Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Fantasy Football

Week 7 Thursday Night Football Preview

Ok. I spent the first few weeks previewing the Thursday Night games harping on how good I thought the matchups were. The NFL really seemed like they were putting an effort into the product. There were some high-profile matchups with storyline intrigue over the first three weeks. It seemed perfect. Alas, the past three weeks have flipped that script. A scary injury to Tua Tagovailoa rendered the rest of Week 4’s game pretty meaningless in the larger context. The Weak 7 game (not a typo…) gave us two teams that may be battling for draft position already. And of course, Denver has Broncoed all over primetime, cursing each of the league’s evening slots in turn and single-handedly setting the game back decades. So, what are we to make of the Week 7 Thursday Night game?

To be honest, this game does offer some interesting storylines, if not top-of-the-standings heft. The Saints and Cardinals are a pair of 2-4 teams who desperately need a win to have any hope of turning their seasons around. Sounds like some fantasy teams with which I’m familiar… Anyway, fantasy managers have no easy task to navigate the Week 7 Thursday Night contest, with star players coming and going on the injury report and difficult decisions all around. Luckily, Belly Up Fantasy Sports has you covered. Read on.

Week 7 Thursday Night Preview: Saints’ Offense

With the Saints all marching into the training room, whoever can remain standing could provide a ton of fantasy points.

The New Orleans Saints have been hit by the injury bug about as hard as any team in the league. The Week 7 Thursday Night game does not come at a particularly opportune time for them. Their Week 1 starting quarterback Jameis Winston has been battling a back injury that has cost him the past three weeks. Winston still has not practiced in full with the team, but is expected to be active for tonight’s contest. Fill-in starter Andy Dalton suffered a back injury of his own in Week 6 and was limited throughout the week’s practices. He also is expected to be active, and could possibly start his fourth consecutive game. Whom he would be throwing to, however, is another matter.

Starting wideouts Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have both been ruled out. After missing last week’s game, the short preparation time for Week 7 was too much to overcome. Thomas has not played or practiced since leaving the Week 3 game with a foot injury. Landry injured his ankle in that same game. Although he gave it a go Week 4 in London, he has not played since. Starting tight end Adam Trautman will also miss Thursday after he sprained his ankle in Week 6. Chris Olave, who missed last week’s game in concussion protocol, has since passed the protocol and will be available.

Saints’ Offense Big Question

So, with all the injury questions, who will play (and who should we play in fantasy?) As of mid-day Thursday, the Saints still had not named a starting quarterback for the game, although attitudes seem to point to Dalton making his fourth straight start. No matter who starts, I’m not crazy about either quarterback at this time. Winston would offer the higher ceiling, Dalton most likely the safer floor. Neither is better than a low-end QB2 in Superflex or two quarterback leagues, especially in tonight’s game. If Dalton gets the start, it bodes better for Alvin Kamara‘s prospects. You’re probably playing him anyway, but Kamara has scored 41.8 points in two games with Dalton, as opposed to just 14.9 in two games with Winston this season. Use that how you will, but I’m monitoring the starting quarterback situation with interest.

As for the receivers, Olave should be started tonight, as he has emerged as the leading wide receiver regardless of injury situations. With so many other top targets missing, Olave figures to be a target monster and should see most of the high-leverage targets. The Cards’ D is good against opposing wideouts, so last week’s leading receivers are probably ignorable. Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Keith Kirkwood don’t offer more than a desperation dart-throw, even for DFS purposes. Juwan Johnson is the safer tight end play compared to Taysom Hill. While Hill offers a stratospheric ceiling, Johnson saw six targets last week and would actually see receiving targets in the redzone. (This is your weekly reminder that Hill has seen one actual target on the year and can disappear in his gadget role in any given game.)

Week 7 Thursday Night Preview: Cardinals’ Offense

Guess who’s back? Back again?

It’s been an interesting week for the Cardinals’ wide receiver corps. Star wideout DeAndre Hopkins returns from his suspension this week. What should have been a shot in the arm (too soon?) for a struggling offense will instead be more like a lifeline. Off-season addition and early-season leading receiver Marquise Brown will miss the next month or so. Brown fractured his foot in Week 6 and will not require surgery, but will miss time. Trading one star receiver for another isn’t ideal, but getting a player of Hopkins’s caliber back is always a welcome development. Add to that the trade for Robbie Anderson, and it will be a much different-looking pro set in the Week 7 Thursday Night game.

Adding to the Cardinals’ frustrations on offense is the will-he/won’t-he saga of starting running back James Conner. Widely expected by fantasy experts (including, emphatically, yours truly) to be the focal point of the Arizona offense, Conner’s fantasy usefulness has been limited by injuries and puzzling usage patterns. Conner is a game-time decision against the Saints, as is kicker Matt Prater. Arizona released Matt Ammendola and signed former Colt Rodrigo Blankenship to the practice squad as a contingency.

Cardinals’ Offense Big Question

Obviously, the first big question here is will Conner play? I’m wary of him even if he is eventually cleared. It’s not a great match-up against a Saints’ defense that has only allowed 17.0 half-ppr points to opposing running backs per game. That figure is tied for eighth-best in the league. On top of that, there’s always the fear of re-injury, especially when the decision comes this close to game-time. If he were truly ready, you’d think he’d have been cleared already. I’m content to look elsewhere. Eno Benjamin is most likely available if you need him and would be a low-end RB2/FLEX option. He didn’t impress last week against Seattle, despite taking 87.3 percent of the running back snaps.

The other question revolves around the pass catchers and their usage. Will Nuk slide right back into his undisputed number one role in the pass offense? How many snaps (and more importantly, targets) will Anderson see? Will Rondale Moore see another eight to ten targets as he has the past two weeks? Operating out of the slot, will he be ignored by the Saints’ defenders in favor of Hopkins and Anderson? And how does Zach Ertz fit into the new look? Ertz is TE3 thus far in the season. He is third among tight ends in targets. With Brown out, Ertz owns the highest remaining target share (21.0 percent) among healthy Cardinals’ pass catchers.

I see Kyler Murray, Hopkins, Ertz, and the Cardinals’ DST as must-plays. Whichever kicker gets the start is a good play, as is Moore in a pinch.

Betting Lines:

Favorite: Arizona (-1.5)

Over/Under: 44

Notable Props: Juwan Johnson receiving yards (25.2), Kyler Murray pass yards (209.8), Rondale Moore receptions (4.4)

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