Julio Jones just pretty much told the world he’s out of Atlanta live on Undisputed. So if there’s a Julio Jones trade, what would that for fantasy?

Julio Jones’s Value

This probably isn’t good news for Julio owners. He’s currently the alpha on the team that had the 5th-most passing yards in 2020. Having Matt Ryan as his QB, a below-average defense, and poor run-game put him in a pretty ideal position for fantasy purposes. The odds are that he’s going to go into a similar or worse situation. For example, there have been many rumors of a trade with New England. In that run-first offense with a rushing QB and a great defense, I’d imagine Julio’s targets drop off significantly. However, if he ends up in Buffalo, he could more similar production.

Matt Ryan’s Value

Matt Ryan got a boost with the drafting of Kyle Pitts, but losing an elite WR in Julio definitely hurts. Many of his worst fantasy games last year were when Julio was out. Acquiring Pitts may soften the blow, but this move may have just pushed him out of the QB1 tier for me.

Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts

Last year, Ridley didn’t appear significantly better or worse without Jones. He seemed to be able to live up to being the team’s WR1. I wouldn’t expect that to change this year and would still love to have him as the WR1 on my team.

Gage seemed to struggle without Jones last year. With less coverage on an offense that throws a lot, Julio’s presence may have helped Gage’s production. That being said, if Julio goes soon, that could give the coaching staff time to scheme their offense in a way that works better for Gage as the WR2. I’d expect a slight bump in his fantasy value, especially if he lowers his 2020 drop rate of 8.2 percent according to Rotowire. Yikes!

Kyle Pitts is a big unknown. He’s a TE rookie. We’ve all heard the narrative of tight ends needing years to develop in the NFL but we also known Pitts seems like a generational talent and we’ve seen guys like Evan Engram be fantasy beasts in their rookie years. To be honest, I think it’s really tough to tell. Pitts’ fantasy draft positions are already all over the place. Not having seen how the Falcons planned to use him makes it even tougher to tell how Julio’s departure would have affected him. He’s probably going to get more looks from Ryan, but also more coverage from opposing defenses. Ultimately, I’d call it a wash for now.

Wrap-Up

It’s a momentous occasion when someone of Julio’s caliber leaves the team he’s been on for about a decade. However, at this point in his career, it makes sense that he’d want to try to win a championship before he retires, and I don’t fault him for thinking Atlanta won’t take him there any time soon.

Unfortunately, I don’t think a Julio Jones trade is fantastic news for any fantasy Falcons owners, though some may see slight bumps. It definitely isn’t great news for the Falcons organization, although they still have some good assets remaining. Mike Davis and Hayden Hurst may get some more usage too, though I’m still not expecting anything huge. However, where Julio ends up could definitely help and hurt some pieces over there.

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