of his off the field issues, and Lindsay will continue to do what he has always done with volume. Produce.

His career 4.9 yards per carry number show what he is capable of, and he’s coming off back to back 35 catch seasons. Don’t forget he has averaged 8.5 total TDs per year for the last two years. With Gordon out of the way, look for Lindsay to grab the reins and take off, forcing Denver’s hand to play him more as the season continues. Even when Gordon returns, Lindsay should continue receiving touches in an offense that needs more from its playmakers. Expect Lindsay’s lack of involvement in the passing game to change in a big way this week.

Bear: Le’Veon Bell

Bell is free from Gase at last. But expecting Pittsburgh Bell will give you heartburn later.

Oooh, ahhh, Bell signed with the Chiefs. Trade him today. Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t going anywhere. Add Bell to the treasure trove of weapons that offense has. Bell will likely get goal-line looks so he will have value, but people imagining Pittsburgh Steelers Bell in KC are gonna be sad. His volume won’t be nearly adequate to produce those types of numbers.

This fantasy market report hates Adam Gase just as much as the next fantasy market report, but it was 2017 when we last saw a Bell that was exciting. And the Jets stain may have ruined the end of Bell’s prime. CEH was the Chiefs first-round pick, in case you forgot, and he hasn’t delivered RB1 numbers. He is actually RB17 in PPR on a per-game basis. So now explain to me, if possible, why Bell should not only get the volume necessary to sustain RB1 level production over CEH, but he also should take away touches from Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and even Damarcus Robinson. He became a knife in the tool-shed, and people are looking at him like a samurai sword. He won’t be. Sell him for a back that will get more volume and save yourself the wonder of which week he is going to go off.

Bull: D’Andre Swift

Swift looked very swift. Swift looked strong, but also swift. And Swift looked elusive, but also swift. Ill stop kicking that horse now…

That is the game we were all waiting for. 14 carries, 116 yards, 2 TDs. RB1 numbers. Adrian Peterson is still around, but why in the wide world of sports would Detroit favor touches from a 35-year-old over a 21-year-old phenom. The fantasy market report can’t justify it. The time is now for Swift while the Lions have him on this rookie contract. He will continue to see more looks after that breakout performance, and he is trending up for the remainder of the year.

Swift possesses an 80 percent catch rate and has already seen 20 targets in his limited action. His dual-threat prowess is going to translate into fantasy production down the stretch, right when you need it. We don’t need reminding that Swift was many peoples rookie RB1 heading into 2020. He showed why last week, Detroit’s offense looks like they are beginning to gel, and Swift is going to get very expensive moving past next week when he proves last week wasn’t flukey. By then, it will be too late. Buy now, and watch that investment pay dividends the rest of the year. Detroit finally has their RB. Also, wtf Kerryon Johnson?

Bear: Tyler Lockett

Ohh, I hate including Lockett here, but hear me out, won’t you?

This kinda hurts me to include Lockett as a bear in this fantasy market report. He is currently the WR11 on a per-game basis in PPR, Lockett seems to be one of those perennially undervalued WRs, but have you seen D.K. Metcalf this year? He’s a monster. And for reason’s unbeknownst to this writer, Seattle seems fascinated with acquiring Antonio Brown. They seem to have a thing for former Patriots WRs with attitude issues. But the arrival of Brown hurts Lockett much more than Metcalf. And if they are serious about integrating Brown in, it will be Lockett who cedes the targets. Even if they don’t end up getting Brown, Greg Olsen has emerged as a viable target for Wilson and unless Metcalf gets hurt, Lockett is going to be relegated to the occasional masterpiece along with some average performances.

However, everyone wants a piece of this Russell Wilson nuclear offense, and Lockett could be an intriguing option for someone looking for WR help. He can fetch a pretty penny on the market right now because of his huge game potential, but that potential shrinks the second Brown enters the huddle. Don’t feel pressured to move Lockett if the price doesn’t make sense, but right now is an optimal time to test his waters and see what people value him at currently, compared to what his value could potentially be moving forward.

Week 7 approaches, dear reader. May your byes be behind you, your injuries heal quickly, and may you always know when to buy and sell. Thank you for the read, you can find me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and you can find all the great stuff Belly Up Fantasy does @BellyUpFantasy. Stay classy, fantasy football. And give me your feedback, right now! This is your fantasy market report, signing out until next week.