Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Fantasy Baseball, Featured

Weekend SP Streamers: So What Do We Do Here?

If you’re like me, you’re looking to stream as often as possible (within reason of course). With my primary being a points league, SP streamers are a no-brainer. Obviously, though, almost all league formats offer benefits to those who can stream successfully. I wanted to try to outline a few SP streams that I like for the weekend. I enjoy writing about streaming options and I’ll also be looking to stream myself this weekend to cap off what projects to be a tough matchup.

But….wow. I can’t lie, the streaming options this weekend aren’t great. My general preference is to find a decent pitcher with a good or great matchup. Because the bottom few offenses in baseball are so bad this year, I definitely lean in favor of matchup when choosing a stream. But this weekend we will unfortunately have to gamble. We have some sketchy pitchers with great matchups and some solid pitchers with poor matchups. Pick your poison. So with that being said, here are three streams that I’ll go for this weekend. Please comment on our site, socials, Reddit, or anywhere else with your own picks. I’d love to hear what you guys think and what streams you’re willing to gamble on.

Kyle Bradish (Orioles) @ Detroit Tigers (4/30)

This one seemed like a total no-brainer until I saw what Kyle Bradish did on Tuesday against the Red Sox. That one got ugly, real fast. Bradish finished with 2.1 innings pitched, allowing eight hits, four walks, and seven earned runs. He only struck out one. I was really excited for this Sunday’s matchup given the opponent and how Bradish looked in his previous outing. He’d had a 0.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP heading into Tuesday and had looked the part through an admittedly small 7.2-inning sample size. But while his latest appearance gives me pause, I still think I’ll be rolling with him this weekend.

As far as Bradish himself goes, there are some things to like. He has a full five-pitch mix, with all five pitches being used at a 10 percent rate or higher. His fastball, while hittable, can touch 96 and has a high spin rate with plus extension. He also has a slider with a fantastic movement profile, paired with another solid breaker in his curveball. The 26-year-old took his lumps in his first major league action last season. But a strong minor league track record adds a hint of legitimacy to his profile. Still, though, the fastball remains rather hittable. And outside of his two breaking pitches, none of the rest of his arsenal features anything in the plus category. He’s solid. Probably just okay. So why will I roll with him this weekend?

This one comes down entirely to matchup. The Tigers sit dead last in baseball with a truly unthinkable .603 OPS. Their pitcher-friendly home park doesn’t do them any favors, either. While Bradish himself has a lot to work on and will need to bounce back, the matchup couldn’t really be any better. Even if he were to slip up a bit, the chances of obtaining a win seem high. The Tigers are somehow managing to slug under .300 at home, averaging just 2.6 runs per game at Comerica Park.

While I’m not thrilled with Bradish himself, he’ll simply need to be “okay” to obtain a win. Given the other options this weekend, I like this one. For points leagues, it feels pretty safe given the Tigers’ dead bats. And for roto and category leagues, again, the chances of coming away with a win feel high. As a result, I feel like the floor here is pretty high. This, to me, feels like a safe stream. After his blowup this week, Bradish will likely be available in almost all formats, if he wasn’t already. Take advantage of the matchup here and look for a bounce-back outing against an offense that I cannot help but feel bad for. (Seriously, Tigers fans are awesome and don’t deserve this).

Mason Miller (A’s) vs Cincinnati Reds (4/30)

Mason Miller debuted about a week ago and his name has been in the headlines ever since. While his 2 earned runs through a quick 4.1 innings didn’t make for a flashy stat line, his stuff stole the show. A fastball that averaged 99 mph with a 2400 spin rate. A slider with some pretty awesome shape. And command that wasn’t half bad. Miller flew under the radar amongst fantasy baseball managers for quite some time. His debut wouldn’t have caught much attention, except it did. Because as soon as fantasy baseball managers went to Google looking for info on Miller, they learned about his unique arsenal. And against a red-hot Chicago Cubs offense, he did not disappoint.

Again, a 4.15 ERA and no decision probably doesn’t seem like much. But for a debut against one of the top offenses in baseball, there was a lot to like. The stuff was there for the entire outing, with Miller pumping 99 through his last frame. But what I really appreciated was the command. Poor command was an issue for Miller in college and is about the only thing stopping a pitcher with his level of stuff. Why am I bringing up college? Because Miller only has 28.2 minor-league innings to his name! We don’t have much to go off of, but he certainly passed the eye test. And as a bonus, like I mentioned before, the slider looks like a plus pitch. I worry about the hefty difference in MPH between his fastball and slider. But he also has that cutter to (somewhat) split the difference in velocity.

Miller’s second outing against the Angels, however, was not quite as friendly to the stat sheet. While he only had one bad frame, Miller’s volatility was on display. He gave up 4 runs in a forgettable first inning but rallied back, with three quality scoreless innings to follow. He allowed 6 total base runners but struck out 6, and showed some maturity bouncing back after a rough start. Miller’s youth, lack of track record, and team situation make him a gamble. But his stuff offers an upside that we can’t find elsewhere on waivers. This Sunday, he’ll be facing the Cincinnati Reds at home, and I’ll likely be streaming him.

The Reds’ lineup features very few real threats, and their .661 OPS puts them at 26th in the MLB. While the Reds have still managed to do some damage this season, most of that has been at their hitter-friendly home park. Their .571 OPS in away games is one of the most dreadful in baseball. While Miller isn’t necessarily a matchup-dependent pitcher at this point, it’s hard to argue for a much better opponent here. Still, he’ll have to be dialed in if he wants to reach 5 innings and qualify for, much less obtain a win. There is a real possibility here that Miller can overpower a dead Reds lineup. I’ll take my chances based on other options, and see if this one can pay off.

Vince Velasquez (Pirates) @ Washington Nationals (4/29)

What if I told you that Vince Velasquez has actually been really, really good lately? Through his last three starts, Velasquez has pitched 19 innings. In that time, he’s allowed just three runs and 17 total baserunners, while striking out 23. He’s even come away with a win in all three of those outings. Being a 30-year-old journeyman and spending amble time as a reliever sure doesn’t inspire confidence. But sometimes we have to ride the hot hand, and credit to Velasquez because he’s been great. Not to mention, the Pirates have provided plenty of run support to their pitchers so far this season. A top-10 offense in Pittsburgh has surprised many, but the first-place Pirates keep getting it done.

At this point, the book is very much out on Velasquez’s stuff. While his fastball isn’t exactly a plus pitch, it has some nice rise action and is supplemented by 3-4 other pitches. None of his slider, changeup, curveball, or sinker are awesome pitches necessarily. But what’s been encouraging to see is an adjusted pitch mix. Velasquez has primarily gone to his fastball, slider, and changeup this year, opting not really to use the sinker or curveball at all. While I don’t think this is some revolutionary change, as none of those pitches are fantastic, I like that he’s giving the scouting reports a new look. I think a mix-up like this can have benefits for an older pitcher. The slider in particular has had a massive usage uptick and has seen great results.

As is the theme with these write-ups, however, it’s the matchup that makes it worthwhile here. The Nationals, you guessed it, have been awful this season. With a .653 team OPS, there are very few clubs that have hit worse (aside from the aforementioned ones) to start this season. And the National’s OPS is actually even worse at home than it is on the road. And, believe it or not, they hit quite well against lefties (.757 OPS). But Velasquez being a righty bodes well here, as the Nationals’ drop-off against righties is steep (.605 OPS). All-in-all, this matchup looks fantastic on paper. I still don’t fully trust Velasquez, but he’s been on a roll lately, and all the factors heading into Saturday seem to favor him. Of all the options for the weekend, I trust this one the most.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as the MLB season heats up. I’ll have more waiver wire content and early-season analysis coming. But in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at waiver wire options after the first few weeks of games. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!