High-Value Future: Day Five

Welcome back everyone to day five of the “Week of High-Value Futures”. In this article series, I am identifying NFL future bets that I believe have a high-value to us bettors. That means I am scavenging through futures. Not to find the bets that are most likely to hit, but to find the ones that have a real chance to hit while boasting a large betting line. That means the bets are known as high-risk, high-reward. However, if, or when, these bets hit, the payouts on small wagers can be massive. 

So, if you want to place a small wager on each of my high-value future bet recommendations, you will likely only need one or two of them to hit in order to profit. Therefore, if you like the concept of this series, and want to read about my other future bet recommendations, check out day one, day two, day three, and day four‘s articles.

Day Five Bet: Minnesota Vikings Make the Playoffs

The year 2020 has brought on so much change in the world of sports. Sports have been played in bubbles. Players with multi-million dollar contracts have simply opted not to play their sport. Games have been cancelled and rescheduled at the drop of a hat. The NFL has added a seventh playoff team from each conference. While all of these crazy changes have not been ideal, it has certainly made for a more interesting year in sports. Even though teams at the top of the AFC and NFC may hate the addition of a seventh playoff team because it can take away a bye week, teams that are in the playoff hunt are salivating over that extra seventh-seed spot.

There may be no team more excited about the seventh-seed than the Minnesota Vikings. In previous years, the Vikings’ playoff hopes would already have died by this point in the season. With the Saints, Buccaneers, Rams, and Seahawks all likely to get double-digit wins this season, there simply wasn’t enough space at the table for a team like Minnesota. However, with this new seventh-seed up for grabs, Minnesota has legitimate playoff hopes and I think they’ll get it. My day five, high-value future bet of Minnesota to make the playoffs currently has odds of +305 on Draftkings Sportsbook.

Why Minnesota Will Make the Playoffs

Heading into Week 15, the Vikings currently have a record of 6-7. Normally, that record would not be good enough to earn a playoff birth. However, with the addition of that seventh playoff spot, Minnesota has a lot to play for in the last three weeks of the season. And while their record may not reflect it, Minnesota has a very talented roster that could potentially steal a playoff game if they make it in. They have an explosive offense headed by an unquestioned top five running back in Dalvin Cook. In addition to Cook’s elite running ability, Minnesota has one of the best receiver duos in the league with Adam Thielen and rookie phenom Justin Jefferson.

A team with this much offensive talent has to be 6-7 for a reason. And that reason is their defense. The Minnesota defense has been lackluster, at best, all season long. They couldn’t stop a nosebleed, and that has shown as they are letting up over 27 PPG. However, that may not be an issue that holds them out of the playoffs. That is because their remaining schedule includes the Bears, Saints, and Lions. While the Saints will certainly be a tough team to beat, Chicago and Detroit have both been bad this season. Minnesota beat both of these divisional rivals earlier in 2020, and I fully expect them to win those games a second time.

How Minnesota Will Make the Playoffs

We know Minnesota has an explosive offense and two winnable games on their schedule. How can we be sure that will be enough for them make the playoffs? In order to figure that out, we have to look at who else could steal that seventh-seed from them. First off, we can just scratch the NFC East. By rule, one team from that division will make the playoffs. To make an attempt at finding a way to get two of those dumpster fires in the playoffs is a fool’s errand. With current records and remaining schedules, it is virtually locked in that the Seahawks, Rams, Saints, Buccaneers, and Packers all make the playoffs.

That leaves one playoff spot left up for grabs. The only real contenders to claim it are Minnesota, Arizona, and Chicago. I’m really only including Chicago because they also have a 6-7 record. However, Chicago has looked much worse recently than they did when they started off hot. And with Mitch Trubisky having to play Minnesota and Green Bay in the last three weeks, I don’t even see them making it to 8-8. That’s just not good enough for the playoffs. Arizona, however, is the current odds-on favorite to claim the seventh-seed. Arizona’s odds to make the playoffs are currently -152 compared to Minnesota’s +305. This likely stems from the fact that Arizona has a one-game advantage on Minnesota with a 7-6 record. However, Minnesota holds the tie-breaker over Arizona so they only need to make up that one game difference to make the playoffs.

Why Arizona Won’t Make the Playoffs

Arizona has been one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. Kyler Murray is looking like he will develop into a superstar. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins has certainly been a game changer. In fact, Arizona is only in this position with a one-game advantage because of the Murray-to-Hopkins Hail Mary against Buffalo. However, I don’t think Arizona quite has enough to out-perform Minnesota down the final stretch of the season. This is mostly because Arizona has a much tougher schedule in the last three weeks than the Vikings do. Arizona has to play the Eagles, 49ers, and Rams to end the season.

How Arizona Won’t Make the Playoffs

Since Minnesota holds the tie-breaker over Arizona, they only need Arizona to lose two of these three games to make the playoffs, given that they beat Detroit and Chicago. I think its actually realistic that Arizona could lose all three games here, but betting on them to lose two is a play I’m comfortable with.

Los Angeles Rams

First, I’ll start with their Week 17 match-up with the Rams. The Rams are looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender and will likely be battling for home-field advantage in Week 17. Therefore, this won’t be one of those mail-in games and the Rams should win. They just have more depth of talent at every single level of their roster compared to Arizona, except for the quarterback position. Arizona is a developing team that will make noise in this division for years to come. In 2020, they aren’t quite on the same level as the Rams yet.

Philadelphia Eagles

Now in the scenario I am developing here, the Cardinals only need to lose to either the 49ers or Eagles in order for my day five, high-value future bet to cash. And I think Arizona could lose to either one of these teams. I’ll start with their Week 15 game against Philadelphia. Philly has been pretty bad this year. However, now that Jalen Hurts has taken over at starting quarterback for Wentz, they are a team reborn. In Hurts’ first start, he took down the NFC’s top-seeded Saints in Week 14. Teams have almost no film on Hurts, and his rushing ability adds a new dimension to the offense. We already saw this Arizona defense struggle with an offense centered around a running quarterback when they lost to Cam Newton and the Patriots. I think the re-emerging Eagles and Jalen Hurts can take down the Cardinals.

San Francisco 49ers

However, if the Cardinals do manage to beat Philly, they still have a real chance to lose to the 49ers. This is a divisional rival that made it to the Super Bowl last year. Now, they have been decimated by injury this year, which has led to them having a poor record. At their core, this is still a good team with an excellent coaching staff. The combination of Kyle Shanahan and Robert Salah is a tough coaching matchup for any team, but it’s even tougher for divisional rivals. Shanahan now has almost two full seasons of film on Kingsbury and Murray’s offense, including three head-to-head matchups. So this year, Arizona will have the personnel advantage, but the 49ers will have the coaching advantage. Therefore, I wouldn’t give either team any better than a 50-50 shot to win this game, so I’m comfortable betting on the 49ers as underdogs.

Claiming the Day Five High-Value Future

Minnesota has found themselves in a prime position to sneak into the playoffs. With the newly created, seventh-seed up for grabs, they have a lot to play for down the stretch. While there are obviously a ton of ways the season could play out, I see too much value on the Vikings making the playoffs at +305 to pass on this future bet. The Vikings essentially have to win just two games, and hope Arizona loses two games to make it in. I think Minnesota beats Chicago and Detroit, while Arizona loses to the Rams and either Philly or the 49ers, if not both. Once that occurs, the Vikings will be in the playoffs, and money will be in our bank accounts. If you do decide to tail my day five, high-value future bet, please bet responsibly. Good luck!

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