Week of High Value Futures

Welcome back everyone for Day 3 of Belly Up Sports’ Week of High Value Futures. In this article series, I am digging through the weeds to find our readership seven high value future bets for the conclusion of the 2020 NFL season. Today I will address my pick to win the NFC. If you are looking to turn dimes into dollars, then this is the article series for you. That is because of the key term I used: “high value”.

High value future bets are bets that I believe have a very realistic chance of occurring. However, the betting lines offered by the sports book for these bets are much longer than I believe they should be. Future bets are one of the best ways to get a big payout in sports betting. That’s because oddsmakers continually get more and more pertinent information about teams and games as time passes. Therefore, as sports bettors, our best chance at finding a bet that will hit, with a long betting line, is in the futures. These bets are much more high-risk, high-reward.

So, if you’ve got some spare change that you want to turn into cold hard cash, follow along with me this week as I identify my favorite to win the NFC. And go check out my first two future bet recommendations from Day 1 and Day 2 of our Week of High Value Futures.

NFC Champions: Seattle Seahawks

For Day 3, I am looking into the crystal ball, ahead to the NFC Championship game. As of today, December 11, the Seattle Seahawks are being offered only the fourth best odds to win the NFC. On Draftkings Sportsbook their current odds to win the NFC are +750. That is a longer odds line than the ones being offered for the Saints, Packers, and Rams. However, I believe the Seahawks have a much better chance at winning the NFC than a +750 line would lead you to believe.

Why the Seahawks Will Win the NFC

Remember back to the beginning of the 2020 NFL season? Back when “Let Russ Cook” was the slogan of the league, and Wilson was being handed the MVP trophy on a silver platter. For Seahawks fans that probably feels like an eternity ago. That’s because Russell Wilson‘s play has slightly declined as the season has progressed. And now, the Seahawks are sitting at 8-4, fresh off a loss to the Giants.

For Seahawks fans this probably feels like a low point in the season. After a red hot 5-0 start, Seattle is 3-4, and has back-to-back lackluster performances against NFC East teams. That alone is a slap in the face, because in 2020, those not in it, should roll the NFC East. So yeah, the bad news for Seattle is they are sitting in a low point right now. However, that’s also good news. That means it should only get better from here on out.

Seattle should get back on track in Week 14. That’s because they get basically get a free late-season bye week playing the Jets. Then, they have a decently tough schedule with games against Washington, the Rams, and the 49ers. However, while they may get a lower seed, this schedule is not going to keep them out of the playoffs. And with Russell Wilson under center, that’s all you need.

How the Seahawks Will Win the NFC

So, with their remaining schedule, I don’t see any way Seattle misses the playoffs. Through many scenario variations with the ESPN Playoff Machine, I never found a viable situation where Seattle fell out of the NFC playoff picture. And that is key, because once the playoffs start, it’s a whole new season. And Wilson has shown many times before how dangeRUSS he can be in the postseason. There’s a long history of Wilson winning playoff games, leading 4th quarter comebacks, and thriving in road games.

However, what may be just as important as Wilson’s performance in the playoffs, is the re-emergence of the Seattle rushing attack. Seattle has been decimated at the running back position this season. Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Rashaad Penny, and Travis Homer have all missed time with injuries. At one point in this season, their fifth string RB DeeJay Dallas was getting first team reps. This brutally limited running game led Wilson to playing a lot of “hero ball” during the 2020 regular season. And Wilson is capable of winning games that way. However, just like anyone else, that style of play was not sustainable for him. Now Seattle has their full running back room healthy and ready to play again, just in time for the postseason.

If we look at the history of the league, there are certain indicators that show which teams are real Super Bowl contenders. And Seattle checks all the boxes on that list. They have an elite QB and top-tier Head Coach in Pete Carroll. Their power running game is now reaching full strength behind the legs of Carson and Hyde. And their defense is starting to look much more respectable after the acquisition of Carlos Dunlap and re-emergence of Jamal Adams. Therefore, I believe Seattle can win the NFC.

Why the Field Won’t Win the NFC

So, with Playoff Russell Wilson, a more respectable defense, and a power running game at their disposal, Seattle is absolutely alive to win the NFC. But, why won’t the other teams win it? Seattle currently has only the fourth best odds to win, so what’ll go wrong for everyone else? Well if you want the answer to that question, it only makes sense we start with the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans Saints

If you want an in-depth guide on how to blow it in the playoffs, good luck getting your hands on a Saints playbook. No team in sports has worse luck in the playoffs than the New Orleans Saints. It seems like every year they enter the playoffs among Super Bowl favorites. But, like clockwork, they find the most devastating way to get knocked out before even making the Conference Championship.

There was the hail mary to Stefon Diggs against the Vikings, the no-call pass interference against the Rams, and the no-call OPI against Minnesota in 2019. Since 2009, the Saints have almost exclusively been bounced from the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion. So, quite frankly, I would feel foolish taking the smallest betting line available to bet on a team to win the NFC when they will likely lose their first game because of a fumbled kneel down that turns into a 90-yard, game losing, hook-and-lateral play as time expires. Plus, Brees has missed quite a bit of time with a punctured lung and cracked ribs, so when he returns there’s a good chance this offense is out of sync.

Green Bay Packers

Okay, so the Saints are destined to lose in the playoffs in a devastating manner. But what about Green Bay? Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level and Davante Adams may be the best receiver in the league. Why would I not take them to win the NFC? This one is quite simple actually. Green Bay has a notoriously horrible run defense this year. And what do teams do in the playoffs once the weather gets cold? Right, they run the ball.

When I look around the NFC playoff picture I see quite a few dynamic running attacks that I don’t think Green Bay has a prayer of stopping. So Green Bay would likely have to try to win three consecutive games behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers, while the opposition controls the ball and the clock throughout the game. While I think that they can win this way once or twice, hoping they can do it three straight weeks does not feel plausible to me, especially with the talent around the NFC.

Los Angeles Rams

The last team I will address here is the LA Rams, as they are the only remaining team with better odds to win than Seattle. The Rams have looked very good this season. Sean McVay is again proving he belongs in the ranks of the NFL’s elite coaches. However, their demise this season may just come at the hands of another elite coach. I’m talking about Seattle’s Pete Carroll.

The Seahawks and Rams are divisional rivals in the NFC West. This means they play twice in the regular season every year. Also, with only one of these two teams being able to win the division, many likely outcomes will lead to these two teams facing off for a third time in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. And when two good football teams, with equally great coaching, know this much about each other, who emerges victorious when the games matter most?

I believe it will be the team with the better quarterback leading the team on the field. And between these two quarterbacks, I would challenge you to find anybody claiming Jared Goff is on Russell Wilson’s level. Again, I think Russell will elevate his play to another level come playoff time, and I don’t see Jared Goff being able to out-duel one of the greats when the stakes are the highest.

Claiming the Value

So, for all the reasons listed above, I believe the Seattle Seahawks will end the season as NFC Champions. They are a team built to thrive in the postseason. As the weather gets cold and wet, their ability to run the ball will prove extremely valuable. On top of that they have an improving defense, elite quarterback, and tough physical receivers to help ware opponents down. The other teams in the NFC just won’t be able to matchup with Seattle’s ability to win close games in the postseason. Therefore, the high-value future bet for Day 3 is Seattle to win the NFC at +750. As always, please bet responsibly, and good luck!

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